Rent and resale are moving at visibly different speeds in 79936. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI was $1,480 per month, a 3.7% increase from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is neither a register of signed leases nor a median for every available unit. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That geography and the index’s blended construction make this a current market signal, not a statement about any particular address.
History gives the current reading a measured backdrop. Over the direct Zillow ZIP history through the stated endpoint, same-month annualized rent changes were 3.7% over one year, 3.2% over three years, and 6.0% over five years. The series has 62 observations and 100% coverage. The latest direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, yet its rate falls below the five-year pace rather than demonstrating renewed acceleration. Annualized monthly-return variability measured 2.6%, so historical monthly movement was comparatively contained within this series; the maximum drawdown was 1.3%, a separate measure of its worst peak-to-trough retreat. That history supports somewhat more confidence in reading one current index snapshot as not dominated by large prior swings, but it does not make the snapshot a forecast. The transparent national discovery ranks were 808 for momentum, 912 for stability, and 501 for balanced performance among history-eligible ZIPs, with lower ranks higher; they are discovery labels, not investment recommendations.
The matched Census ZCTA provides a distinctly different lens. Its ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,264 among occupied renter homes, with selected utilities included in that concept. Current Zillow asking index at $1,480 stands 17.1% higher, but the gap is not a contradiction and cannot validate a specific listing: ACS observes occupied households over a multiyear survey window, whereas ZORI tracks typical current asking rents across blended rental types. The ACS estimate has survey sampling uncertainty as well. HUD FMR/SAFMR answers another question entirely: it is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an observed asking-rent series. Keeping these universes separate prevents an occupied-home median, a standard, and an ask index from being treated as interchangeable.
Bedroom presentation should be read as a model, not an inventory of measured unit rents. By scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, the modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,020 for a studio, $1,259 for one bedroom, $1,480 for two bedrooms, $1,915 for three bedrooms, and $2,483 for four bedrooms. They use the FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR relationship to distribute the ZIP-wide index across bedroom sizes. The two-bedroom result matches the headline index by construction. None of these is a measured bedroom rent, a lease comparable, or proof that units at those prices are offered. The ladder simply creates a transparent size-adjusted screen from two different source concepts.
The income and burden data create the key renter tension. A 30% required-income screen applied to the current monthly asking index produces $59,200 in annual income, below the ZCTA median household income of $67,198; the asking-rent-to-income screen is 26.4%. This is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Yet ACS reports that 5,119 of 10,414 renter households, or 49.2%, faced gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. The aggregate burden statistic does not prove a particular unit is unattainable or reveal any household’s circumstances. It instead cautions that a ZIP-level income comparison can coexist with substantial survey-reported pressure among occupied renter homes.
Supply composition adds scale but not a unit-level conclusion. The ZCTA has 36,663 housing units, including 29,766 single-family units and 2,004 large multifamily units. Its vacancy rate is 3.7%, with 388 units classified vacant for rent, while renter-occupied homes account for 29.5% of occupied housing. These ACS stock and vacancy measures cannot establish live availability, condition, concessions, or the vacancy of a given building. For wider rent context, the citywide El Paso figure is $1,521, while both the countywide El Paso County context and metro-wide El Paso, TX context are $1,528. Those city, county, and metro measures describe broader scopes only and should not replace ZIP evidence.
Resale data does not mirror the rent path. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $230,333 median sold price, up only 0.2% year over year, contrasting with the current rent-index change and challenging any simple reading of the income screen as an ownership result. It counted 160 homes sold with a median 33 days on market, 315 active listings, inventory of 129 homes, and 2.4 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 98.6%, and 24.4% of sales closed above list. Those are direct for-sale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price yields a 7.7% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or evidence of property-level economics. The near-flat resale price change confirms a rent-versus-sale-price tension rather than resolving it.
Limits are material before any property-level conclusion can be drawn. Neither the Zillow index nor the modelled ladder identifies a live unit, and neither survey aggregates nor the resale record supply its condition, included utilities, lease length, concessions, floor plan, availability date, or actual prior transaction terms. A property-level analysis would need to verify the live asking amount, bedroom designation, utility treatment, and lease obligations against directly comparable currently marketed units; for a resale, it would also need the specific address’s listing, sale, financing, tax, insurance, repair, and operating facts. This packet contains no such property record. Aggregate vacancy, burden, city/county/metro context, and the rent-to-price screen must remain screens rather than conclusions about a home. The unresolved question is whether the specific unit’s documented terms align with the ZIP-level signal without crossing these source boundaries?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index rose 3.7% from the same month a year earlier. That continues the positive multi-year direction, but it trails the 6.0% five-year annualized pace. Complete series coverage, limited historical variability, and a shallow drawdown support a stable-growth description. These are backward-looking index measurements, not a prediction of future rents, demand, or investment results.","title":"Asking rent is rising, but the longer run decelerated"},{"body":"At the ZIP-level index, a 30% arithmetic screen sits below the ZCTA median household income. In the ACS renter-home survey, however, roughly half of renter households report burdens at or above that threshold. The apparent difference does not identify the payment capacity of an applicant or the economics of a unit: asking rent, survey gross rent, household composition, utilities, and timing are different evidence universes.","title":"Aggregate income screen and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by applying the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom pattern to Zillow ZORI. They describe a scaling exercise, not observed bedroom rents or lease comparables. HUD’s ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, while ZORI is a blended asking-rent index. A property’s actual rent can differ because its terms, included utilities, condition, availability, and unit type are absent here.","title":"Bedroom figures are a HUD-scaled model"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation records resale activity only. Its modest annual price change contrasts with the current asking-rent increase, while transaction count, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list measures provide direct for-sale liquidity signals. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is a cross-source screen only. It omits operating costs and does not establish a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.","title":"Resale evidence is active but not rental evidence"}],"risks":["The geographic correspondence is analytical rather than delivery-based: Zillow uses ZIP market 79936 while ACS uses a matched ZCTA. A ZCTA is statistical and can differ from a USPS delivery ZIP, so boundary-sensitive comparisons have limits.","ZORI captures a blended typical asking-rent signal, whereas ACS gross rent reflects occupied renter homes and selected utilities. Neither source supplies live concessions, lease terms, availability, or a measured rent for an individual bedroomed unit.","Housing vacancy and burden are area aggregates with survey uncertainty. They cannot verify a particular unit’s availability, condition, included utilities, tenant payment burden, or the practical cost facing a particular household.","Redfin records rolling-three-month resale observations. Its rent-to-price screen leaves out financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, operations, and property-specific facts; it is therefore not a cap rate, yield, or return measure."],"qa":[{"a":"ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities in gross rent. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP asking-rent index blending rental types. Occupancy, timing, utility treatment, and statistical sampling differ, so the two figures are useful context but should not be substituted for one another.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates obtained by scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not observed leases, advertised unit medians, or property comparables. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative standard, not a measurement of current asking rent.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"The required-income result divides annualized ZIP asking rent by the stated threshold, making it an arithmetic market screen only. The ACS burden share reports survey results among occupied renter households. Those broad measures can point in different directions and cannot qualify an applicant or establish whether a particular listing is attainable.","q":"How should the income and burden measures be read?"},{"a":"No. It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price, combining two sources that describe different markets. The calculation excludes property-specific price, expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy experience, and lease facts. It is a screening ratio, never a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"Can the rent-to-price ratio be used as a property return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1103.532382},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1104.97208},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1100.717692},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1102.12485},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1117.676718},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1139.934166},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1156.125141},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1155.135518},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1153.796426},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1160.97756},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1193.274423},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1205.90816},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1210.361129},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1225.770905},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1253.826575},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1278.761985},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1294.612271},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1289.189121},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1297.040187},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1300.96164},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1328.367324},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1344.513386},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1347.214399},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1343.319436},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1344.210914},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1347.959946},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1358.986288},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1362.80407},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1363.198845},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1372.273178},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1377.073169},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1383.971496},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1377.142716},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1371.108385},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1370.287545},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1383.195051},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1400.059145},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1408.92304},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1403.759463},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1397.996986},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1395.893727},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1395.937324},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1406.530902},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1418.153391},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1433.865892},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1440.438839},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1437.178082},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1423.462747},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1422.203392},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1428.266138},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1431.984332},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1440.324336},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1448.944365},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1455.773152},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1453.62219},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1450.930463},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1446.771015},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1451.306593},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1462.755825},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1477.508221},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1480.331804},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1480.419686}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":62,"firstPeriod":"2021-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":62,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1428.266138,"endRent":1480.419686,"change":0.036515287040992606,"cagr":0.036515287040992606},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1347.959946,"endRent":1480.419686,"change":0.09826682194309067,"cagr":0.03173767129683713},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1104.97208,"endRent":1480.419686,"change":0.3397801743551747,"cagr":0.06024616288878626}},"maxDrawdown":-0.012659646842527295,"annualizedVolatility":0.02612993571471462,"consecutiveReturnCount":61}}