At $2,219 in June 2026, the 80211 Zillow Observed Rent Index, or ZORI, was 0.38% above the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types; it is not a record of every signed lease, a utility-inclusive housing cost, or a measured bedroom median. The recent gain does not simply extend the whole path. Exact same-month annualized change was -0.12% over three years but 2.42% over five years. In other words, the latest positive reading breaks from the slight three-year retreat yet remains much slower than the five-year growth pace. That mixed history, rather than the small one-year increase alone, is the key caution when interpreting a current asking-rent snapshot.
Resale evidence introduces a separate tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation at the stated June endpoint recorded a $796,820 median sold price, down 3.12% year over year, alongside 206 homes sold and a 19-day median marketing time. Its 249-home inventory supported 3.7 months of supply; the average sale-to-list ratio was 99.32%, and 24.52% of sales closed above list. These are resale, not rental, transactions. The price decline challenges a simple interpretation that the modest current ZORI gain and longer-run rent increase are moving in lockstep, while the sales and marketing readings describe ZIP resale liquidity. Annualized ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 3.34% cross-source screening ratio only, not a property-level return measure.
The five-digit label 80211 serves both as Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and as a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not an area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so matching labels does not erase source differences. For wider context only, the City of Denver rent context is $1,876.92, Denver County’s context rent is $1,889, and the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro context rent is $1,930; each is below the ZIP’s current index. These city, county, and metro figures are broader-area context, not ZIP rent observations. The contrast establishes a higher ZIP index relative to its named surrounding geographies, but it does not establish why rents differ or describe a particular building.
Scope matters more than the dollar gap alone. In the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,970. This is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a typical asking-rent index. The current index sits 12.6% above that ACS median, an apples-to-different-universes comparison rather than evidence that an available unit costs more than an occupied household’s home. ACS also reports median household income and rent burden as survey estimates, not current lease underwriting. Its five-year design makes the result useful for population context, while limiting direct comparison with the current ZIP asking-rent reading.
Bedroom sizing is modelled, not observed. The studio, one-, two-, three-, and four-bedroom monthly estimates are $1,745, $1,863, $2,219, $2,904, and $3,239, respectively. They scale the ZIP ZORI by the local FY2026 HUD bedroom ladder, which is a HUD FMR/SAFMR administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Therefore these are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they should not be read as unit quotes or rental comparables. The two-bedroom model matches the ZIP index by construction; the larger estimates reflect the HUD ladder’s relative steps, not a direct sample of available larger apartments or houses.
An arithmetic affordability screen frames the gap between the index and survey income without qualifying any applicant. At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, the current monthly ZIP index requires $88,760 in annual income; matched-ZCTA ACS median household income is $121,439. Annualized ZORI is thus 21.9% of that median income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports that 3,583 of 10,843 renter-occupied households, or 33.04%, paid at least the threshold share of income toward rent in its five-year survey. That burden share describes surveyed households in aggregate and cannot prove affordability, burden, or utility terms for any specific unit.
Housing context also shows why aggregate vacancy cannot identify unit availability. The ZCTA survey counts 21,790 housing units, including 1,239 vacant units, for a 5.69% vacancy rate. It also records 10,843 renter-occupied homes. Within the stock, 12,244 units are single-family and 6,024 are large multifamily. These counts describe the survey’s broad stock rather than current listings; even the reported vacant-for-rent category cannot establish whether any named unit is vacant, suitable, or priced at the index. Housing form and tenure composition are context, not rental comps.
History data strengthen confidence in measurement coverage but not in a forecast. The ZIP series has 100% coverage, with 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns through the stated endpoint. The observed monthly movements convert to 2.49% annualized variability; combined with complete coverage, that offers some confidence that the current aggregate reading is not solely an isolated highly erratic month. The different question is downside path: maximum drawdown reached -3.22%, showing that declines occurred despite the series’ relative stability. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 669 for stability, 2,350 for momentum, and 1,810 for the balanced score, where lower rank is higher. These measurements are backward-looking only, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Any property-level review still needs the advertised asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, availability, and sale comparables matched to the property; aggregate ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin evidence cannot substitute.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $2,219 and is 0.38% higher than a year earlier. Exact same-month history remains mixed: the three-year annualized change is -0.12%, versus 2.42% over five years. Because ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, this is an aggregate asking-rent reading, not a lease comp, forecast, or measured bedroom median.","title":"Mixed rent path despite a positive current reading"},{"body":"The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation has a $796,820 median sold price, a 3.12% year-over-year decline, 206 homes sold, a 19-day median marketing time, and 3.7 months of supply. These readings document a for-sale market, not rental transactions. The coexisting resale price decline and small positive current rent change create a cross-source tension rather than a conclusion about a property’s economics.","title":"Resale softens while observable liquidity remains"},{"body":"The ACS matched-ZCTA five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,970, below the current ZIP asking-rent index. ACS covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities, while ZORI measures typical asking rent across rental types. The $88,760 income screen is arithmetic only. Survey burden describes aggregate renter households and does not determine affordability or qualification for an individual unit.","title":"Survey affordability and asking rent differ by design"},{"body":"The bedroom estimates use the relative FY2026 local HUD ladder to scale ZIP ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so the modelled studio-through-four-bedroom figures are not measured market rents. The two-bedroom estimate equals ZORI by construction, while the other bedroom figures inherit the HUD ladder’s proportional differences.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a scaling model rather than a rent survey"}],"risks":["The current Zillow index is an aggregate across rental types and advertised asking conditions. A particular unit can differ in bedroom count, included utilities, timing, availability, and stated rent, none of which the index establishes.","ACS ZCTA values are five-year survey estimates for occupied renter homes and use a statistical area that is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Their median gross rent and burden statistics cannot be treated as current unit-specific lease evidence.","HUD’s bedroom-specific standard provides the proportions for modelled ZIP estimates, but it is an administrative FMR/SAFMR benchmark rather than asking rent. The resulting studio-through-four-bedroom figures are not measured market rents or advertised unit quotes.","Redfin’s data cover for-sale and resale activity, not rentals, and the annualized-rent-to-sold-price calculation omits property-level terms and costs. Past rent variability, drawdown, and resale price change provide no forecast or investment conclusion."],"qa":[{"a":"The $2,219 figure is Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blending rental types. It is not the ACS median gross rent, a signed-lease average, or a measured bedroom rent. Although 80211 is matched to a Census ZCTA, the ZCTA is statistical and not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"What does the $2,219 current rent figure describe?"},{"a":"The label 80211 is used here both as Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and as the Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is statistical, while USPS delivery ZIP definitions serve mail delivery. The label alignment permits a stated comparison, but it does not make ACS survey values and Zillow asking-rent observations the same geographic or measurement universe.","q":"Why is the five-digit match not a geography equivalence?"},{"a":"The bedroom figures apply the relative FY2026 local HUD ladder to the ZIP ZORI, so the two-bedroom result equals ZORI by construction. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Consequently, the studio, one-, three-, and four-bedroom outputs are modelled estimates, not measurements from listed or leased units.","q":"Why are the bedroom figures not measured rents?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month evidence is direct ZIP resale evidence, while the 30% screen converts the current asking-rent index into an income arithmetic threshold. Neither evaluates a renter’s qualification or establishes property economics. The annualized-rent-to-price figure simply divides aggregate sources, and the resale data cannot be transformed into rental comps or a forecast.","q":"How should the resale and affordability screens be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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