ZIP 80207 presents a pronounced asking-rent-versus-broader-context tension. Zillow ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, was $2,762 in June 2026. For wider rent context, the Denver city scope was $1,877, the Denver County scope was $1,889, and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro scope was $1,930; the ZIP index was about 47% above the city figure. Those wider geographies are comparison context rather than substitutes for a ZIP observation. The current reading therefore describes a higher ZIP-level asking-rent index, not a statement that every available home commands that amount or that every rental type moves alike.
The historical record supports an upward longer path but shows a slower recent pace. Exact same-month ZORI change was 1.9% over one year, 2.3% annualized over three years, and 3.8% annualized over five years. Thus, the latest direction remains positive and confirms the longer path, while the shorter-period gain is below both longer-run rates. History coverage is complete across 66 monthly observations and 65 consecutive monthly returns. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.3% means a single current index reading should be treated with moderate, not absolute, precision about recent movement. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 3.8%, documenting the largest historical retreat rather than predicting another one. Among history-eligible ZIPs, discovery ranks were 1,484 for momentum, 2,083 for stability, and 1,978 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking discovery measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The apparent gap between current asking rent and survey rent is mainly a source-universe distinction. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,879 with a $140 margin of error; it is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That value sits about 47% below ZORI, which is an asking-rent index rather than a survey of occupied leases. The matched ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD’s local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR benchmark was $2,089, and the ZIP asking-rent index was 32.2% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent observation, so neither benchmark should be relabeled as a current market listing price.
The bedroom view is a model, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Modelled ZIP estimates, created by scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder, are $2,172 for a studio, $2,319 for one bedroom, the headline-index level for two bedrooms, $3,615 for three bedrooms, and $4,031 for four bedrooms. This construction preserves the ZIP’s asking-rent index level while using local HUD relative bedroom steps. It is useful for comparing the implied size ladder, but it cannot identify the rent of a specific available unit, the mix of buildings behind the index, or the utilities and concessions attached to an advertised lease.
The affordability screen is close to the reported income midpoint but should not be mistaken for a qualification decision. Applying the arithmetic 30% screen to the current asking-rent index produces required annual household income of $110,480, versus matched-ZCTA median household income of $115,542; the index-to-income calculation is 28.7%. ACS nevertheless reports 1,046 of 2,214 renter households, or 47.2%, as paying at least that share of income toward rent. Burden is a household-level survey outcome, not evidence about the affordability of any particular dwelling or applicant. The ZCTA had 9,023 housing units and a 2.5% vacancy rate, while renters represented 25.2% of occupied homes. Its structure inventory is predominantly single-family rather than large multifamily, and only a limited portion of recorded vacancy was classified as for rent. Those aggregate facts do not establish vacancy, condition, or pricing at an individual property.
Broader tenure and affordability context points in a different direction from the ZIP’s low renter share. The Denver city ACS context reports a 51.2% renter share and a 6.7% vacancy rate; the Denver County ACS context reports median gross rent of $1,831; and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro context calculation places rent-to-income at 21.9%. Each is a wider-area context measure, not a ZIP substitute. Relative to those contexts, the ZIP combines a much higher asking-rent index with a more owner-heavy occupied base and lower vacancy. The metro’s apartment-market measures are also metro-only evidence and cannot be used as direct observations of leasing conditions within this ZIP.
Redfin supplies a separate, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation for the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $652,353, up 0.5% year over year, with 90 homes sold and median marketing time of 12 days. Inventory was 66 homes and months of supply stood at 2.2, while the average sale-to-list relationship was 99.6% and 29.6% of sales closed above list. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals only. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 5.1%, a cross-source screening ratio rather than a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. Low supply and short marketing time are consistent with the ZIP’s constrained aggregate vacancy picture, but the modest resale price change challenges any simple reading that the stronger multiyear rent history is mirrored by equally strong recent for-sale price movement.
The evidence is best used as a scoped screen with substantial property-level limits. ZORI does not reveal the bedroom mix, lease terms, concessions, utilities, quality, or availability of a listing; ACS estimates are survey aggregates; HUD standards are administrative; and Redfin describes completed resale activity. A property review would need to confirm the advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, concession terms, unit condition, current availability, and the relevant listing or sale history. It should also confirm whether the property’s delivery address and its statistical geography align, because the Census ZCTA and USPS ZIP are not identical boundaries. The central unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s terms resemble the blended asking-rent index closely enough for this ZIP-level screen to be informative.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $2,762, materially above the city, county, and metro rent-context figures. This is a ZIP-level asking-rent index blended across rental types, so the premium is a market-screening observation rather than proof of the rent for a particular listing, building type, or lease term.","title":"Asking-rent premium is the central signal"},{"body":"Same-month rent change was positive across the one-, three-, and five-year windows, but the recent annual pace was lower than the longer annualized rates. Complete history coverage supports the measurement, while observed variability and drawdown indicate that one current index value should not be treated as a perfectly stable rent signal.","title":"Growth remained positive but has slowed"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen is slightly below the matched-ZCTA median household income, yet nearly half of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at the selected threshold. The latter is an ACS household aggregate, not evidence that a given home is unaffordable, vacant, or suitable for a specific applicant.","title":"Affordability evidence is mixed"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show short marketing time, limited supply, and sale-to-list results near parity, while median sold-price growth was modest. That combination supports a liquidity reading in the for-sale universe but does not convert the rent-to-price screen into property income, a cap rate, or rental-market transaction evidence.","title":"Resale liquidity is firmer than recent price growth"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD FMR/SAFMR, and Redfin resale data measure different populations, timing conventions, and purposes. Comparing them without retaining those source boundaries can create false conclusions about current lease pricing.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS figures carry survey uncertainty. Aggregate household income, rent burden, vacancy, and tenure data may not match a specific address or property.","The bedroom figures are modelled by applying the HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. They are not measured asking rents, do not capture unit quality or concessions, and should not replace property-specific listings.","Redfin records completed ZIP resale activity over a rolling period, not rental transactions or property operating results. The annualized rent-to-price calculation excludes costs, financing, taxes, repairs, and property-specific income information."],"qa":[{"a":"The Zillow ZORI figure is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for identifying the current asking-rent level and its history, but it is not a signed-lease average, a utility-inclusive gross-rent measure, or a quote for any one available unit.","q":"What does the current Zillow figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS median gross rent comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a current asking-rent index. The sources cover different renter populations, different timing, and different rent concepts, so the gap should not be interpreted as an error or a direct lease discount.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"They are modelled ZIP estimates derived by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They can frame an implied relative size range, but they are not measured bedroom rents and cannot capture a particular property’s condition, utilities, concessions, availability, or lease structure.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"It adds direct ZIP evidence about the for-sale resale market: sold prices, sales volume, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It can show whether resale liquidity looks constrained or loose, but it does not describe rental transactions, operating income, tenant demand, or the economics of a specific property.","q":"What does the Redfin evidence add to the rental screen?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2144.916591},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2209.108821},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2231.2386},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2242.248491},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2263.427489},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2290.417203},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2294.252581},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2311.817056},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2323.18487},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2352.27935},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2418.454985},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2444.642348},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2478.770148},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2441.096045},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2424.196434},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2445.312984},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2465.37808},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2487.692719},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2480.554021},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2486.991817},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2498.763851},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2516.833001},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2510.643235},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2505.595077},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2489.98463},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2522.557194},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2577.623922},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2598.542706},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2588.757058},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2581.648213},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2606.831616},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2606.862692},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2599.144756},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2631.523575},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2672.511259},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2681.722598},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2652.953713},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2622.025545},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2626.007372},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2630.515212},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2674.272423},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2683.03969},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2697.675718},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2704.525542},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2712.753307},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2699.498871},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2682.378505},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2731.930801},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2742.202481},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2792.251568},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2744.440721},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2760.53746},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2716.427183},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2711.920209},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2700.198179},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2703.73638},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2709.777768},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2711.075705},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2715.382474},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2685.559455},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2705.277741},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2689.555986},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2724.193853},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2718.915217},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2746.44078},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2762.315812}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2711.920209,"endRent":2762.315812,"change":0.01858299622265913,"cagr":0.01858299622265913},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2581.648213,"endRent":2762.315812,"change":0.06998149402782317,"cagr":0.022803225138433802},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2290.417203,"endRent":2762.315812,"change":0.20603172574057882,"cagr":0.03817782064877573}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03821006467422994,"annualizedVolatility":0.03339279967875292,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}