ZIP 80231 presents a cross-market split rather than a single directional signal. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,450 per month, down 4.46% from a year earlier; ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. At the same time, Redfin’s ZIP resale observation shows a $494,776 median sold price, up 23.69% year over year. The rent decline and resale-price increase describe different evidence universes, so neither proves a shared cause. Still, the contrast is decision-relevant: current asking-rent conditions are cooling while the recent for-sale observation reports much higher transaction pricing.
The longer Zillow history confirms, rather than breaks from, the recent cooling direction. Exact same-month ZORI change was -4.46% over one year, -2.54% over three years, and +0.76% over five years. Thus, the latest decline follows a multi-year pullback after a modest positive result over the full five-year span. Monthly ZORI changes produced 3.11% annualized variability, a measured dispersion that limits confidence in any one current rent snapshot. The historical peak-to-trough drawdown reached 12.37%, showing that the observed asking-rent index has undergone a material retreat. Coverage is 100%, and transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,890 for momentum, 1,797 for stability, and 2,768 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched Census ZCTA supplies a separate resident-household lens. This five-digit ZIP label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,764; it covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s asking-rent index. The $1,450 ZORI is therefore lower, but the difference does not establish a concession, utility treatment, or lease term for a particular home. A 30% required-income screen produces $58,000, versus $76,502 median household income and a 22.74% asking-rent-to-income ratio. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS also estimates that 5,369 of 9,906 renter households, or 54.20%, paid 30% or more of income toward rent, a survey burden measure rather than proof about any current applicant.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than measured. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder places the studio estimate at $1,140 and the top of the modelled ladder at $2,116, with $1,450 at its ZORI-baseline midpoint. These are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not observed bedroom rents or property-level rental comparables. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR standard used in that scaling is $2,089 at the comparable ladder position. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so the gap between it and ZORI should not be read as a measured discount or as a lease-price prediction.
ACS housing composition helps frame how broadly rental evidence may apply without describing any individual property. The ZCTA contains 6,119 single-family units and 4,953 units in large multifamily structures, while renters make up the majority of occupied homes. Its 10.25% all-unit vacancy rate is higher than the city and county context readings, and ACS separately identifies units classified as vacant for rent. Those figures can indicate slack in the aggregate stock, but they do not establish that a specific unit is vacant, currently marketed, appropriately priced, or available on a particular date. Likewise, the elevated renter-burden share describes surveyed occupied households, not the payment capacity or experience of a future tenant.
Wider geographies point in the same relative direction on asking-rent level: Denver city context rent is $1,876.92, Arapahoe County context rent is $1,821, and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metro context rent is $1,930. Each is broader context only, not a ZIP rent comp or a replacement for 80231’s ZORI. The ZIP’s renter share and vacancy rate both exceed the corresponding City of Denver and Arapahoe County context measures, while the metro apartment-vacancy metric covers a different apartment-market universe from the ACS all-unit vacancy rate. These comparisons reinforce that geography and source scope must remain explicit when interpreting the lower ZIP asking-rent index.
Redfin supplies direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, not rental transactions. It reports 109 homes sold with a median marketing time of 25 days, inventory of 126 homes, and 3.5 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.28%, while 15.11% of sales closed above list price. These liquidity and pricing signals sit alongside the 23.69% median sold-price increase, which challenges any simple reading of rent cooling as a uniformly soft housing-market condition. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals a 3.52% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or a measure of a specific asset’s economics.
The evidence has material limits. Zillow summarizes blended asking-rent observations, ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a short rolling resale window. The sources also do not share a common property mix, utility treatment, timing convention, or transaction universe. Concrete property-level checks would need to identify the actual bedroom count, advertised and effective rent, included utilities, concessions, lease length, occupancy status, condition, list-price history, sale date, and transaction characteristics. Those checks determine whether any individual home resembles the ZIP-level indicators; the aggregate data alone cannot do so.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI for 80231 declined 4.46% over the latest year and also fell on a three-year same-month basis. Redfin, however, reported a 23.69% increase in ZIP median sold price. The evidence is not contradictory in a technical sense because ZORI measures asking-rent conditions and Redfin measures for-sale closings, but the split prevents a single-market narrative.","title":"Cooling asking-rent history conflicts with resale appreciation"},{"body":"The simple 30% screen places required income for the current ZORI at $58,000, below the ZCTA median household income of $76,502. Yet ACS estimates that 54.20% of renter households were rent burdened. The distinction matters because the income screen is arithmetic using a current asking-rent index, while ACS burden is a survey measure across occupied renter homes.","title":"Household affordability screens differ from observed burden"},{"body":"The ZCTA’s vacancy rate is 10.25%, and its housing stock includes both single-family and large multifamily units. That combination provides useful aggregate context for rental supply, but does not verify marketing availability, a landlord’s effective rent, concessions, or the condition of a particular unit. Vacant-for-rent classifications are not equivalent to current listing records.","title":"Vacancy and stock mix support caution, not unit-level conclusions"},{"body":"The direct Redfin resale window shows 109 homes sold, 25 median days on market, 3.5 months of supply, and an average sale-to-list ratio below 100%. Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.52%, but it combines two sources with different property mixes and timing. It is a screening ratio only and cannot measure operating costs, financing, taxes, vacancy losses, or property-level return.","title":"Resale liquidity is observable, but the rent-price ratio remains limited"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD FMR/SAFMR, and Redfin resale measures cover distinct populations, timing methods, and property universes, so apparent gaps cannot be treated as directly interchangeable prices.","Recent rent cooling is historical evidence rather than a forecast. The prior 12.37% drawdown and measured monthly variability mean a current ZORI reading should not be assumed to represent every listing.","The ZCTA vacancy rate and renter-burden share are aggregate survey measures. Neither confirms a specific unit’s availability, lease concession, utility inclusion, condition, or a household’s likely payment experience.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation reports completed for-sale transactions rather than rentals. Median price, marketing time, and sale-to-list results may not apply to a particular property type or transaction date."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures answer different questions. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, unit mix, lease status, utility treatment, and survey versus asking-rent methodology can all contribute.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI lower than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"It is a mechanical calculation that annualizes the current ZIP ZORI and divides it by 30%. It is not advice, a lending standard, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Household income, utilities, deposits, debt, concessions, and actual lease terms are not represented by that arithmetic screen.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"No. The rent signal comes from Zillow’s observed asking-rent index, while the price signal comes from Redfin’s direct rolling resale observation. They cover different transaction types and may move differently. The useful conclusion is that the ZIP had a rent-versus-resale tension in the reported periods, not that one source invalidates the other.","q":"Does the rise in median sold price disprove the rent cooling signal?"},{"a":"Useful checks include the actual bedroom count, advertised rent, effective rent after concessions, included utilities, lease length, move-in timing, occupancy status, condition, and unit type. On the resale side, relevant checks include list-price history, sale date, property condition, transaction characteristics, and whether the home resembles the sales included in the rolling ZIP observation.","q":"What property-level information remains necessary before comparing a home with these ZIP indicators?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1279.258338},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1265.38058},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1275.042361},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1266.922231},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1269.648605},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1269.014886},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1265.972527},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1281.850668},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1297.789359},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1303.600212},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1318.082522},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1323.190742},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1338.161053},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1346.195977},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1363.69317},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1331.735996},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1314.605506},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1293.986673},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1290.524877},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1297.81886},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1314.616413},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1328.650509},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1335.041286},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1329.20902},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1321.973136},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1318.077711},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1321.192442},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1338.847699},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1356.810547},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1377.917547},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1396.607115},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1409.674967},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1430.280979},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1450.227928},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1465.474791},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1475.432938},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1483.886162},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1510.421352},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1523.354613},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1537.42392},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1545.4215},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1564.993763},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1580.33791},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1586.172002},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1573.405264},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1554.379281},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1552.084477},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1560.714685},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1572.314635},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1549.112586},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1551.629434},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1550.215257},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1563.372836},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1564.904227},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1566.392905},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1579.451021},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1582.192078},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1593.045189},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1603.488678},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1623.709751},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1634.548215},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1654.804778},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1648.6509},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1650.213939},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1639.277638},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1632.220833},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1618.381234},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1613.025124},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1622.409527},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1623.443477},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1619.122349},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1591.486544},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1562.371356},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1538.145088},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1523.589602},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1511.477961},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1513.457082},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1513.816836},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1517.834259},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1506.770144},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1492.691629},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1481.538625},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1471.071116},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1470.276536},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1474.15878},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1476.537859},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1478.837521},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1476.765219},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1466.928489},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1458.402191},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1450.153115}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":91,"firstPeriod":"2018-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":91,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1517.834259,"endRent":1450.153115,"change":-0.04459060243151347,"cagr":-0.04459060243151347},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1566.392905,"endRent":1450.153115,"change":-0.07420857795573321,"cagr":-0.025374617889443618},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1396.607115,"endRent":1450.153115,"change":0.038340059580750596,"cagr":0.00755304975428106}},"maxDrawdown":-0.12367118207583505,"annualizedVolatility":0.031097580713261345,"consecutiveReturnCount":90}}