The central tension in 80203 is a cooling asking-rent reading alongside resale evidence that is not uniformly weak. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP ZORI stood at $1,538 per month, down 2.72% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease quote for a particular apartment. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That geographic match makes the datasets useful to place side by side, but it does not merge their populations, collection methods, or interpretation. The immediate rent signal therefore deserves comparison with its longer pattern and with a separate for-sale record.
Backward-looking ZORI history points to a recent break from the longer path rather than a simple, uninterrupted fall. Exact same-month change was -2.72% over 1 year and -1.97% annualized over 3 years, while the 5-year annualized change remained +1.21%. Thus, the latest and medium-term direction are negative, breaking from the still-positive longer horizon. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.41% indicates limited month-to-month dispersion relative to the multi-year move, which supports moderate confidence that the current snapshot is not merely a sharp one-month outlier. Still, the historical peak-to-trough maximum drawdown reached -6.76%; the index has experienced a meaningful pullback. Coverage is 100%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,854 for momentum, 544 for stability, and 2,252 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These measurements describe the past and do not forecast rent or support an investment conclusion.
Source scope changes the meaning of the rent comparisons. The matched Census ZCTA’s 2024 ACS five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,641 for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and is not a current asking-rent measure. The current ZIP ZORI is therefore below that survey median, but the gap does not show that any available unit is cheaper after utilities. The FY 2026 local HUD two-bedroom fair-market-rent standard is $2,089. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so its higher level is a program benchmark, not a ZIP leasing comp. Each source answers a different question: current blended asking-rent conditions, surveyed gross housing cost among occupied renters, or an administrative standard. Treating any of them as interchangeable would overstate precision.
The bedroom view is deliberately a model rather than a set of observed bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,210 for a studio, $1,291 for a one-bedroom, $1,538 for a two-bedroom, $2,013 for a three-bedroom, and $2,245 for a four-bedroom. These figures are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The two-bedroom result aligns with the ZIP-wide index because it is the scaling anchor; it does not establish a measured two-bedroom asking-rent median. Unit mix, included utilities, condition, availability, and lease terms can make an individual listing materially different from the ladder. The model is useful for a consistent ZIP-level screen only when that limitation remains explicit.
The income and burden measures create a different tension. The ZCTA’s median household income is $77,500, while the arithmetic 30% screen on the current ZIP ZORI requires $61,520 in annual household income. On that aggregate comparison, the typical asking-rent index equals 23.8% of median household income and the median income sits above the screen boundary. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant-qualification rule; household composition, actual income, utilities, debts, and a landlord’s criteria are outside the calculation. At the same time, 43.4% of surveyed occupied renter households report rent burden at or above that threshold. That burden statistic concerns occupied renters and gross rent, while the screen uses asking rent and a ZIP-wide income median, so the figures are complementary but cannot determine affordability for a particular household or unit.
Supply composition provides context for the burden and rent readings without identifying any particular vacancy. The ACS ZCTA vacancy rate is 7.1%, and renters occupy 78.2% of occupied homes. Of the vacant homes, 678 are reported as available for rent. The stock leans heavily to 12,283 units in larger multifamily structures compared with a much smaller single-family component, which helps explain why a ZIP-wide blended rental index has mixed property types. Survey vacancy is not a same-day listing inventory, proof that a named unit is vacant, or evidence of a concession. The renter share also measures occupied homes rather than a current pool of rental opportunities. These housing-stock measures should therefore support market context, not substitute for unit-level availability and pricing checks.
Broader comparisons show that 80203’s current index is below its wider reference points, but those places remain context rather than substitutes for a ZIP observation: Denver city context rent is $1,877, Denver County context rent is $1,889, and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro context rent is $1,930. The city, county, and metro series cover wider housing markets and have their own compositions, so they cannot identify a local bedroom premium or a property’s attainable rent. The ZIP’s notably renter-heavy occupancy pattern also differs from the broader city and county context, adding another reason not to transfer their averages mechanically. The comparison supports the finding that this ZIP is priced lower on these aggregate context measures, but does not explain why, predict convergence, or contradict the ACS gross-rent survey.
Direct ZIP resale evidence supplies a counterweight, but it belongs entirely to the for-sale market. Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $379,914 median sold price, up 1.34% year over year, with 60 homes sold and 34 median days on market. It records inventory of 161 homes and 8.2 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 98.3%; 10.35% sold above list and 27.77% went off market within two weeks. Those are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 4.86% cross-source screening ratio only, not an estimate of property economics. The price increase partly challenges a uniformly soft reading, whereas ample supply, below-list average sales, and falling asking rent temper that counterpoint. Property-level interpretation requires matching bedroom count, unit type, condition, listed rent, included utilities, lease terms, sale dates, and genuinely comparable sales before decision-level use; how closely does the target property resemble these broad observations?
","findings":[{"body":"June ZIP ZORI was $1,538, down 2.72% from a year earlier. The three-year annualized change was also negative, unlike the positive five-year annualized change. Full history coverage and limited measured monthly variation make the cooling evidence useful, but the prior drawdown shows that a current index reading remains a market measure rather than a unit quote or forecast.","title":"Recent rent cooling breaks from the long horizon"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD measure different universes. ZORI tracks typical observed asking rent across blended rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Differences among them should be interpreted as scope and construction differences, not as competing quotes for the same available home.","title":"Rent sources are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The ZIP-wide median household income exceeds the arithmetic income boundary created by applying the 30% screen to current ZORI. That does not erase the reported renter burden: a substantial share of occupied renter households reports gross-rent costs at or above the threshold. The apparent contrast reflects different populations and measurements, including gross rent with selected utilities versus a current asking-rent index.","title":"Aggregate income clears the screen while renter burden remains material"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale record combines a year-over-year gain in median sold price with extended months of supply, an average sale-to-list result below list, and a limited above-list share. That mixture challenges a simple conclusion drawn solely from cooling asking rents. It does not, however, provide rental transactions, property operating costs, or evidence that a particular unit can attain the ZIP-wide ZORI.","title":"Resale signals are mixed and remain separate from rental evidence"}],"risks":["A ZIP-wide ZORI is a blended index across rental types, so a particular unit can differ because of bedroom count, condition, utilities, lease terms, timing, and active availability.","ACS estimates describe a ZCTA statistical area through a five-year survey of occupied renter homes; they are not contemporaneous listings and carry survey uncertainty, even when geography matches Zillow’s label.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits the local HUD proportional structure, not measured bedroom rents. It can misstate the observed premium for a specific apartment type or building.","Redfin’s resale measures cover rolling-three-month for-sale transactions and listings. They cannot establish rental demand, a lease rate, operating costs, vacancy at a specific home, or property-level economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent comes from occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard. Their differences reflect source universe and construction, so they should not be treated as competing quotes for the same unit.","q":"Why do the Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures differ?"},{"a":"It is the annual household income obtained by applying the 30% arithmetic screen to annualized current ZORI. The comparison with the ZCTA median household income is an aggregate screen boundary, not affordability advice, an income claim about tenants, or a landlord’s application qualification rule. Actual household expenses, included utilities, and qualification standards are outside it.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"Not by itself. Median sold price and sale-to-list or supply statistics come from rolling-three-month ZIP resale activity, not rental transactions. Here, the resale price increase sits beside substantial months of supply and below-list average sale terms, creating a mixed for-sale signal that may challenge a simple reading of falling asking rents but cannot explain or forecast them.","q":"Does the resale price change confirm the rental trend?"},{"a":"Useful property-level matching fields include verified bedroom count, unit type, condition, listed asking rent, included utilities, availability, and lease terms. For a sale comparison, match sale date, property type, marketing history, and genuinely comparable closed sales. Those checks test whether a property resembles ZIP aggregates rather than assuming an index or resale median applies directly.","q":"Which property-level checks matter before applying these ZIP measures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1272.438833},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1303.736011},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1306.357904},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1320.986712},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1292.591336},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1295.227797},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1283.601469},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1303.413679},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1304.777441},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1304.412151},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1303.145853},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1302.40376},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1302.696888},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1290.970671},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1298.006782},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1300.264822},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1308.558602},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1309.315789},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1316.156421},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1320.068832},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1325.876682},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1322.329413},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1329.529344},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1339.684893},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1352.552154},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1342.439706},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1341.685238},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1339.597044},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1361.569922},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1365.08105},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1377.128303},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1369.237969},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1372.386759},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1370.772669},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1383.623467},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1388.85209},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1393.247153},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1401.540924},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1402.68707},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1409.418912},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1402.389381},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1407.784377},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1406.230523},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1416.054983},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1420.380492},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1433.591376},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1430.350733},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1431.827871},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1432.347101},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1443.255919},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1452.317939},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1448.343621},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1440.239407},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1419.783412},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1409.70043},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1394.14057},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1384.771022},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1376.582184},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1379.392748},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1374.88719},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1372.092789},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1365.332761},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1368.871659},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1383.599018},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1400.613017},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1427.671874},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1448.257588},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1474.023413},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1494.869106},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1522.087901},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1543.183113},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1562.352297},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1581.466258},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1591.409468},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1599.839457},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1597.539521},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1608.998389},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1613.764423},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1624.300648},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1633.121735},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1639.261267},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1637.321088},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1634.180091},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1633.92041},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1634.54448},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1640.31232},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1646.50626},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1649.239247},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1640.067935},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1634.033478},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1632.175942},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1630.453117},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1628.233175},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1623.541863},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1621.611676},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1623.253081},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1623.780387},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1627.832188},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1625.997905},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1633.356233},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1633.395954},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1637.185517},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1630.597435},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1631.910682},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1626.67778},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1624.779448},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1611.966837},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1606.050667},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1591.178927},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1585.262515},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1575.811913},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1572.47633},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1577.128558},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1579.169013},{"period":"2025-06-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