At first glance, ZIP 80014 shows a split across two housing markets rather than a single directional signal. Zillow's current ZIP asking-rent index is $1,702 per month, up 0.96% from the same month a year earlier, while Redfin's direct ZIP resale observation puts the median sold price at $349,921, down 6.69% year over year. That contrast challenges any assumption that a mild asking-rent gain is being mirrored in for-sale pricing; neither series establishes a causal link. The 80014 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, an important boundary limit before address-level use.
Zillow's figure is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is neither a lease comp nor the rent on every listing. The matched ACS ZCTA five-year survey instead reports a $1,842 median gross rent, with a $58 margin of error, for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Current ZIP ZORI is therefore 92.4% of that ACS median, a source-definition gap rather than proof that a newly advertised home is cheaper. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,089: it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Keeping these universes separate prevents the ACS utility-inclusive occupied-home measure or HUD standard from being substituted for Zillow asking rent.
Backward history lends nuance to the current reading. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualize to 0.96% over one year, -0.15% over three years, and 2.24% over five years. The newest positive reading confirms the broader five-year increase but breaks from the weak three-year path, producing a mixed, backward-looking record rather than a forecast. Monthly index moves translate to 2.58% annualized variability; the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown reached 7.91%, so a current snapshot carries more credibility as a dated benchmark than as a fixed level. Coverage was 99.13% in the underlying series. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,205 for momentum, 841 for stability, and 1,790 for balanced history; lower ranks are higher, and these organize past patterns rather than rate an investment.
Resale liquidity provides a separate, direct reading. The Redfin record is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale/resale observation, not rental transactions. It records 209 homes sold and a median 32 days on market; that marketing time describes sale exposure and does not indicate rental lease-up time. Inventory stood at 303 homes, alongside 4.4 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 98.43%, and 15.78% of sales closed above list, signals that belong solely to this resale universe. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that median sold price is a 5.84% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Falling resale prices alongside the small ZORI rise reinforces the earlier tension and limits any unified market reading.
Bedroom framing is modelled rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,339 for a studio, $1,429 for one bedroom, $1,702 for two bedrooms, $2,228 for three bedrooms, and $2,484 for four bedrooms. They preserve the local HUD bedroom relationships while anchoring the two-bedroom result to ZIP ZORI. They are never measured bedroom rents, do not identify the price of a particular floorplan, and cannot convert a HUD FMR/SAFMR administrative standard into an asking-rent comp. Listing availability, utility treatment, furnishing, concessions, lease length, and unit condition are outside this scaled ladder.
An arithmetic 30% required-income screen applied to the $1,702 index produces $68,080 annually; against the ACS median household income of $73,210, the index equals 27.9% of that income. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. In the separate ACS burden tabulation, 4,408 renter households, or 59.9%, reported spending 30% or more of income on gross rent; it does not prove the burden or affordability of a particular unit. For broader context only, the Aurora city-scope rental figure is $1,758.996, the Arapahoe County-scope figure is $1,821, and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro-scope figure is $1,930. Each exceeds the ZIP index, but none is a ZIP-level substitute.
The ACS ZCTA stock picture gives scale but not a live availability count: of 19,857 housing units, 1,097 were vacant, a 5.52% vacancy rate, and 341 were classified vacant for rent. Renter households made up 39.2% of occupied units. The structure mix included 9,562 single-family units and 5,049 units in large multifamily structures, so the aggregate ZIP index spans material variety in housing form. A vacant-for-rent count does not establish the asking price, condition, timing, incentive, or suitability of an individual listing, nor does vacancy prove anything about a particular unit. The survey stock figures should therefore contextualize, rather than overwrite, the direct rent and resale observations.
The usable conclusion is evidentiary, not predictive: current ZIP asking rent is modestly higher than a year ago, its longer history is mixed, and the direct resale median price declined over its own rolling window. A property-level review needs the exact address and geography, observed bedroom count, current advertised rent, dates, lease term, utility inclusions, concessions, furnishing, and condition; it also needs separately relevant rental listings and sales records rather than a blended index alone. Confirm whether the address is represented by the Zillow ZIP identifier and matched Census ZCTA before applying survey context. Reconcile the source periods, survey margins of error, and different definitions instead of treating them as interchangeable. Which documented address-level rent, utilities, bedroom configuration, and terms remain after those source-specific checks?
","findings":[{"body":"Current Zillow ZORI is $1,702, up 0.96% year over year, while direct Redfin resale reports a $349,921 median sold price, down 6.69%. The figures measure different markets. This divergence is the central screen: the rent index edged up whereas recorded home sales softened, without demonstrating that either movement causes the other.","title":"Rent-resale divergence"},{"body":"History is mixed rather than smoothly positive. Exact same-month annualized changes were 0.96% over one year, -0.15% over three years, and 2.24% over five years. Broad coverage supports the calculation, but the past 7.91% maximum drawdown means the current reading is best treated as a date-specific benchmark, not a fixed market level.","title":"Mixed historical path"},{"body":"The ACS matched ZCTA median gross rent of $1,842 is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; Zillow ZORI is $1,702 typical observed asking rent across rental types. FY2026 HUD's two-bedroom $2,089 FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative standard. Neither ACS nor HUD is a substitute for ZIP asking rent or measured bedroom listings.","title":"Rent figures serve different purposes"},{"body":"The HUD-scaled bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured rents. Redfin's sale price, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list measures are direct resale evidence, not rental transactions. A specific property requires current listing rent, actual bedroom configuration, included utilities, lease terms, concessions, condition, and an address-level geographic match before these aggregate measures can be applied.","title":"Address-level evidence remains necessary"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, so it cannot establish the current rent, concessions, utility treatment, or availability of any specific address, bedroom count, or lease.","ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey with sampling error and utility-inclusive gross-rent definitions; it cannot prove present affordability, vacancy, rent burden, or household circumstances for a specific rental.","HUD FMR/SAFMR and the HUD-scaled bedroom ladder are administrative and modelled tools, respectively. They do not observe listings, unit condition, lease terms, concessions, or actual bedroom rents.","Redfin's rolling three-month ZIP series concerns completed for-sale transactions. Its selling price, market-time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals cannot be treated as rental comps, lease-up evidence, or a property's operating economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They cover distinct source universes. Zillow measures a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS reports a five-year, utility-inclusive median gross rent for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA. HUD supplies a bedroom-specific administrative FMR/SAFMR standard. Their different populations and definitions make direct substitution inappropriate.","q":"Why do the Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures differ?"},{"a":"Exact same-month measurements show a small positive recent result, a slightly negative three-year result, and a positive five-year result. The 2.58% variability and 7.91% historical drawdown indicate that the level has moved over time. High coverage strengthens the record, but it does not turn backward-looking data into a forecast.","q":"What does the history say about the current rent reading?"},{"a":"Redfin gives a direct rolling-three-month view of ZIP resale activity, including median sold price, sales count, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It helps identify that resale evidence differs from the rent index. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen; it is not a cap rate or property return.","q":"What does the Redfin evidence contribute?"},{"a":"Match the exact address to the geographic identifiers, then document the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, furnishing, availability date, lease duration, and condition. Compare rental evidence with rental evidence and sale records with sale records. The ACS, HUD, history, and Redfin measures remain context, each with a different period and definition.","q":"What must be checked for a specific address?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1242.088922},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1248.083329},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1239.651566},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1221.898479},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1234.652759},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1255.633417},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1259.838916},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1261.6982},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1266.028393},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1287.873044},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1286.883259},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1291.387944},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1291.172677},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1299.934099},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1309.950211},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1312.295864},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1306.437814},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1319.115167},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1324.798839},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1346.245506},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1346.948751},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1352.236121},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1345.853846},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1345.241854},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1337.283805},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1343.713716},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1353.410724},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1357.91386},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1360.763201},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1358.526572},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1363.95996},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1358.067619},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1360.355994},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1370.22532},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1382.889185},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1396.456442},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1411.159123},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1419.833725},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1406.21207},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1390.628437},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1388.02327},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1387.32269},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1392.565126},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1389.837055},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1395.429136},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1397.85366},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1405.864074},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1404.594564},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1416.064756},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1429.969477},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1450.814186},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1473.564791},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1502.106628},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1524.074151},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1542.9838},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1571.409763},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1595.960605},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1612.650198},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1620.298774},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1647.357231},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1667.815344},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1669.926604},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1664.157334},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1673.46606},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1683.772052},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1694.363712},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1698.834222},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1703.907066},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1698.224537},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1699.265505},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1694.354643},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1688.586822},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1693.555594},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1718.642949},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1732.727506},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1715.501358},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1708.256712},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1709.736768},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1736.688851},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1745.283471},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1759.971252},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1779.032868},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1793.196447},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1797.840506},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1784.161685},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1778.029233},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1780.607273},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1791.072783},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1800.151763},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1795.582717},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1767.104737},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1760.564838},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1752.691037},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1755.547415},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1751.355272},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1743.647717},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1742.368241},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1724.375979},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1723.908018},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1716.863893},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1699.382029},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1686.05638},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1687.566244},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1682.174591},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1677.695534},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1663.15246},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1657.78716},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1659.296214},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1663.059821},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1673.150064},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1670.137595},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1674.836657},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1687.181792},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1702.25149}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":114,"firstPeriod":"2016-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":115,"coverageRatio":0.991304347826087,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1686.05638,"endRent":1702.25149,"change":0.009605319366603915,"cagr":0.009605319366603915},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1709.736768,"endRent":1702.25149,"change":-0.00437802949559063,"cagr":-0.001461478042733777},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1524.074151,"endRent":1702.25149,"change":0.11690857618908601,"cagr":0.022359236885111988}},"maxDrawdown":-0.07908477825377658,"annualizedVolatility":0.02576087993553721,"consecutiveReturnCount":112}}