At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 78757 is $1,851 per month, a 5.1% exact same-month increase from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it summarizes advertised-market movement rather than the rent of a specified unit. The one-year rise is an acceleration against the 0.4% annualized change over three years and the 3.6% annualized change over five years. In backward-looking terms, recent direction therefore confirms that the longer path remains positive while breaking from its much weaker intermediate pace; it does not establish a future rent path.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA for this report. A ZCTA is a statistical area used for tabulation, not an area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the Census ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,723; it describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, rather than current asking rents. ZORI is 7.4% above that gross-rent median, a gap that can arise from these different populations, timing, and payment definitions. For wider context only, Austin city’s reported rent context is $1,615, Travis County’s is $1,649, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro context is $1,653; none is a substitute for the ZIP index.
Bedroom sizing requires another universe, not an assumption that Zillow directly measured each unit type. The modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,473 for a studio, $1,561 for one bedroom, $1,851 for two bedrooms, $2,346 for three bedrooms, and $2,759 for four bedrooms. They scale the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder; the FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,852. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Accordingly, the displayed ladder is a set of modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and its close alignment at two bedrooms is a construction result rather than independent market confirmation.
The affordability screen is similarly arithmetic. Annualizing the current ZORI produces $22,212, and the 30% payment-share calculation produces a $74,040 required income; the matched ACS ZCTA median household income is $103,860. This comparison is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. It sits beside, rather than replaces, the ACS burden evidence: 1,902 of 4,544 occupied renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold, or 41.9%. Those are survey-based household results, not proof that a particular unit is affordable, unaffordable, or available to any individual.
The ZCTA housing profile adds supply composition without turning vacant counts into a listing feed. ACS reports 11,985 housing units, a 5.4% vacancy rate, and a 40.1% renter share. Its structure counts are led by single-family units, with a smaller large-multifamily segment; that mix is a stock description, not a rent-type breakout for ZORI. The survey also identifies 135 vacant units for rent, but the count does not establish the location, price, condition, lease terms, or current availability of any specific home. This profile remains distinct from the city, county, and metro context figures and from Redfin’s active resale listings.
The historical series contains 125 observations with 100% stated coverage, letting the one-, three-, and five-year comparisons use the exact same calendar month. Its annualized volatility of monthly returns is 3.1%, and its maximum drawdown was -4.8%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,169 for momentum, 1,825 for stability, and 1,503 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks place higher. These are descriptive discovery tools, not performance judgments. Together with the drawdown, the variability reduces the confidence that a single current rent snapshot alone represents a durable level. All history metrics are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale evidence pulls in a different tension. Redfin’s direct rolling three-month ZIP observation reports a $700,342 median sold price, up 9.9% year over year, alongside 107 homes sold and a median 54 days on market. It also records a separate inventory measure of 159 homes, 134 pending sales, and 4.5 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio is 96.97%; 13.5% of sales closed above list, and 31.9% went off market within two weeks. This is for-sale market evidence, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. Rising resale prices sit beside rents that have accelerated, while below-list average outcomes and the recorded marketing time qualify any simple claim of uniformly urgent resale conditions.
A cross-source screen annualizes ZIP ZORI and divides it by the Redfin median sold price, producing 3.17%. It is only a screening ratio across an asking-rent index and a resale statistic, not a statement about property income, costs, or transaction outcome. The sale-price increase confirms the positive one-year rent direction behind this screen, while the below-list average resale outcome challenges any reading of it as evidence of frictionless transaction conditions; it also does not alter the arithmetic affordability screen. The rent’s muted intermediate history means neither signal stands alone. ACS sampling uncertainty, ZORI’s blended inventory, HUD’s administrative design, and the resale window all limit precision. Property-level comparison would need the quoted rent, utilities and concessions, bedroom count, property type, condition, lease date, sale terms, and list-price history. Which of those unobserved details would most change the comparison for the specific property under review?
","findings":[{"body":"The latest annual ZORI advance is materially stronger than the subdued three-year pace and above the longer five-year growth rate. This makes the recent pattern an acceleration within backward-looking rent history, not an outlook. Because the path also includes measured variability and a prior drawdown, the current index should be understood as a current observation rather than evidence of a fixed future level.","title":"Acceleration interrupts a subdued middle period"},{"body":"Zillow, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. ZORI is a ZIP-level blended asking-rent index; ACS gross rent is a survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities; and HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The near comparison between the asking index and the HUD-derived bedroom estimate follows the model design, while the ACS comparison reflects different timing and payment definitions.","title":"The rent measures are not interchangeable"},{"body":"Resale data show higher year-over-year median sold price alongside measurable transaction volume and a stated supply level, but average sales occurred below list and only a minority closed above list. That combination supports neither a rental interpretation nor a simple urgency narrative. It confirms that the for-sale series has its own price and liquidity signals, which must remain separate from asking-rent and household-survey evidence.","title":"Resale signals are positive but not uniformly urgent"},{"body":"The income screen translates an area-level asking index into an arithmetic payment-share threshold; it does not judge a household or qualify an applicant. Survey burden results show many occupied renter households above that payment-share cutoff, while stock and vacancy counts describe the aggregate ZCTA. None of these aggregates identifies the price, utilities, condition, or availability of a particular property.","title":"Affordability and vacancy remain aggregate evidence"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so its movement can differ from a specific property’s quoted payment, concession structure, included utilities, lease term, bedroom mix, physical condition, and actual availability.","ACS estimates cover a statistical ZCTA over a multi-year survey period and carry sampling uncertainty; they are not a current inventory count, and they cannot establish circumstances for a specific unit or household.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation records for-sale transactions and listings rather than leases. Its price and liquidity measures cannot supply rental comparables, operating expenses, property income, or terms for a rental decision.","The income threshold is a mathematical screen based on area measures. It omits household-specific resources, other debts, utility arrangements, concessions, and the terms that determine an individual applicant’s actual payment obligation."],"qa":[{"a":"The five-digit market label serves two matching purposes in this report: Zillow’s ZIP rent market identifier and the Census ZCTA match for ACS tables. A ZCTA is a statistical area created for tabulation, whereas a USPS delivery ZIP is a mail-routing construct; their boundaries and purposes are not identical.","q":"What geography does the five-digit label represent in this report?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for maintaining a transparent relationship across bedroom sizes, but they are not measured bedroom rents, lease quotes, or evidence of availability at a specific property.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for available apartments or homes?"},{"a":"No. The Redfin series is a direct rolling three-month ZIP observation of for-sale resale activity. Its sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures do not document rental transactions, operating costs, property income, or the terms of any lease.","q":"Does the Redfin resale block measure rental market activity?"},{"a":"Aggregate evidence cannot establish the rent, utility treatment, concession, condition, bedroom count, lease start, or availability of a particular home. Property-level review would need the exact advertised payment, included charges, unit configuration, date of quote, and relevant sale or listing terms before comparing a unit with these area-level series.","q":"What property-level information remains necessary for comparison?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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