The distinctive decision question for 80013, used here as a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA label, is not simply whether a posted rent looks high or low against a broad benchmark. It is how the June 2026 ZIP signal, bedroom-scaled estimates, household measures, and stock composition can inform a property-level comparison without being mistaken for a quote. Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is $2,027 per month, following a 0.26% year-over-year decline. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Its essentially unchanged reading establishes the current index level and recent direction, but it does not establish availability, concessions, lease terms, utility treatment, or the rent for any specific dwelling. The central comparison is therefore between a property’s disclosed rent and bedroom count and this ZIP reference, while preserving the distinction between an index and a listing.
Zillow, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. The ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $2,201, with a $79 90% margin of error, for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI sits 8.0% below that survey median; this is a cross-universe comparison, not a measure of change or a quality adjustment. A ZCTA is a statistical area used for Census tabulation and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD’s FY2026 $2,089 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and ZORI is 3.0% below it. Neither ACS gross rent nor HUD converts the ZIP index into a listing price.
The ZIP bedroom view is deliberately modelled, not measured: it scales the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder. The resulting monthly estimates are $1,594 for a studio, $1,702 for one bedroom, $2,027 for two bedrooms, $2,653 for three bedrooms, and $2,959 for four bedrooms. Their pattern tracks the HUD schedule, which runs from $1,643 for a studio to $3,049 for four bedrooms. The equality between the ZIP index and the modelled two-bedroom estimate is a construction feature of the scaling method, not validation that observed two-bedroom asking rents equal the index. The bedroom estimates provide a consistent size-adjusted reference only; they do not measure achieved rents, condition, availability, or a property’s advertised terms.
ACS ZCTA housing counts frame vacancy as composition rather than as a current listing inventory. The 4.2% vacancy rate encompasses 1,128 units. The classifications include 521 vacant units for rent, 93 for sale, and 63 seasonal, so the total cannot be read as a count of immediately obtainable rentals. The structure mix also affects how a blended asking-rent index should be read: 22,115 units are single-family, while 1,706 are large-multifamily units. These survey classifications describe the area’s housing stock, not the characteristics of a particular property. A for-rent vacancy classification neither identifies a vacancy at a particular building nor shows that any listed home is priced at ZORI, available on a particular date, or offered under comparable lease terms.
Income and burden readings likewise describe households, not eligibility. The ZCTA’s median household income is $101,191, while renter households make up 25.1% of occupied homes. Annualizing the monthly ZORI produces a 24.0% asking-rent-to-median-household-income ratio. Separately, the arithmetic income amount associated with spending 30% of income on that monthly index is $81,080. This 30% screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and it uses an area-wide household median rather than a renter-specific income distribution. In ACS burden observations, 3,625 of 6,453 renter households, or 56.2%, reported gross-rent burdens of 30% or more. That observed share cannot establish the burden facing a specific household or unit.
Broader measures place ZIP signals in context but are not substitutes for ZIP or ZCTA measures. Aurora city scope has a $1,759 rent context, Arapahoe County scope has $1,821, and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro scope has $1,930; all three are below the ZIP ZORI. For tenure context, Aurora city scope renter share is 37.6%, while the matched ZCTA is 25.1%. The Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro scope reports a 21.9% rent-to-income measure and 8.3% apartment vacancy. These values are wider-area context, with their own coverage and methodology; the comparison describes differences in reported metrics and does not show why the ZIP differs.
Key limits are timing, geography, and measure design. The current Zillow figure is a ZIP-level index at its stated period, ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey with sampling uncertainty, and HUD is a standard; none reports a verified, live property quote. Before applying these reference points to a particular rental, check the advertised monthly rent, exact bedroom count, property type, whether selected utilities are included or separately billed, lease length, concession treatment, availability date, and any fees or deposits. Also confirm whether the listing’s location is within the ZIP market identifier, because the Census ZCTA match is statistical rather than a USPS delivery boundary. Compare the property’s own disclosed terms against the appropriate reference universe, while keeping the modelled ladder and arithmetic income screen separate from a landlord’s actual policies.
","findings":[{"body":"At $2,027, the June ZIP ZORI offers a current, blended asking-rent reference after a slight year-over-year decline. It is useful for placing a disclosed asking rent in a ZIP-level frame, but it cannot verify an advertised unit’s availability, bedroom configuration, utilities, concessions, or lease terms. Those features remain property-specific.","title":"ZIP asking-rent signal is flat, not a quote"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent and HUD FMR/SAFMR should not be treated as competing quote series. ACS describes occupied renter homes in the statistical ZCTA through a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. HUD supplies administrative bedroom standards. Their comparison with ZORI is diagnostic only because coverage, timing, rent concept, and geographic construction differ.","title":"Rent benchmarks answer separate questions"},{"body":"Bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They offer a transparent size sequence from studio through four bedrooms, but they are never measured bedroom rents. A listed unit can differ because the model does not observe its terms, condition, availability, or the utility treatment in its advertised price.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled"},{"body":"Household and stock data provide important guardrails. The burden statistic is an observed ACS household result, while the required-income figure is a 30% arithmetic screen, not an applicant rule. Similarly, vacancy categories and structure counts describe area composition. They cannot demonstrate that a particular rental is vacant, affordable to a particular household, or offered at the index level.","title":"Household and stock measures are guardrails"}],"risks":["The Zillow figure blends observed asking rents across rental types. Treating it as a promised quote for one address could misstate the actual bedroom count, utility inclusion, concession treatment, or monthly payment.","ACS median gross rent comes from occupied renter homes in a matched statistical ZCTA and includes selected utilities, so it should not be substituted for a current advertised rent or a USPS delivery ZIP price.","Vacancy and for-rent classifications are area-level survey categories. They do not confirm that a specific unit is currently open, lease-ready, comparably priced, or available under any particular screening terms.","The bedroom ladder and the 30% required-income calculation are model outputs and arithmetic reference points. Neither measures a unit’s rent nor defines a landlord’s qualification policy or any applicant’s outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"It measures a typical observed asking-rent index at ZIP scope, blended across rental types. It is useful as a reference for comparing a disclosed property asking rent, but it does not report a live listing, achieved rent, lease terms, utilities, concessions, or vacancy.","q":"What does the current ZIP ZORI measure?"},{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched statistical ZCTA and includes selected utilities. HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Differences among them reflect distinct rent concepts, periods, and geography, not a direct disagreement about one dwelling’s asking price.","q":"Why should ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR remain separate?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They make the size pattern explicit, but they do not observe listings or leases. A particular unit’s advertised price, condition, utilities, and availability can differ from the modelled estimate.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured market rents?"},{"a":"Check the property’s disclosed monthly rent, bedroom count, property type, included and separately billed utilities, lease length, concessions, availability date, fees, and deposits. Then compare those disclosed terms with the correct reference universe. Do not use area vacancy, burden, or the arithmetic required-income screen as proof of a particular outcome.","q":"What should be checked for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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