ZIP 80011 carries two matching labels in this packet: it is Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $1,590, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey instead places median gross rent at $1,607 for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. These are distinct universes: ZORI is a current asking-rent index, while ACS describes surveyed occupied homes. Their nearby levels do not make them interchangeable or establish a current lease term.
Looking at the path rather than only the index level, exact same-month ZIP ZORI history declined 3.15% over the latest 1-year interval and 0.95% annualized across 3 years, while it rose 2.74% annualized over 5 years. Recent cooling therefore confirms the medium-term slippage but breaks from the longer positive path. The annualized variability of monthly returns is 2.74%, so a current rent snapshot deserves confidence as a dated directional reading rather than as a fixed quote. Separately, the greatest peak-to-trough historical decline was 6.63%. History has 100% coverage. The transparent national discovery ranks are 2,835 for momentum, 1,131 for stability, and 2,526 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs; a lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The income screen and the burden survey create an important tension. At a 30% required-income screen, assigning the $1,590 ZIP ZORI to housing produces $63,600 in required annual income; the ACS ZCTA median household income is $74,022, and the annual asking-rent share of that income is 25.78%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Yet ACS reports that 56.96% of surveyed renter households had gross-rent burden at or above the stated threshold. The broad median-income screen therefore cannot substitute for the surveyed burden result, and neither statistic proves affordability, cost, or burden for a particular unit. ACS sampling uncertainty also qualifies the survey measures.
Bedroom segmentation needs a deliberately modelled treatment. The supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder gives a $2,089 administrative two-bedroom standard; HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,251 for a studio, $1,335 for one bedroom, $1,590 for two bedrooms, $2,081 for three bedrooms, and $2,321 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom value matches ZORI by construction. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Stock context is also from the ACS ZCTA, not Zillow or Redfin. The survey counts 19,286 housing units, a 3.84% vacancy rate, and a 46.15% renter share. Reported structural components include 10,114 single-family units and 3,033 large multifamily units, but those categories do not replace direct rental-availability evidence. Of 741 survey-classified vacant units, 443 were categorized as for rent. Census vacancy categories are not contemporary advertised inventory, and they cannot prove an opening, rent, or burden at any particular unit.
The ZIP reading is lower than each wider asking-rent context, but the comparison is only context. The City of Aurora context has a Zillow rent of $1,759; the Arapahoe County context has a Zillow rent of $1,821; and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro context has a Zillow rent of $1,930. Each named city, county, and metro value covers a broader scope than 80011 and therefore does not act as a ZIP rental comp or alter the ZCTA survey results. The pattern supplies relative scale, not an explanation for it.
Redfin provides an entirely separate direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. Its median sold price was $411,632, down 4.27% year over year; it recorded 96 homes sold with a median 23 days on market. Inventory was 105 homes, 4.32% higher year over year, alongside 3.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.05%, and 19.37% of sales closed above list. Those price, timing, supply, and sale-to-list signals describe direct ZIP resale liquidity in the for-sale market, not rental transactions. The falling sale-price direction is consistent with the ZORI cooling path, but the observed sales and marketing time challenge any claim that falling asking rents alone demonstrate an absence of resale turnover. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 4.64%, solely a cross-source screening ratio and not a property cash-flow measure.
Several limits remain before source-level signals can be applied to an actual property. ZORI blends rental types and is an asking-rent index; ACS is a lagged ZCTA survey of occupied homes; HUD supplies an administrative standard; and Redfin is a rolling resale series. A property-level review would need current advertised terms matched on bedroom count, unit condition, floor area, utilities, concessions, lease duration, and availability, while a sale comparison would need matched property characteristics and transaction timing. Which evidence universe actually answers the property-level question at hand: current asking terms, surveyed renter homes, the administrative benchmark, or resale transactions?
","findings":[{"body":"At June 2026, ZORI is $1,590 after an exact same-month 3.15% one-year and 0.95% three-year annualized decline. The five-year annualized gain remains 2.74%, so the latest direction conflicts with the longer record. Full coverage and a stronger stability rank than momentum rank improve traceability, but all history remains backward-looking rather than predictive.","title":"Cooling has interrupted the longer rent path"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen assigns the current index to $63,600 required annual income, below the $74,022 ACS median household income. Yet 56.96% of surveyed renter households meet the reported burden threshold. This makes the household-level burden survey more informative than a ZIP-wide median-income comparison for describing reported strain; neither result establishes the cost or qualification of an individual rental.","title":"Affordability measures show a meaningful tension"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates formed by applying local HUD ratios to the blended ZORI. They range from $1,251 to $2,321, with the two-bedroom estimate matching $1,590 by construction. HUD’s $2,089 two-bedroom standard is an administrative benchmark. Neither the HUD figure nor the scaled ladder is a set of measured asking rents.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not observed rents"},{"body":"Redfin's resale data show a separate, active for-sale universe: $411,632 median sold price, declining 4.27% year over year, with 96 sales and 23 days on market. Inventory of 105 homes is up 4.32%, while 3.3 months of supply and a 99.05% average sale-to-list ratio add transaction context. The 4.64% annualized rent-to-price screen is only cross-source arithmetic, not property-level economics.","title":"Resale is cooling but still records turnover"}],"risks":["ZORI’s blended asking-rent index may diverge from a unit’s bedroom count, condition, utility treatment, concessions, timing, and advertised availability, so it cannot serve as a property-specific rent quotation.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical area rather than USPS delivery geography, and ACS is a five-year survey with sampling margins, making its renter, vacancy, and burden readings unsuitable as real-time evidence of a specific available rental.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative thresholds; scaling them to ZORI creates a useful modelled ladder but introduces a construction assumption that does not observe actual bedroom-specific listings.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation records for-sale outcomes and inventory, not rental transactions. A rent-to-price division omits property expenses, financing, taxes, condition, and matching of any individual unit to a sold home."],"qa":[{"a":"The two values answer different questions. ZORI is a June 2026 ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS reports a 2024 five-year median gross rent for surveyed occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differing populations, timing, and rent concepts mean the two readings can be close without measuring the same thing.","q":"Why can the $1,590 ZORI and the $1,607 ACS median gross rent differ?"},{"a":"No. The ladder is a modelling device that scales the blended ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD bedroom ratios, which makes the $1,590 two-bedroom estimate equal to the index by construction. It does not observe bedroom-specific listings. A property-level comparison requires actual advertised unit terms, bedroom count, utilities, concessions, condition, and timing.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for 80011 listings?"},{"a":"The screen assigns the monthly ZORI to an annual income threshold using the stated 30% share. Its $63,600 result is arithmetic, and the ZIP-wide median household income comparison is not a household budget or qualification test. The ACS burden statistic separately describes surveyed renter households reporting at least the threshold; it cannot establish the burden of a specific lease.","q":"What does the required-income screen say relative to the burden result?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s $411,632 median sold price and its transaction metrics are direct ZIP for-sale and resale observations over a rolling three-month window, whereas ZORI describes asking rents. The 4.64% division annualizes the ZIP index and divides it by median sold price. It does not match a specific rental to a sold property or include property-specific cash flows.","q":"Does the Redfin resale data establish rental economics?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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