ZIP 78753’s current tension is a lower asking-rent reading alongside a still-material burden profile. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI was $1,253, down 7.8% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level rent roll or a utility-inclusive household payment measure. The 78753 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters before treating the current index and survey household measures as observations of precisely the same geography.
The rent history shows that the recent decline extends a longer negative path rather than breaking from it. Exact same-month ZORI change was negative over one year at 7.8%, over three years at 7.4% annually, and over five years at 0.7% annually. Monthly changes generated 3.7% annualized volatility, so one current rent snapshot warrants moderate caution even with full historical coverage. Separately, the history’s maximum drawdown was 20.9%, indicating that the series has experienced a materially larger retreat than the latest annual comparison. Coverage was 100%. The transparent national discovery ranks were 2,902 for momentum, 2,364 for stability, and 2,864 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks representing higher placement among history-eligible ZIPs. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ACS matched ZCTA reports median gross rent of $1,502, making the current ZORI 16.6% lower, but the two figures should not be treated as conflicting rental quotes. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; ZORI is an asking-rent index. The difference can reflect source scope, timing, occupied versus marketed homes, rental mix, and utility treatment. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR standard is $1,852, and ZORI is 67.7% of that amount. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so it is useful for a standardized ladder but not as evidence that typical listings are priced at that level.
Using the local HUD bedroom ladder to scale the ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates, not measured bedroom rents: $997 for a studio, $1,057 for one bedroom, $1,253 for two bedrooms, $1,588 for three bedrooms, and $1,867 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom result aligns with the all-types ZORI by construction and should not be interpreted as a direct two-bedroom market observation. At the current all-types asking-rent index, the arithmetic income screen at 30% of gross income is $50,120 annually. That screen is only arithmetic: it is neither affordability advice nor an applicant qualification rule, and it does not account for utilities, deposits, debt, household size, or the rent and concession terms of a particular unit.
The matched ZCTA’s housing base adds context to the burden result. Of 25,638 housing units, 24,538 were occupied and 1,100 were vacant, for a 4.3% vacancy rate. The stock included 9,331 single-family units and 7,407 units in larger multifamily structures, indicating that neither form alone describes the available housing base. Renters occupied 16,354 homes, or 66.6% of occupied housing. Among renter households, 9,070, or 55.5%, reported paying 30% or more of income toward gross rent. This is a population-level ACS burden measure, not proof that a particular unit, lease, or renter household is burdened; it also covers gross rent rather than Zillow asking rent.
Broader geography provides a useful, but non-substitutable, price frame: Austin city context asking rent was $1,615, Travis County context asking rent was $1,649, and Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro context asking rent was $1,653. Each is wider-context evidence, not a ZIP rental comp. The ZIP’s renter share was above the city and county context shares, while its burden share was also above the corresponding broader survey measures. That combination keeps the local affordability tension visible despite the lower current ZORI. The metro context’s apartment vacancy rate was higher than the ZIP ZCTA’s all-housing vacancy rate, but those measures differ in both geography and housing universe, so they cannot establish local apartment availability.
Direct ZIP resale evidence points to a for-sale market that is also not showing a strong pricing acceleration. In Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $359,919, down 1.3% year over year; 70 homes sold, with median marketing time of 58 days. Inventory was 111 homes and months of supply stood at 4.8. The average sale-to-list ratio was 96.4%, while 10.3% of sales closed above list price. These are resale liquidity and negotiation signals, not rental transactions, rental comps, or property economics. In combination with the negative ZORI history, softer resale price movement and below-list average sales confirm a broad recent cooling signal, but they do not resolve the ZCTA’s elevated renter-burden measurement.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals a 4.18% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield because it omits operating costs, financing, vacancy, taxes, insurance, maintenance, ownership structure, and unit-specific rent. The main interpretive limit is that the packet combines an asking-rent index, a survey of occupied renter homes, an administrative HUD standard, wider geographic context, and direct resale observations; each answers a different question. Property-level review would need the actual bedroom count, unit type, lease term, included utilities, concessions, asking date, condition, and directly comparable active listings or recent sales before applying these ZIP-level signals to a specific home or rental.
","findings":[{"body":"The latest annual ZORI decline is not an isolated reversal. Same-month rent changes were negative across the one-, three-, and five-year windows, while the historical drawdown shows that the index has experienced deeper deterioration than the latest annual move. Measured volatility means the current reading is informative but should not be treated as a precise lease quote or a stable endpoint.","title":"Recent rent weakness follows the longer path"},{"body":"Current Zillow asking rent sits below both ACS median gross rent and the HUD two-bedroom standard, yet the matched ZCTA reports a majority of renter households paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent. This is not a contradiction: Zillow measures asking rents, ACS measures occupied renter homes with selected utilities, and HUD publishes an administrative standard.","title":"Affordability measures point in different directions for valid reasons"},{"body":"Renters represent roughly two-thirds of occupied homes in the matched ZCTA, and the burden share is elevated relative to broader context. Housing includes both single-family and larger multifamily stock, while the all-housing vacancy rate should not be converted into a claim about availability or pricing for any one apartment, house, or lease term.","title":"Renter concentration and burden remain central to the ZIP screen"},{"body":"The rolling three-month Redfin ZIP observation shows a year-over-year decline in median sold price, extended marketing time, months of supply, and an average sale-to-list result below parity. Those details are direct for-sale observations. They support the rent history’s softer direction, but cannot be used as rental transaction evidence or as a measure of property-level return.","title":"Resale conditions support a cooling interpretation but are separate evidence"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the bedroom mix, utilities, concessions, lease term, condition, or timing of a particular available unit.","ACS burden, renter share, vacancy, and gross-rent measures are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, carry sampling uncertainty, and do not describe a current applicant or specific dwelling.","The modelled bedroom ladder scales the ZIP ZORI with HUD standards. It is not measured bedroom rent evidence and should not substitute for contemporaneous comparable listings.","Redfin resale metrics are direct rolling-three-month for-sale observations only. Median price and the rent-to-price screening ratio omit property costs and cannot establish cap rate, net return, or expected return."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, tenant occupancy, utility treatment, and rental composition can all produce a difference without either source being incorrect.","q":"Why is the current Zillow rent below ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for a standardized comparison across bedroom sizes, but they are not measured asking rents, signed leases, or direct rental comps for any individual bedroom category.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual market rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen that calculates the annual gross income associated with spending 30% of income on the current monthly Zillow asking-rent index. It is not financial advice, a measure of household affordability after expenses, or an applicant qualification rule used by a landlord or property manager.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"No. It only divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the ZIP median sold price from Redfin’s resale observation. The ratio does not include acquisition costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance, financing, vacancy, turnover, utilities, management, or a property’s actual rent. It is therefore a cross-source screening ratio, not a property yield or return estimate.","q":"Does the Redfin rent-to-price screen show investment return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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