ZIP 79109 presents a measured split between a firm recent asking-rent reading and a resale market whose price signals are not uniformly aggressive. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,109, up 6.0% on the exact same-month one-year measure. The three-year annualized change is 4.6%, while the five-year annualized change is 5.7%; recent direction therefore confirms, rather than breaks from, the longer upward path. Monthly changes annualize to 3.0% variability, which argues against treating one current index observation as perfectly precise, even with a relatively contained worst peak-to-trough drawdown of 2.7%. History coverage is 99% with 97 consecutive monthly returns. Momentum holds a transparent national discovery rank of 269 and the balanced measure ranks 481 among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher; these are backward-looking discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The current asking-rent index should not be merged with the affordability survey. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $986 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZIP asking index is 12.5% above that ACS median, but the sources differ in timing, rent definition, and occupied-versus-listed housing coverage. At a 30% required-income screen, the current ZORI translates arithmetically to $44,360 in annual income; this is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS reports that 51.9% of surveyed renter households, or 4,066 of 7,835, spent at least 30% of income on gross rent. That burden result describes surveyed households and cannot establish affordability for a particular unit or household.
The five-digit 79109 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Within that ACS ZCTA, the housing inventory contains 20,582 units, including 18,570 occupied units and 2,012 vacant units, for a 9.8% vacancy rate. Its structure mix includes 14,015 single-family units and 2,687 units in larger multifamily buildings. The ACS also identifies 1,002 units as vacant for rent. Those figures describe a survey-based stock and vacancy composition, not a live listing count, unit condition, lease availability, or the probability that any specific rental can be secured. Vacancy likewise cannot prove that a particular apartment, house, or price point is available.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $780 for a studio, $905 for one bedroom, $1,109 for two bedrooms, $1,507 for three bedrooms, and $1,747 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD administrative standards range from $778 for a studio to $1,742 for four bedrooms, with a $1,106 two-bedroom standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, and the resulting ladder is not a set of measured bedroom rents. The two-bedroom model’s closeness to the all-type ZIP index follows the scaling method; it does not validate an actual two-bedroom asking-rent level, utility package, location, or lease term.
Broader rent context places the ZIP below each surrounding benchmark, but those comparisons remain contextual rather than local substitutes: Amarillo city context has an asking-rent index of $1,278, Randall County context is $1,426, and Amarillo, TX metro context is $1,282. Each geography covers housing beyond this ZIP, with different rental compositions and boundaries. The gap is useful for framing the ZIP’s current index relative to wider city, county, and metro measures, but it does not reveal why the values differ or whether a specific property should trade at a citywide, countywide, or metrowide level. The ZIP’s own ZORI, ACS, HUD, and resale series should retain their separate evidentiary roles.
Redfin provides direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, not rental transactions. Its median sold price is $259,891, rising 9.8% year over year, with 165 homes sold and a median 49 days on market. Inventory stands at 131 homes after a 23.3% annual decline, while months of supply are 2.4. The average sale-to-list ratio is 97.3%, and no reported sales closed above list price. This creates a useful tension: the sale-price increase and reduced inventory broadly align with the rent history’s upward direction, but marketing time and the below-list average challenge an unqualified reading of resale pressure. The 5.1% annualized-ZORI-to-median-sold-price screening ratio is only a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Several limits matter before combining these signals. ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents across mixed rental types, the ACS is a five-year survey of occupied homes, HUD supplies an administrative bedroom ladder, and Redfin observes completed ZIP resale activity over a rolling period. None supplies a matched rent roll, operating statement, property condition assessment, or unit-level utility bill. Concrete property-level checks should establish the actual advertised rent, bedroom and bathroom configuration, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, availability date, recent leasing evidence, physical condition, and any seller disclosures or listing changes. Those checks are necessary because a modelled bedroom estimate, a survey median, and a sold-home median each answer different questions.
The decision-relevant reading is therefore not that all measures point in one direction. Instead, the ZIP has a current asking-rent index that has continued a positive multi-year historical path, paired with substantial ACS renter-burden incidence and a resale market showing both higher sold prices and less uniformly forceful transaction signals. Variability means the current rent snapshot deserves confidence as a broad ZIP indicator, not as a precise quote for every rental type. The wider geography benchmarks and the resale screening ratio can organize comparison, but neither replaces direct unit evidence. Can the actual property’s current rent, utility treatment, lease terms, condition, and recent comparable activity support the specific conclusion being considered?
","findings":[{"body":"The one-year ZORI increase exceeds the annualized three-year rate and is close to the annualized five-year rate, so the latest movement continues rather than reverses the longer measured path. However, annualized monthly variability and the observed drawdown show that the current ZIP index remains a snapshot with movement around its trend.","title":"Recent rent direction extends the longer history"},{"body":"The ACS gross-rent median is lower than the current ZIP asking-rent index, but the measures cover different universes. ACS concerns occupied renter homes and selected utilities, while ZORI summarizes observed asking rents. The required-income calculation is arithmetic, and the renter-burden share is a household survey statistic rather than evidence about a specific available unit.","title":"Survey affordability is meaningfully separate from asking rent"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom estimates were generated by scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. Their apparent precision should not be mistaken for observed asking rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, and actual unit rents can vary with utilities, floor plan, condition, lease terms, and listing timing.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled through HUD standards"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a higher median sold price and lower inventory, which are directionally consistent with the rent-history record. Yet the marketing period, average sale-to-list discount, and absence of reported above-list closings temper that alignment. The rent-to-price figure is strictly a cross-source screening ratio, not property economics.","title":"Resale evidence is supportive but not uniformly tight"}],"risks":["The ZIP asking-rent index blends rental types and does not identify the rent, condition, utility treatment, availability, or lease terms of a particular studio, apartment, townhouse, or single-family rental.","ACS ZCTA figures are five-year survey estimates for a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and their occupied-home gross-rent measures may not match current asking-rent conditions.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from HUD administrative standards, not observed bedroom-level listings, so apparent agreement between a modelled estimate and the all-type index should not be treated as validation.","Redfin resale evidence covers sold homes in a rolling ZIP period, not rental transactions or operating costs; price, inventory, and sale-to-list signals cannot establish the economics of a specific property."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, housing coverage, and rent definitions mean the two values are complementary context, not interchangeable estimates of the same lease.","q":"Why is the Zillow rent figure different from the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. Actual bedroom-specific asking rents require unit-level evidence on size, utilities, condition, concessions, and lease structure.","q":"Are the bedroom rents observed asking rents?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s median ZIP sold price, making it a cross-source screening ratio for comparing a broad rent index with a broad resale median. It excludes expenses, taxes, financing, vacancy, maintenance, property condition, and unit matching. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"What does the rent-to-sale-price screening ratio show?"},{"a":"They describe ACS ZCTA survey-based housing and household conditions, not the availability or affordability of a particular rental. Vacancy counts include different vacancy categories, while burden measures describe surveyed renter households spending specified shares of income on gross rent. Both should be paired with current unit availability, advertised terms, and utility details.","q":"How should the vacancy and renter-burden figures be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":747.145857},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":745.940428},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":736.23279},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":733.534694},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":735.566721},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":747.112651},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":750.5356},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":749.25411},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":762.731668},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":763.569175},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":769.485042},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":759.459529},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":753.245051},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":748.329648},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":757.461498},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":760.390264},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":761.861169},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":757.317262},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":757.648406},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":769.066952},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":768.335208},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":777.009036},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":775.605325},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":783.346578},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":778.304787},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":777.925033},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":784.066931},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":788.495448},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":782.405824},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":774.122512},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":778.98359},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":790.41129},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":809.75772},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":806.723086},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":801.067683},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":818.615982},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":833.908197},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":842.686462},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":843.612366},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":842.334317},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":862.960573},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":868.961151},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":887.451652},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":887.625998},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":885.614382},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":886.548707},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":906.660227},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":922.090491},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":940.926902},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":954.181031},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":975.210393},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":974.10348},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":987.263258},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":971.262408},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":968.226276},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":963.15748},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":970.379948},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":976.782627},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":981.805101},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":975.849623},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":967.013112},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":972.678974},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":969.18272},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":983.278177},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":984.496284},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1000.138759},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1001.953734},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1017.047883},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1016.452283},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1013.84233},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":999.726796},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1002.665813},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1008.437058},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1010.165751},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1017.0654},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1018.608832},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1023.617722},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1029.052948},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1027.508254},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1025.861518},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1022.3746},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1027.574463},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1038.138064},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1040.382374},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1042.153922},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1047.067269},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1046.260557},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1045.074681},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1045.562796},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1044.535444},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1053.946539},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1057.913252},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1068.409518},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1073.162628},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1080.358872},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1087.976602},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1095.474899},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1100.198499},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1109.233165}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":99,"firstPeriod":"2018-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":100,"coverageRatio":0.99,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1046.260557,"endRent":1109.233165,"change":0.06018826532136967,"cagr":0.06018826532136967},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":969.18272,"endRent":1109.233165,"change":0.14450365458434922,"cagr":0.04601776703560345},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":842.334317,"endRent":1109.233165,"change":0.316856196659028,"cagr":0.05659285698018368}},"maxDrawdown":-0.027492924287409348,"annualizedVolatility":0.03047477902763162,"consecutiveReturnCount":97}}