At June 2026, this Zillow ZIP market has a Zillow Observed Rent Index, or ZORI, of $2,699 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a count of signed leases or a single-property quote. The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation puts the median sold price at $646,854, a 1.09% year-over-year change. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that median sold price is 5.01%, solely a cross-source screening ratio. It pairs a rent index with resale prices and does not describe operating costs, a particular home, or a property-level outcome.
The backward-looking ZORI history supplies a notably stronger movement signal than the contemporaneous sale-price change. Exact same-month change was 5.28% over one year, compared with annualized 3.17% over three years and 4.70% over five years. The latest pace therefore confirms the longer upward path and is faster than both multi-year measures; it does not forecast a continuation. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.13%, and the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 1.42%, with 100% coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks were 575 for momentum, 224 for stability, and 93 for the balanced score among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower is higher. The low recorded variability lends more historical continuity to a current index snapshot than a jagged series would, but cannot turn one asking-rent reading into a guarantee.
The matched Census ZCTA record is deliberately a different evidence universe. The five-digit 80109 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, occupied renter homes had a median gross rent of $2,304. That measure includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI represents typical observed asking rent, and the current index is 17.14% higher. The gap is a scope and timing comparison, not evidence that any available rental commands the index or that a surveyed household would face a new asking rent.
The bedroom view is modelled rather than measured. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the supplied local HUD ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $2,123 for a studio, $2,266 for one bedroom, $2,699 for two bedrooms, $3,532 for three bedrooms, and $3,939 for four bedrooms. The fiscal-year 2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $2,089. These figures provide proportional brackets around the ZIP index only. They are not observed bedroom rents, lease offers, or proof that every property of a given bedroom count fits the modelled level.
Affordability screen and burden data also need separate readings. The matched ZCTA ACS median household income is $155,025. Applying a 30% share to the current monthly ZORI produces a required annual income of $107,960; this is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The index-to-income screen is 20.89%. Separately, ACS reports 1,091 renter households, or 60.41% of the renter population, with gross-rent burden at or above that threshold. The burden estimate summarizes surveyed occupied renter households, while the threshold uses the current asking-rent index. Neither result can establish the finances of a particular renter, the terms of a prospective lease, or affordability of a specific unit.
Housing stock describes the ZCTA aggregate, not an availability feed. ACS records 9,873 housing units and a 1.47% vacancy rate. Of the recorded stock, 8,695 units are single-family and 459 are large multifamily. That aggregate combination says neither that a particular unit is vacant nor that its terms match ZORI. For broader rental context only, the ZIP index is 8.24% above the Castle Rock city context rent measure, 17.04% above the Douglas County county context rent measure, and 39.84% above the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro context rent measure. City, county, and metro figures are wider-scope contextual comparisons, not ZIP substitutes.
Resale liquidity must stay inside Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation. Redfin recorded 169 homes sold, a median 22 days on market, 146 homes of inventory, and 2.6 months of supply. Its sale-to-list signals were a 99.26% average sale-to-list ratio and a 19.53% share sold above list. These are resale transaction and listing signals, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. They show observable resale activity alongside the modest price change stated above, while the rent index’s stronger latest annual movement creates a tension with any simple rent-versus-price reading. The screening ratio cannot resolve that tension because it omits property-specific expenses, financing, condition, and transaction differences.
Important limits remain even when each source is used as intended. ZORI blends rental types into an asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey with sampling uncertainty; the HUD ladder is an administrative standard; and Redfin is a rolling resale observation. Their differing populations, construction methods, and reference periods prevent a direct unit-for-unit comparison. Concrete property-level checks can document the address’s market match, bedroom count, current advertised terms, included utilities, lease concessions, size, condition, and availability before comparing a listing with a modelled bracket. A purchase review can separately verify the actual sale, list chronology, and relevant property facts rather than extend ZIP resale medians to one home. Which documented current lease and direct-sale facts remain after these evidence universes are kept separate?
","findings":[{"body":"Exact same-month Zillow history shows the most recent asking-rent increase running faster than either multi-year annualized comparison. Complete historical coverage, low annualized monthly-return variability, and a shallow recorded drawdown describe an index path with continuity in the observed period. The transparent national ranks place the balanced discovery measure ahead of the separate momentum and stability ranks, but the rankings and history remain backward-looking measurements.","title":"Recent rent movement exceeds the longer-run pace"},{"body":"ZORI’s asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent, and the HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder should not be substituted for one another. ZORI blends rental types; ACS describes occupied renter homes and selected utilities in a matched statistical area; HUD sets a bedroom-specific administrative benchmark. The ZIP bedroom figures are modelled by applying that HUD ladder to ZORI, so they convey a proportional estimate rather than measured rents.","title":"Rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The income screen is a calculation using the current ZIP asking-rent index and the stated household-income measure, whereas the rent-burden result comes from the ACS renter population. Both provide useful aggregate framing, but neither confirms a household’s budget or a unit’s lease terms. Aggregate vacancy and structure counts similarly define the ZCTA stock mix without identifying which homes are actually available to rent.","title":"Aggregate affordability does not identify a unit"},{"body":"Redfin provides a direct ZIP resale observation with completed-sale prices, transaction pace, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list evidence. Its slower price movement than the latest rent-index movement is the report’s central cross-universe tension. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation only screens two source series against each other; it omits expenses, property traits, and the distinction between asking rents and sale transactions.","title":"Resale activity and rent movement are not fully aligned"}],"risks":["The current rent figure is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, so variation by bedroom, property condition, lease duration, concessions, and included utilities may be material for any individual listing.","ACS estimates represent a five-year matched ZCTA survey and include sampling uncertainty; the ZCTA boundary is statistical rather than identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, limiting unit-level inferences.","The bedroom estimates inherit the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder’s proportional structure. Because HUD is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, the estimates can differ from actual advertised bedroom rents.","Redfin resale data concern for-sale activity, not rental transactions. The rent-to-price screen excludes operating expenses, financing, property condition, and timing differences, so it cannot characterize a particular asset."],"qa":[{"a":"They are not the same population or measure. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical rather than USPS delivery geography, so its median is not a contemporaneous new-listing rent comparison.","q":"Why is the current Zillow asking-rent reading above ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by scaling ZORI with the supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The resulting figures provide a consistent proportional framework across sizes, but they do not observe lease offers, executed rents, or individual properties.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for available homes?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure simply applies the current index to a thirty-percent-of-income screen. The burden share separately summarizes ACS survey results for occupied renter households. The two measures use different evidence universes and cannot determine an applicant’s finances, an owner’s terms, or whether an individual vacancy is affordable.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether a household can qualify?"},{"a":"Redfin metrics here are direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observations, covering resale pricing, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list outcomes rather than rentals. The annualized ZORI divided by the median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a property-level economics measure and does not incorporate expenses, financing, condition, or transaction-specific facts.","q":"How should the resale information and rent-to-price screen be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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