Rent cooling—not a long-run collapse—is the central tension in 80504. At the June 2026 Zillow endpoint, this five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZIP ZORI is $2,111 per month, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The exact same-month one-year change is −0.18%, compared with annualized same-month gains of 1.11% across three years and 3.61% across five years. Thus, the latest reading breaks from the longer positive path, but it does not convert a single current index into a forecast or a unit-specific quote.
The history series supplies perspective rather than a prediction. It has 79 observations with complete coverage, annualized monthly-return variability of 2.56%, and a maximum drawdown of −2.80%. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,289 for momentum, 803 for stability, and 1,845 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The negative recent direction is a break from the positive multiyear path in the preceding paragraph. The observed variability means readers should place more confidence in the series trajectory than in a single asking-rent snapshot, particularly because a current index remains an aggregate across rental types and terms.
Source boundaries prevent false comparisons. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,996 for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and is a survey measure, not current asking rent. That makes it a different universe from ZORI even though it is below the ZIP index. The ACS estimate has a stated survey margin of error, another reason not to treat the gap as a precise pricing spread. The FY 2026 HUD two-bedroom fair-market-rent standard is $2,124. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so its proximity to ZORI is not evidence that leases or listings transact at either figure.
Bedroom detail is available only as a model, not as a ZIP leasing census. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,543 for a studio, $1,784 for one bedroom, $2,111 for two bedrooms, $2,803 for three bedrooms, and $3,219 for four bedrooms. They inherit the index and HUD ladder assumptions: the two-bedroom match to headline ZORI is a scaling result, not measured two-bedroom rent. The ladder should not be read as achieved rents, an inventory count, or proof that a particular property has those asking terms. A unit's actual bedroom classification, utility treatment, condition, concessions, and current list status remain outside this model.
The income screen produces a second tension. Applying a 30% rent-to-income calculation to the headline monthly ZORI yields $84,440 in required annual household income. The ZCTA ACS five-year median household income is $113,643, making the index-to-income arithmetic 22.3%. That screen is arithmetic only: it is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. Yet among 5,038 surveyed renter-occupied households, 2,389, or 47.4%, reported paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent. Because those burden data are survey-based, include gross-rent treatment, and summarize households rather than units, they cannot establish affordability or burden for a particular listing.
The ZCTA stock count is led by single-family units rather than large-multifamily units. Of 24,615 housing units, 538 are vacant, a 2.2% vacancy rate, and 156 are recorded as vacant for rent. The stock also contains 19,878 single-family units and 1,337 large-multifamily units; renter households represent 20.9% of occupied homes. These counts describe stock and status in the ACS ZCTA survey universe, not live listings or lease availability at a given address. In particular, a vacancy designation does not show a unit's rent, condition, readiness, concessions, or tenant turnover, so it cannot turn the low aggregate vacancy rate into proof about a particular rental.
Broader benchmarks place the ZIP between surrounding context measures without replacing its direct reading. For wider context only, the Longmont city context rent is $1,961, the Weld County context rent is $1,758, and the Greeley, CO metro context rent is $2,297; each names a broader scope than the ZIP. The ZIP index sits above the city and county context figures but below the metro context figure. Scope differences do not reconcile the distinct ZORI, ACS gross-rent, or HUD administrative universes. These are comparison points, not replacements for direct ZIP rental evidence.
For-sale evidence corroborates the recent cooling signal but also supplies a separate liquidity check. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation—not rental transactions—the median sold price is $569,871, down 5.81% year over year; 301 homes sold, median marketing time was 45 days, and inventory was 315 homes. Months of supply was 3.2, average sale-to-list was 99.39%, and 20.84% sold above list. The resale price decline aligns directionally with the one-year ZORI decline, while the recorded sales and supply show a distinct for-sale liquidity picture; neither result establishes rental affordability. The 4.45% figure—annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price—is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Which current property-level asking terms, included utilities, bedroom designation, condition, concessions, list price, and transaction terms match these ZIP-level benchmarks?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $2,111 in June 2026, down 0.18% from the same month a year earlier. That follows exact annualized gains of 1.11% over three years and 3.61% over five years. The full 79-observation history and 2.56% annualized monthly-return variability make this a documented cooling reading, but the recent decline is backward-looking evidence, not a rent forecast or investment conclusion.","title":"Cooling interrupts, rather than erases, growth"},{"body":"The $1,996 ACS median gross rent is a 2024 five-year, occupied-renter-home survey result that includes selected utilities. HUD's FY 2026 two-bedroom $2,124 standard is an administrative bedroom benchmark. Neither is a current asking-rent quote. The ZIP's bedroom figures are instead modelled ZORI estimates scaled by the HUD ladder, so they establish internal sizing only, not measured rents by bedroom.","title":"Separate universes prevent false matching"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen on the headline ZORI requires $84,440 annual income versus a ZCTA median household income of $113,643. Yet 47.4% of surveyed renter households pay at least 30% of income toward gross rent. That contrast makes household distribution important: neither ZIP-level screening arithmetic nor ZCTA burden data determines whether one address is affordable or whether an applicant qualifies.","title":"Income arithmetic and burden evidence diverge"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month resale series shows a $569,871 median sold price, a 5.81% annual decline, 301 homes sold, 3.2 months of supply, and a 99.39% average sale-to-list ratio. This for-sale activity confirms that resale conditions were observable while prices softened, but it is not rental transaction evidence. The 4.45% rent-price screen is cross-source only, never property income or return.","title":"Resale softening is not rental evidence"}],"risks":["ZORI summarizes a typical observed ZIP asking-rent index across rental types; it does not reveal a property's bedroom count, condition, included utilities, concessions, lease term, or live availability.","ACS estimates apply to a matched statistical ZCTA over five survey years and to occupied renter homes. Their gross-rent utility treatment and survey margin of error limit comparison with a current ZIP asking-rent index.","HUD FMR/SAFMR and the scaled bedroom ladder are standards and model outputs, respectively. They do not measure current leases, achieved rents, or available listings, so apparent alignment can be mechanical.","Redfin reports ZIP resale observations rather than rental transactions. Median sale price, supply, marketing, and sale-to-list data cannot identify an individual property's operating costs, rental income, financing, or investment outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Shared ZIP and ZCTA labeling does not make the three measures interchangeable, and a ZCTA itself is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why do ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD values differ?"},{"a":"The history records exact same-month changes through June 2026, along with variability, drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks. It shows a negative latest one-year movement after positive three- and five-year changes, which is a break in direction. It neither projects future rents nor says how a particular lease, building, or investment will perform.","q":"What does the cooling history establish?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates obtained by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents. Separately, the 30% screen is annual-income arithmetic using headline ZORI. Surveyed gross-rent burden and the screen describe different household and measurement universes, so neither one decides a particular applicant's qualification or a specific unit's affordability.","q":"How should bedroom and affordability figures be read?"},{"a":"Redfin contributes direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observations: it describes sales, pricing, supply, and sale-to-list behavior in the for-sale market. It supplies no rental transactions or operating-cost data. Property-level interpretation remains dependent on the actual asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, condition, concessions, list price, and transaction terms, which are not established by ZIP aggregates.","q":"What does Redfin add, and what remains to be checked?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1703.041161},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1713.105592},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1688.43094},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1691.270191},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1686.695141},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1679.6577},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1682.341794},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1684.478863},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1690.333951},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1699.715148},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1701.890901},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1694.715196},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1704.888811},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1716.085224},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1735.786042},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1755.646399},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1753.139217},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1764.458141},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1768.054111},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1794.523469},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1821.669553},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1826.565858},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1846.225711},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1873.006589},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1896.597438},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1890.320218},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1866.641099},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1873.240626},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1912.561983},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1940.511225},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1963.854891},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1961.227946},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1954.253443},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1973.981399},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1975.350943},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1992.315171},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1956.488635},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1977.55085},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2001.052956},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2033.940793},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2031.701026},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2041.308764},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2042.312067},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2046.237657},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2050.550349},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2068.737764},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2071.758771},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2069.2231},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2090.816892},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2102.471828},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2112.693442},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2093.395356},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2096.148914},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2084.585448},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2089.577604},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2096.207571},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2115.74102},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2099.177997},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2094.923516},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2090.819007},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2113.429022},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2132.784845},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2136.512117},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2138.059372},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2122.191396},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2121.944988},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2114.648232},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2114.021799},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2103.961141},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2109.324248},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2115.670872},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2120.79901},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2104.64489},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2085.236669},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2078.206217},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2083.625066},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2097.441371},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2104.570604},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2110.912961}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":79,"firstPeriod":"2019-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":79,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2114.648232,"endRent":2110.912961,"change":-0.0017663793644142611,"cagr":-0.0017663793644142611},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2042.312067,"endRent":2110.912961,"change":0.0335898196502209,"cagr":0.01107353084127527},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1768.054111,"endRent":2110.912961,"change":0.19391875388139646,"cagr":0.03608397081814796}},"maxDrawdown":-0.027994150108194615,"annualizedVolatility":0.025566124960388674,"consecutiveReturnCount":78}}