At June 2026, the five-digit label 78758 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. Zillow ZORI stands at $1,578 per month, after a 1.4% same-month decline. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a reading on any one available home. Against the matched area’s $74,381 median household income, annualizing the index and applying a 30% housing-cost share produces a $63,120 required-income screen; the index is 25.5% of that median income. This is arithmetic, not advice, a prediction of household spending, or an applicant-qualification rule. Still, the difference between that aggregate screen and documented renter burden creates the central tension: a typical asking-rent snapshot can look moderate while many renter households face a heavier realized load.
The backward-looking ZORI history does not show a cleanly stable path into the current reading. Exact same-month changes were negative over one year at 1.4%, over three years at 3.6%, and over five years at 0.03% annually. The latest yearly decline therefore continues the negative direction seen across the medium-term period rather than breaking from it, although its pace is less negative than the three-year rate. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.4%, indicating that month-to-month changes have been meaningful enough that a single current ZORI observation deserves moderate caution. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 15.4%, documenting a material historical pullback. Coverage is complete across 114 monthly observations. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,777 for momentum, 2,170 for stability, and 2,793 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher; these are relative discovery tools, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ZCTA used for the ACS match is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Its ACS median gross rent is $1,663, making current ZIP ZORI 5.1% lower, but those figures do not measure the same universe. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks a typical observed asking-rent index. HUD’s FY 2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent standard is $1,852, with ZORI 14.8% below that amount. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so neither the ACS gap nor the HUD gap establishes a concession, a unit-level bargain, or a lease-price forecast.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,256 for a studio, $1,331 for a one-bedroom, $1,578 for a two-bedroom, $2,000 for a three-bedroom, and $2,352 for a four-bedroom. These are not measured bedroom rents, and they should not be treated as a rent-comp set. Their practical use is to preserve the local HUD bedroom spacing while anchoring the resulting estimates to the all-types ZIP ZORI level. Actual asking rents can differ because ZORI is blended across rental types and because a particular listing’s included utilities, lease terms, condition, and availability are not represented in the ladder.
The matched ZCTA is renter-heavy: renter-occupied homes represent 73.8% of occupied housing. Its housing stock includes both single-family units and large multifamily units, a composition that reinforces the importance of not reading the ZORI index as a single-property measure. The overall vacancy rate is 5.6%, and 722 vacant homes are designated for rent, but that aggregate count does not prove availability, pricing pressure, or turnover at a particular building. Burden data sharpen the affordability tension: 8,945 of 18,947 renter households, or 47.2%, report paying 30% or more of income toward gross rent. Because this survey measure concerns occupied households and gross rent, it cannot be assigned to an individual applicant or unit, but it does show that the index-to-income screen is not a complete affordability description.
Broader rents sit above the ZIP reading: the Austin city context rent is $1,615, the Travis County context rent is $1,649, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro context rent is $1,653. These city, county, and metro figures are wider-scope context only, not substitutes for ZIP-level rent evidence. The ZIP’s renter concentration also exceeds the available Austin city and Travis County renter-share context, making the local occupied-renter survey especially relevant when interpreting burden. At the same time, the ZIP vacancy rate is closely aligned with the Austin city context rate. The comparison supports a description of 78758 as below those broader asking-rent benchmarks, but it does not identify why levels differ or establish a rent outcome for any particular property.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs entirely to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $414,906, down 0.9% year over year, with 79 homes sold and a median 54 days on market. Inventory was 123 homes, equal to 4.7 months of supply versus 5.2 months in the metro context. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.3%, and 9.1% of sales closed above list price. Those resale signals broadly confirm a less forceful pricing backdrop alongside the ZORI decline and historical drawdown, while the ZIP’s slightly lower supply than metro context complicates any uniformly soft reading. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.6%, but this is only a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Several limits remain material. ZORI is an aggregate asking-rent index; ACS is a lagged survey of occupied renter households; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin describes aggregate ZIP resale activity. None measures a specific home’s live asking rent, operating costs, lease renewal terms, or sale proceeds. A property-level review would need to confirm the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, condition, availability, and comparable recent sales or listing terms relevant to the property. It would also need to separate an advertised price from a signed lease and a listed sale price from a closed sale. The remaining decision question is whether the specific unit’s current terms align with these distinct ZIP-level signals without treating any one source as a substitute for unit evidence?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI is $1,578 monthly, while the matched area’s median household income is $74,381. Applying a 30% housing-cost share to annualized ZORI produces a $63,120 required-income screen. That comparison is arithmetic only. It does not describe a household’s debts, utilities, family size, lease terms, or qualification outcome, and it is materially incomplete beside the renter-burden survey result.","title":"Current rent screen is below income median but not a complete affordability test"},{"body":"The one-year ZORI change is negative, as are the exact same-month three-year and five-year annualized changes. The one-year decline is milder than the three-year annualized decline, but it does not reverse the broader negative direction. Monthly-return variability and a 15.4% maximum drawdown mean the present index should be read as a snapshot within a historically uneven path, not as a forecast.","title":"History shows a negative medium-term path with meaningful drawdown"},{"body":"ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The fact that ZORI is below both the ACS gross-rent median and the HUD two-bedroom standard does not make those values interchangeable, nor does it determine a live listing’s rent.","title":"ACS, HUD, and ZORI answer different rent questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show a modest year-over-year decline in median sold price, marketing time of 54 days, and an average sale-to-list ratio below parity. Those figures are consistent with less aggressive resale pricing. However, ZIP months of supply is slightly below the metro context, which complicates a blanket interpretation. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure remains only a cross-source screening ratio.","title":"Resale evidence is soft but not uniformly loose"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it cannot verify an individual unit’s current asking rent, concessions, included utilities, lease duration, condition, or actual signed lease outcome.","The ACS geography is a Census ZCTA statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year occupied-household survey may differ from current ZIP listings in timing, utilities, and household composition.","Bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents and can diverge from live listings with different features or lease structures.","Redfin describes rolling-three-month ZIP resale activity, not rental transactions or property economics. Median sold price and the rent-to-price screen cannot establish financing, expenses, net income, or a result for a particular home."],"qa":[{"a":"It represents a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for describing the current asking-rent backdrop, but it is not a specific listing price, a tenant’s signed rent, an estimate of utilities, or evidence about the terms available for one property.","q":"What does the current Zillow ZORI figure represent?"},{"a":"The difference is not a direct rent discount because the sources cover different populations and concepts. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is a current asking-rent index. Timing, occupancy status, rental mix, and utility treatment all remain different.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent higher than the current ZORI reading?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the all-types ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve relative bedroom spacing from the administrative ladder but do not measure signed leases, active listings, concessions, or unit-specific characteristics.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed market rents for 78758?"},{"a":"It should be kept in the for-sale universe. The data describe direct ZIP resale prices, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. Comparing annualized ZORI with median sold price can screen cross-source relationships, but it does not measure rental transactions, expenses, returns, or property-level economics.","q":"How should the Redfin resale information be used alongside rental evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area 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