For 79424, the defining measured tension is a high current asking-rent index alongside a clear deceleration in its own history. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,631 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a lease-specific quote. Exact same-month history records a one-year annualized change of 0.66%, a three-year annualized change of 1.36%, and a five-year annualized change of 2.17%. Rents therefore remained above the prior-year level, but the recent direction breaks from the longer path: the one-year pace is below both multi-year measures. That is a backward-looking slowdown, not a forecast of the next lease renewal or market movement.
The historical series supports confidence in the continuity of the measurement, while also limiting confidence in any single current rent snapshot. It contains 111 observed months with 97.4% coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability is 1.59%, indicating relatively narrow month-to-month index movement during the covered period. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 1.95%, showing the largest recorded retreat from a prior peak rather than a prediction of future decline. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place momentum at 2,011, stability at 15, and the balanced measure at 977; lower ranks are higher. These ranks describe past measurements, not investment quality, recommendation, or expected performance.
The current Zillow reading should not be treated as interchangeable with the ACS median gross rent of $1,218. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow ZORI represents observed asking rents across rental types. The asking-rent index is 33.9% above the ACS measure, a difference that may reflect their distinct populations, timing, and rent definitions rather than a change for a particular household. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces monthly estimates of $1,255 for a studio, $1,379 for one bedroom, $1,631 for two bedrooms, $2,229 for three bedrooms, and $2,667 for four bedrooms. The HUD FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $990, placing the current ZIP index 64.7% above that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, so neither it nor the scaled ladder establishes what a particular available unit should command. The ladder is useful only for maintaining local bedroom spacing around the ZIP-level index.
Area-level income provides a second tension. Median household income in the matched ACS geography is $97,231, while annualizing the current asking-rent index produces a 20.1% asking-rent-to-income screen. At a 30% rent-share screen, $1,631 per month translates arithmetically to required annual income of $65,240. This is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule, and it is not evidence of an individual renter’s income. Meanwhile, 3,530 of 6,839 surveyed renter households, or 51.6%, reported spending 30% or more of income on rent. That burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter households, not the affordability or condition of a specific vacant home.
The housing base adds context without proving availability. The matched ZCTA has 23,427 housing units and a 5.7% vacancy rate, with 18,007 single-family units and 1,717 units in large multifamily structures; renters account for 31.0% of occupied homes. For wider context only, Lubbock city has a $1,401 asking-rent context, a 48.8% renter share, and a 9.4% vacancy rate; Lubbock County has a $1,405 asking-rent context; and the Lubbock, TX metro has a $1,405 asking-rent context with median household income of $63,629. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-geography context, not substitutes for ZIP evidence. Their lower asking-rent contexts contrast with 79424, while differing tenure and vacancy structures caution against direct equivalence.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents a separate for-sale-market tension. Through June 30, the median sold price was $324,927, up 5.8% year over year, while 338 homes sold with a median 38 days on market. Redfin recorded 287 homes of inventory, down 16.3% from a year earlier, and 2.6 months of supply. Its sale-to-list signal shows 0.0% of sales above list price. These are resale liquidity and pricing observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 6.0% cross-source screening ratio only. Faster resale-price growth alongside slower one-year asking-rent growth challenges any simple reading that the rent history and resale market are moving at the same pace.
Several limits remain material before applying these ZIP measures to an address. Verify that the property is actually assigned to the relevant USPS delivery ZIP, then confirm the unit’s bedroom count, lease asking rent, included utilities, concessions, availability date, and physical condition. Compare any proposed rent with currently advertised units that match the property type and bedroom count, rather than with the modelled ladder alone. For a resale comparison, check recent closed transactions for building type, lot, condition, sale date, and listing terms because Redfin aggregates direct ZIP sales. Neither vacancy, rent burden, ZORI, ACS, HUD standards, nor resale activity proves the economics of a particular unit. Which address-level facts would materially change the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZIP ZORI is $1,631, but the one-year exact same-month annualized change of 0.66% trails the three-year 1.36% and five-year 2.17% readings. This indicates a historical deceleration rather than a decline. Strong coverage and low measured variability improve confidence in the series, but do not make it predictive.","title":"Recent asking-rent growth has slowed"},{"body":"Zillow’s asking-rent index stands 33.9% above the ACS median gross rent of $1,218. The difference is decision-relevant because Zillow covers observed asking rents across rental types, while ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Neither source independently establishes the rent of a specific available property.","title":"Asking rent and surveyed gross rent are materially different measures"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen for the current index is $65,240 at a 30% rent share, below matched-area median household income of $97,231. Yet 51.6% of surveyed renter households reported rent burdens of at least 30%. Area median income and aggregate burden should therefore be read as separate context measures, not as applicant-level affordability evidence.","title":"Area income screen and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a $324,927 median sold price, 5.8% annual price growth, 2.6 months of supply, and no sales above list price. Those for-sale observations contrast with the ZIP’s subdued one-year rent growth. The 6.0% annualized-rent-to-sold-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and not a property return measure.","title":"Resale pricing is firmer than the latest rent-growth pace"}],"risks":["The ZIP asking-rent index blends rental types and is not a matched set of available homes, so a particular unit’s bedroom count, utilities, condition, and lease terms can differ substantially from the index.","ACS gross rent and renter-burden results are survey-based five-year measures for occupied households, meaning they should not be used as current asking-rent quotes or proof of affordability for any specific applicant.","Low historical variability and a shallow past drawdown describe the observed ZORI series, but the slowing one-year growth rate means historical stability should not be converted into a future-rent assumption.","Redfin resale figures concern closed for-sale transactions in a rolling three-month ZIP observation; they do not establish rental demand, property-level operating costs, or the value of a rental home."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,631 Zillow ZORI reading is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking the market’s asking-rent level and history, but it is not a lease quote, a bedroom-specific measurement, or confirmation of what an individual property can rent for.","q":"How should the current Zillow rent figure be interpreted?"},{"a":"ACS reports median gross rent for occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities, while Zillow records an asking-rent index. The $1,218 ACS measure and $1,631 Zillow measure therefore represent different populations, periods, and definitions. Their gap should not be interpreted as a direct increase for the same homes.","q":"Why is the ACS gross-rent figure lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"Redfin supplies direct ZIP for-sale evidence, including sold price, homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It helps distinguish resale-market conditions from rental-market conditions. The contrast between 5.8% sold-price growth and 0.66% one-year rent growth is a measured tension, not evidence that either market will continue in that direction.","q":"What does the Redfin evidence add to the rental analysis?"},{"a":"Confirm the address’s delivery ZIP, bedroom count, unit type, actual asking rent, utilities, concessions, availability, and physical condition. Then compare genuinely similar current listings and recent closed sales by property type and timing. These checks are necessary because ZIP indices, survey medians, HUD standards, and rolling resale aggregates cannot determine the economics of an individual home.","q":"What property-level checks are most important before using these figures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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anges":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1620.621829,"endRent":1631.358388,"change":0.006624962596379014,"cagr":0.006624962596379014},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1566.726208,"endRent":1631.358388,"change":0.041253015153494,"cagr":0.013566132853708224},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1464.96976,"endRent":1631.358388,"change":0.11357819973021166,"cagr":0.021748818184035068}},"maxDrawdown":-0.019544190143829798,"annualizedVolatility":0.015943980641310865,"consecutiveReturnCount":109}}