At the June 2026 reading, this ZIP presents a cooling asking-rent signal against a still-positive longer arc. Zillow ZORI, the ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, is $1,504. Its exact same-month 1-year change is -1.7%, and its 3-year annualized change is -1.4%, while the 5-year annualized change is +2.6%. Thus, the recent direction confirms the cooling classification and breaks from the earlier longer growth path; it does not establish where rents will go next. It is a market-level signal, so it cannot identify a particular apartment’s rent. The 80012 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
History supports a measured, not predictive, reading of that contrast. Through the stated endpoint, the series has 100% coverage, 123 observations, and uninterrupted monthly returns, which makes the reported same-month comparisons complete for its window. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.4%, with a maximum drawdown of -8.6%; together they argue against treating one current index value as a precise fixed price for every listing. The variability describes movement around prior readings, not error in any individual ZORI observation. Among national history-eligible ZIP markets, transparent discovery ranks are 2,770 for momentum, 529 for stability, and 2,151 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the relatively better stability rank does not cancel the recent declines.
Dataset differences are material rather than errors. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,753 median gross rent among occupied renter homes; this measure includes selected utilities and carries survey uncertainty. The Zillow index is 14.2% below that ACS median, but they do not ask the same question: ACS summarizes surveyed occupied renter homes, whereas ZORI represents typical observed asking rents across blended rental types. The gap can reflect definition, timing, household mix, and included utilities within these distinct evidence universes; it is not a claim that any listing is underpriced or that either source is wrong. Neither series supplies a unit-level utility schedule, lease structure, or advertised availability.
Bedroom figures should be read as modelled estimates, never as measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,183 for a studio, $1,263 for a one-bedroom, $1,504 for a two-bedroom, $1,968 for a three-bedroom, and $2,195 for a four-bedroom. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,089, placing the ZIP ZORI at roughly 72% of that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, and the modelled ladder inherits both ZORI’s blended rental-type scope and HUD’s relative bedroom scaling. They do not observe the bedroom mix or terms of units listed in a particular month. It should therefore organize a listing comparison, not substitute for observed rents by unit size.
The income and burden evidence gives a separate tension. Applying a 30% rent-share screen to the current ZORI yields $60,160 in annual required income; the matched ZCTA’s median household income is $73,000, and the index-to-income calculation is 24.7%. That screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. In ACS, 6,067 of 9,810 renter households, or 61.8%, report spending at least that share of income on rent. This household-level burden measure cannot prove what any particular unit costs, whether its utilities are included, or whether a particular renter will qualify. Income and burden figures describe households in aggregate, not the details of a rent application.
Stock data indicate a mixed inventory rather than a direct measure of currently marketable apartments. The matched ZCTA has 20,304 housing units and a 3.8% overall vacancy rate. Single-family units outnumber units in large multifamily structures, while renter-occupied homes slightly outnumber owner-occupied homes. Some vacancies are recorded as for rent, but aggregate vacancy neither confirms a specific address is available nor reveals the asking rent, concessions, condition, lease restrictions, or move-in timing of a particular unit. It also cannot distinguish ordinary turnover from prolonged unoccupied status. Treat this as a survey-based supply-and-occupancy backdrop, not a property-level availability signal.
Wider benchmarks remain context only: Aurora city context rent is $1,759, Arapahoe County context rent is $1,821, and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro context rent is $1,930; each applies to a broader geographic scope than this ZIP. Their higher values do not override the ZIP series or describe a given building. Before using this report for a real listing, verify the street address and ZIP/ZCTA geography, advertised base rent, bedroom count, included utilities, recurring and one-time fees, lease term, concessions, availability date, and unit condition. The comparison is strongest when the listing’s payment basis matches the index definition as closely as available evidence permits. Does the specific listing’s total monthly obligation and address actually support comparison with this ZIP-level asking-rent index?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI in 80012 is $1,504 at June 2026. Exact same-month changes are negative over one and three years but positive over five years. Full historical coverage supports the calculations, while modest annualized variability and a material drawdown mean the current value is a broad ZIP index, not a precise quote for every rental. This interpretation is backward-looking only.","title":"Cooling now, growth over the long record"},{"body":"ZORI tracks observed asking-rent conditions across blended rental types. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The difference between their dollar values is evidence of differing definitions and coverage, not a conversion error, quoted rent, or valuation of a particular dwelling.","title":"Three rent constructs, different jobs"},{"body":"The 30% income screen translates the current monthly index into an annual arithmetic threshold; it does not assess household eligibility. ACS reports a substantial share of renter households at or above the burden threshold, but that is an aggregate survey result. It cannot identify a unit’s utility treatment, fees, lease conditions, payment history, or a specific household’s financial situation.","title":"Affordability arithmetic meets burden reports"},{"body":"ZIP stock and vacancy figures describe the matched ZCTA’s aggregate housing backdrop, while Aurora, Arapahoe County, and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood metro are wider context. A listing comparison still needs address verification, actual bedroom count, base rent, utility inclusions, fees, concessions, lease term, date available, and condition. Aggregate vacancy does not demonstrate that a selected unit is open or affordable.","title":"Context and stock do not replace listing review"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended ZIP-level asking-rent index rather than a unit-specific quote. Differences in condition, lease timing, bedrooms, utilities, fees, and concessions can make a listing’s total payment diverge materially from the index.","The ACS result covers the matched ZCTA, uses a five-year survey frame, and has sampling uncertainty. Its statistical boundary is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so it cannot precisely classify every address.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards. The ZIP bedroom figures are modelled from ZORI and HUD relative scaling, so they should not be read as observed asking rents for actual bedrooms.","Historical returns, volatility, drawdown, and discovery ranks summarize past ZORI observations. They cannot forecast rent changes, certify a current listing, or establish an investment outcome, and history’s broad scope does not eliminate source-definition limits."],"qa":[{"a":"They are different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across blended rental types, whereas ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. They also differ in timing and population. The reported gap therefore compares measures with distinct definitions, not two quotes for the same apartment.","q":"Why is the current Zillow figure lower than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the current ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The figures help make a structured comparison but cannot establish what studios or larger units are currently being advertised for.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed market rents?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index under a thirty-percent rent-share assumption. It is arithmetic, not financial advice, tenant screening, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual qualification and total payment depend on the listing’s price, utilities, fees, lease terms, and the criteria used by the relevant property.","q":"Does the 30% required-income calculation decide whether someone qualifies?"},{"a":"Verify the street address and whether its geography aligns with the ZIP/ZCTA scope, then obtain the advertised base rent, bedroom count, included utilities, recurring and one-time fees, concessions, lease length, availability date, and condition. These property facts determine whether comparison to a blended ZIP index is meaningful.","q":"What should be verified before comparing a property with this report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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