The five-digit label 78745 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZIP ZORI stands at $1,517 per month, 1.8% below the same month a year earlier. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,713. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease ledger or median paid by current households. ACS is instead a survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The gap is therefore an evidence-universe difference before it supports a local rent conclusion.
The direct ZIP ZORI path is cooling, but its horizon changes the interpretation. Exact same-month annualized change is negative 1.8% at one year and negative 3.0% at three years, whereas the five-year annualized change remains positive 0.9%. Recent direction therefore confirms the intermediate decline while breaking from the longer positive path. The series has 100% coverage, which removes missing-history uncertainty rather than market uncertainty. The annualized variability of monthly returns comes to 2.8%, so a single current ZORI reading warrants measured confidence. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 10.4%, showing that the path has had a materially deeper historical retreat. In transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum is 2,814, stability is 1,284, and balanced standing is 2,566; lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom segmentation provides a usable ladder only as a model. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,207 for a studio, $1,279 for one bedroom, $1,517 for two bedrooms, $1,922 for three bedrooms, and $2,261 for four bedrooms. They are not measured bedroom rents, and the two-bedroom result aligns with headline ZORI by construction rather than independent confirmation. The HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard; it is not asking rent and it does not record signed leases. It supplies relative bedroom scaling, not a claim about unit availability, condition, concession terms, utility responsibility, or rent achieved by any specific property.
Income and burden evidence point to a separate affordability tension. Under the arithmetic 30% screen, supporting the current $1,517 monthly asking index requires $60,680 of annual income. That screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Against the ZCTA's $86,109 median household income, the implied annual asking-rent-to-income share is 21.1%. Yet ACS reports 7,195 of 16,268 occupied renter households paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent, a 44.2% burden share. Since that survey captures occupied homes and selected utilities rather than current ZORI listings, neither its burden rate nor the ZIP-wide income screen proves affordability or cost for a particular household or unit.
The matched ZCTA had 31,805 housing units in the ACS survey, including 19,225 single-family units and 5,892 units in large multifamily structures. Its 1,512 vacant units translate to a 4.8% overall vacancy rate; 769 were classified as vacant for rent. Renters account for 53.7% of occupied homes, so rental occupancy is material within this mix. These counts describe a survey area and vacancy categories, not a live available-rental feed. In particular, a vacant-for-rent count does not establish that a chosen unit is available, comparable in size or condition, offered at ZORI, or carrying a concession. Nor does the aggregate composition identify the stock behind the current asking index.
Broader rent contexts place the ZIP below each named comparator, but cannot be substituted for ZIP evidence. The Austin city context rent is $1,615, the Travis County context rent is $1,649, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro context rent is $1,653. Those are city-, county-, and metro-scope context values, respectively, while the Zillow reading is ZIP scope. Their common direction makes the ZIP's lower current asking index visible, but geographic scope, rental mix, and source universe prevent them from functioning as direct rental comps. They do not alter the ZCTA survey measures or the HUD administrative standard.
Resale data corroborate some cooling but remain a separate for-sale observation. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale window, the median sold price was $464,895, down 3.8% year over year. There were 220 homes sold, median marketing time was 52 days, inventory was 355 homes, and months of supply was 4.9. The average sale-to-list result was 97.4%, and 7.0% of sales closed above list. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions or property economics. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.9%, solely a cross-source screening ratio, never a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The sale-price decline confirms the recent ZORI direction, while the distinct sale activity and supply figures challenge any attempt to treat the affordability screen as a resale-liquidity conclusion.
Several limits prevent a property conclusion. ZORI does not identify the bedroom, lease duration, utilities, parking, fees, condition, or concessions in a candidate listing; ACS cannot be used as a live rent roll; HUD does not price a transaction; and Redfin cannot produce rental comparables. Address-level review needs to confirm ZIP assignment versus the statistical ZCTA match, current competing asks for genuinely similar bedroom and lease terms, utility and fee treatment, availability, and any concession language. A sale analysis separately needs matched closed-sale records, list histories, and physical-property facts. The reported history describes the past and does not project either future rent or resale results. Which of those property-level facts would most change the interpretation of the current snapshot?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's ZIP asking-rent index has declined 1.8% over one year and 3.0% annualized over three years, even as its five-year annualized change remains positive 0.9%. That configuration supports a cooling classification in the observed history, but not a claim that every rental segment has repriced identically. Complete series coverage improves continuity; it does not turn backward-looking values into a forecast.","title":"Cooling is clear at shorter horizons"},{"body":"The $60,680 income figure is the annual income that places the current monthly ZORI at a 30% arithmetic screen. It differs from the ACS result, where 44.2% of occupied renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. ZORI is an asking index, while ACS measures occupied homes and includes selected utilities; neither statistic identifies an individual applicant's affordability.","title":"Affordability measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The published studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly estimates derived by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent size progression, but they are not observed bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent series, so the ladder cannot demonstrate availability, lease pricing, or concession treatment.","title":"Bedroom rents are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale data show a lower median sold price from the prior year alongside measurable transaction volume, supply, and below-list average sale outcomes. That directional price movement aligns with the recent ZORI decline, but it remains evidence about for-sale transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and does not establish property-level rental economics.","title":"Resale direction aligns with cooling but is not rental evidence"}],"risks":["The ZIP label and matched ZCTA are not identical geographies, so boundaries, delivery ZIP usage, and survey composition can differ from the Zillow market identifier used for current asking rents.","ACS represents a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a blended asking index; their gap cannot establish renewal rents, concessions, or individual household costs.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from ZORI and HUD standards, not measured by bedroom. Unit condition, lease length, utility responsibilities, fees, and comparable availability could materially alter an address-level quote.","Redfin observations are direct ZIP resale data for a rolling three-month window, not rental transactions. Sales pace and pricing therefore cannot validate lease rents or turn the screening ratio into property-level economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a Zillow ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS 2024 is a five-year Census ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The geographic match is statistical rather than delivery-ZIP identical, so the difference is not a direct apples-to-apples rent gap.","q":"Why is the current asking-rent index below the ACS gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. The classification describes recorded ZORI history: one- and three-year same-month annualized changes are negative, while the five-year change remains positive. Monthly-return variability and the historical drawdown show that the series has moved meaningfully over time. Those measurements do not forecast future asking rents, lease renewals, or achieved transaction rents.","q":"Does the cooling classification mean rents will continue falling?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly estimates generated by scaling the ZIP-wide blended ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom progression, but no direct survey or listing evidence confirms those amounts for a specific unit. HUD's administrative FMR/SAFMR standard is not an asking-rent dataset or a record of signed leases.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be interpreted?"},{"a":"It adds a direct ZIP-level view of the for-sale market: sold-price direction, number of homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It can confirm or challenge broad directional narratives, but it is not rental evidence. The ZORI-to-sale-price calculation is only a screening ratio and cannot determine a cap rate, net return, property yield, or expected return.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 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