Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents the clearest tension in 80202. The median sold price was $562,373, down 6.27% year over year; 64 homes sold, with a median 39 days on market. Inventory stood at 243 homes and months of supply reached 11.6, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 98% and just 3.23% of sales closed above list. Those are for-sale signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 4.38% cross-source screening ratio only; it does not measure operating costs, property income, or expected return. The resale price decline and elevated supply align with cooling rent evidence, although neither series establishes why the other moved.
At the stated Zillow history endpoint, the ZIP’s typical observed asking-rent index was $2,051. The exact same-month one-year change was -1.85%, the three-year annualized change was -2.33%, and the five-year annualized change was +0.64%. Thus, the latest annual decline confirms the intermediate cooling path but breaks from the modest positive longer-run path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.60%, which supports some confidence that the current index is not based on a sparse series but still cautions against treating one rent snapshot as a fixed unit quote. Separately, the maximum drawdown was -8.47%, showing that the historical path experienced a materially deeper retreat than the latest one-year change. Coverage was 100% across 122 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,806 for momentum, 887 for stability, and 2,396 for the balanced measure; lower ranks place higher, but these backward-looking scores are not forecasts or recommendations.
For June 2026, Zillow ZORI describes a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a median lease signed by a particular household. For wider context only, Denver city’s asking-rent index was $1,877, Denver County’s context index was $1,889, and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro context index was $1,930. The ZIP reading therefore exceeded each wider-geography context value, but those city, county, and metro figures do not replace the direct ZIP observation. The comparison is useful for scale, not proof that every building, bedroom count, concession package, or lease term in the ZIP is priced above its broader setting.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $2,309 with a $82 margin of error. That survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, making it a different universe from Zillow’s current asking-rent index; Zillow’s index was 88.83% of the ACS median gross rent and should not be read as a same-unit comparison. A 30% arithmetic screen converts the current ZIP index to required annual income of $82,040. Against reported median household income of $114,151, annualized asking rent equaled 21.56% of that income measure. This is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence about any household’s ability to pay. In the ACS renter sample, 3,836 of 9,489 renter households, or 40.43%, had gross-rent burdens of at least 30%; that aggregate burden result does not establish burden for a specific available unit.
Bedroom figures should be treated as modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Scaling the $2,051 ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,613 for a studio, $1,722 for one bedroom, $2,051 for two bedrooms, $2,684 for three bedrooms, and $2,994 for four bedrooms. The equality between the modelled two-bedroom figure and the overall ZIP index is a scaling result, not evidence that observed two-bedroom asking rent equals the index. HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and the local ladder is used here only to distribute the ZIP-wide ZORI across bedroom sizes. Actual unit condition, included utilities, concessions, and lease terms can diverge from every modelled estimate.
The ACS housing-stock picture indicates a renter-oriented, multifamily-heavy matched ZCTA. Of 14,719 housing units, the reported vacancy rate was 16.58%, while renters represented 77.28% of occupied homes. Large multifamily structures contained 13,676 units, compared with 412 single-family units. These are survey-based stock and occupancy measures, not an inventory feed for currently marketable rentals. The vacancy figure includes multiple vacant-use categories and cannot show whether a particular apartment is available, what rent it commands, or whether it is offered with concessions. Still, the combination of a large multifamily stock, a comparatively high renter share, and the observed rent cooling gives important context for why a single current asking-rent index deserves careful unit-level validation.
The five-digit 80202 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA reference. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so geographic matching is useful but imperfect. The principal source limits also run beyond geography: Zillow is an asking-rent index, ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied homes, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin reports direct ZIP resale activity. Their collection windows, populations, and definitions differ. Before applying the record to a property, concrete checks should include the actual advertised rent and effective rent after concessions, bedroom count, lease duration, utility treatment, recurring fees, current availability, building-specific listing history, and whether the quoted unit matches the type represented by the modelled bedroom estimate.
The record is most coherent as a cooling screen with cross-source friction rather than a single affordability or pricing verdict. Current and intermediate Zillow rent history are declining, and the direct ZIP resale observation also shows softer pricing and ample for-sale supply. Yet the ACS gross-rent and burden measures describe occupied households under a different survey framework, while the income screen is only arithmetic. The resale ratio is similarly a screening comparison, not property economics. Backward-looking rent variability and drawdown mean that the current index is informative but not determinative for any unit. The key unresolved question is whether a specific property’s current effective quote, operating terms, and true availability actually resemble the ZIP-level signals summarized here.
","findings":[{"body":"The one-year and three-year Zillow rent-history measures were negative, while the five-year measure remained modestly positive. Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data also showed a year-over-year sold-price decline, long supply, and restrained sale-to-list outcomes. This alignment supports a cooling description, but it does not establish causation between rental and resale conditions.","title":"Cooling appears in both rent history and resale evidence"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a typical asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent instead reflects occupied renter homes over a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. The gap between those figures may reflect timing, population, utility treatment, and measurement design, so it should not be interpreted as a direct unit-level discount.","title":"The current rent figure is not an occupied-household rent measure"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom estimates use the local HUD bedroom ladder to scale the ZIP-wide Zillow index. They are modelled monthly estimates rather than measured asking rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not a rent-comp dataset, so actual advertised units may differ because of lease terms, utilities, building characteristics, and concessions.","title":"Bedroom rents are modelled through HUD, not observed"},{"body":"ACS shows a renter-heavy occupancy base, substantial multifamily stock, and a notable overall vacancy rate in the matched ZCTA. Those figures provide market structure context, but they do not identify live availability, actual unit condition, or effective rent. Vacancy and rent-burden statistics should not be used as proof about a particular property.","title":"High renter concentration does not identify available apartments"}],"risks":["A ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index blends rental types and does not capture a specific unit’s condition, furnishing, concessions, lease length, fees, utility package, or momentary availability.","ACS gross rent and burden figures are multi-year survey estimates for occupied renter homes, include selected utilities, and carry sampling uncertainty that differs from current advertised-rent conditions.","The bedroom ladder is a HUD-scaled modelling exercise rather than direct bedroom-rent observation, so it can misstate actual differences among studio, one-bedroom, and larger available units.","Redfin resale data are direct ZIP for-sale observations, while the rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen; neither establishes property-level income, expenses, financing outcomes, or returns."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, utility treatment, sampled households, and rental composition can all create a difference without identifying a pricing error.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI lower than ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply annualizes the ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index and divides it by 30%. It is an arithmetic screen, not advice, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual qualification can depend on a unit’s effective rent, household income, fees, guarantors, credit standards, and lease terms.","q":"Does the 30% required-income calculation show whether a renter qualifies?"},{"a":"The complete history coverage and relatively contained annualized monthly variability provide useful support for the current ZIP index. However, the maximum drawdown and negative recent same-month changes show that rents have moved meaningfully over time. The snapshot should therefore be treated as a current market indicator, not a fixed quote or forward prediction.","q":"How much weight should be placed on the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP Zillow ZORI by Redfin’s median sold price in the direct ZIP resale observation. That makes it a cross-source screening ratio linking asking-rent and resale datasets. It does not include operating expenses, taxes, insurance, financing, vacancy experience, concessions, or property-specific rent, so it is not a return measure.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 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