At $1,433 per month, the June 2026 Zillow Observed Rent Index for 78759 has declined from a year earlier. That asking-rent signal contrasts with Redfin’s direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation, where the median sold price was $702,376 and rose 3.9% year over year. Annualized ZORI divided by that sale price is a 2.45% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The main decision tension is that recent asking rent has weakened while reported ZIP resale pricing has increased.
The complete Zillow history contains 136 observations and 135 consecutive monthly returns. Exact same-month rent changes were -4.9% over one year, -4.8% over three years, and 0.2% over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from the essentially flat longer five-year path rather than confirming it. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.4% means a single current ZORI reading warrants measured confidence, while the historical maximum drawdown of -15.9% shows that declines have been materially deeper at times. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,901 for momentum, 2,113 for stability, and 2,831 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a survey of occupied homes. By contrast, the matched ACS five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,727, including selected utilities, which is 20.5% above current ZORI. HUD’s two-bedroom administrative standard is $1,852, or 29.2% above ZORI; HUD FMR or SAFMR is bedroom-specific program administration, not asking rent. Those distinctions prevent the three rent figures from being treated as interchangeable.
The bedroom presentation is a modelled ZIP estimate built by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder, not a set of measured bedroom rents. It produces monthly estimates of $1,141 for a studio, $1,209 for one bedroom, $1,433 for two bedrooms, $1,816 for three bedrooms, and $2,136 for four bedrooms. The ladder is useful for maintaining a locally consistent size relationship, but it cannot identify the actual rent of a particular floor plan, building, lease term, condition level, or utility package. Its purpose is comparative screening across bedroom counts rather than replacement of unit-specific asking-rent evidence.
The matched ZCTA’s median household income is $102,400. Applying the stated 30% screen to annualized ZORI produces required income of $57,320; this is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports 11,631 renter households, of which 43.0% had gross-rent burdens of at least 30%; that aggregate burden statistic cannot establish what any particular renter or unit experiences. Wider context should remain named by scope: the Austin city context has a $1,615 rent reading, the Travis County context has $1,649, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX metro context has $1,653. Each is context only, rather than a substitute ZIP rent measure.
Housing-stock evidence is also aggregate ZCTA evidence. The area contains 23,444 housing units, including 1,459 vacant units, for a 6.2% vacancy rate. It is renter-majority, and the structure mix includes 11,227 single-family units and 4,057 units in large multifamily structures. The vacancy rate is above the Austin city and Travis County context rates but below the metro apartment-vacancy context. That comparison identifies different aggregate availability conditions across scopes; it does not prove that a particular vacant unit is rentable, appropriately priced, in suitable condition, or available on a desired move-in date.
Redfin’s ZIP resale evidence should stay entirely in the for-sale universe. During its rolling three-month observation, 132 homes sold with a median marketing time of 37 days, and inventory was 166 homes. Months of supply stood at 3.8, expressing listed resale inventory relative to the observed sales pace rather than a projection of future conditions. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.2%, while 22.7% of sales closed above list price. These measures describe resale transaction tempo and pricing signals, not rental transactions or property economics. Rising median resale price challenges a simple reading of the recent ZORI decline, but the resale evidence does not establish that asking rents and sale prices will move together.
Several limits remain material before applying these ZIP screens to a property. Confirm the property’s delivery ZIP and whether its geography aligns with the statistical ZCTA match; verify the advertised bedroom count, current asking rent, lease duration, included utilities, and whether concessions affect the quoted figure. For a resale comparison, check the individual transaction’s list-price history, timing, address eligibility within the ZIP observation, and whether it is comparable to the property under review. ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin answer different questions at different levels of aggregation. Which gap—unit-specific rent, lease terms, or transaction comparability—would most change the interpretation here?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP asking rent weakened over the latest year, while Redfin’s reported median resale price increased. This divergence is decision-relevant because the annualized rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio. It cannot reconcile rental and resale markets, identify operating costs, or describe the economics of an individual home.","title":"Rent and resale signals diverge"},{"body":"Same-month ZORI changes show declines over one and three years after a nearly flat five-year result. Historical variability and the recorded drawdown indicate that the current asking-rent snapshot should not be treated as a stable endpoint. Full observation coverage improves the completeness of the history, not its predictive power.","title":"The recent rent path is not the long path"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures use the local HUD ladder to scale ZIP ZORI. That produces a consistent bedroom relationship for screening, but it does not measure rents signed or advertised for actual units. Unit quality, lease timing, utility treatment, building type, and concessions remain outside the modelled estimates.","title":"Bedroom values are modelled, not observed rents"},{"body":"ACS burden, vacancy, tenure, and structure figures describe the matched ZCTA population and housing stock. They are useful for identifying aggregate conditions and comparisons, but they do not verify availability, affordability, or resident circumstances for a specific unit. The ZCTA itself is statistical and may not match USPS delivery boundaries.","title":"Aggregate burden and vacancy require restraint"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, whereas ACS gross rent represents occupied renter homes with selected utilities. Treating either measure as a direct substitute for the other can distort a unit-level comparison.","The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. A property can require geographic verification before ZIP-level rent, survey, vacancy, or demographic screens are applied to it.","Redfin’s measures are direct ZIP resale observations from a rolling period, not rental transactions. Median sold price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list evidence cannot establish rent, expenses, or leasing conditions.","Recent rent declines occurred within a history classified as high variability and including a sizable drawdown. A current asking-rent observation may move materially without demonstrating a durable future direction."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference does not demonstrate an error, a concession pattern, or the rent for any specific available unit.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent higher than the current Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling current ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD’s ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent survey. The resulting figures provide a size-based screen but should not be represented as measured rents for a particular apartment, house, or lease.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"The history is complete across the available observation sequence and shows recent same-month declines after a nearly flat five-year outcome. Its annualized variability and maximum drawdown show that asking-rent readings have not followed a smooth path. The current value is therefore a useful observation, but not a forecast or a stable property-specific benchmark.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current ZORI value?"},{"a":"Redfin describes the ZIP’s direct for-sale market through rolling resale observations: sold prices, sales count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not rental evidence. The sale-price increase contrasts with the recent ZORI decline, but that tension is descriptive only and does not establish a causal relationship or future movement in either series.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data be interpreted alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area 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