In 80634, the June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $1,602 per month, but its level comes with a cooling signal: the exact same-month change is -2.46% over 1 year and -0.18% annualized over 3 years, following +2.58% annualized growth over 5 years. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is neither a lease-specific quote nor a median from occupied homes, and it is not a bedroom-specific price. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the matching geography does not mean that the two systems define every address in the same way.
History provides context for that cooling signal without making it predictive. The series contains 76 observations and 75 consecutive monthly returns with 100% coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.26%, and the maximum drawdown is -3.62%. Those backward-looking measurements support greater confidence in the broad index path than in a single current snapshot, which can still be affected by timing and the mix of listings. Recent direction breaks from the longer positive path rather than confirming it. On transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, stability ranks 360 and momentum ranks 2,743; a lower rank is higher. The ranks, variability, and drawdown are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The nearest source cross-check is not a like-for-like rent quote. For the matched Census ZCTA, ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,651, with a $58 90% margin of error, above the current ZORI. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities; ZORI instead is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The apparent proximity of the two values does not establish an available unit’s rent. It reflects different populations, timing, and definitions, and the ACS estimate applies to renter households in the statistical ZCTA rather than necessarily to the currently advertised homes in Zillow’s ZIP index.
The bedroom view is purposely modelled rather than observed. For FY2026, scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates from $1,200 for a studio to $2,655 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; it supplies the proportional ladder rather than rent observations. The construction does not observe unit condition, whether utilities are included, concessions, exact location, lease length, or availability. A bedroom label narrows the reference point but does not transform the figure into a quote for a particular home.
Income arithmetic adds a separate constraint without adjudicating anyone’s ability to rent. At the current monthly index, $64,080 in annual income is the arithmetic amount associated with spending 30% of gross income on rent. This required-income screen is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a household budget determination. The ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $82,742, making the annualized asking-rent-to-income comparison 23.2% before other household expenses. Separately, 4,056 of 6,944 renter households, or 58.4%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. The survey burden measure describes households in aggregate; it cannot prove affordability, a rent level, or approval outcomes for a particular applicant or property.
Survey stock data show the scale behind those household measures. The ACS ZCTA has 26,704 housing units, including 19,666 single-family units and 2,228 units in large multifamily structures. The reported vacancy rate is 5.3%. These counts are a housing-stock snapshot, not a listing inventory. In particular, a vacancy category does not establish the price, condition, bedroom count, concessions, or immediate availability of any specific property. Housing-stock and vacancy evidence should stay in the ACS survey universe, separate from Zillow’s asking-rent index and HUD’s administrative standard. That separation matters when interpreting aggregate vacancy markers alongside a current market index.
Broader geographies run in both directions and remain context only. The Greeley city context rent value of $1,474.4144540644538 is below ZIP ZORI, while the Weld County context and Greeley, CO metro context rent values are each $1,758, above it. Each figure covers a wider geography than the ZIP and is not a restatement of local conditions or a forecast. Property-level review needs the advertised rent, included utilities, bedroom count, exact address geography, availability date, lease term, fees, concessions, and condition. Does a specific listing’s dated, all-in terms actually resemble the relevant modelled bedroom reference and the current ZIP asking-rent index?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI is $1,602. Same-month change is -2.46% at one year and -0.18% annualized at three years, whereas five-year annualized growth remains +2.58%. With 100% historical coverage, the series documents a recent break from the longer positive path. It does not state what rents will do next or establish a price for any particular listing.","title":"Cooling interrupts the longer rent path"},{"body":"HUD scaling produces ZIP monthly modelled estimates ranging from $1,200 studio to $2,655 four bedrooms. Those values use HUD’s bedroom ladder to scale ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard and ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so neither is a measured rent by bedroom or a quote for a specific home.","title":"The bedroom schedule is a model, not a survey"},{"body":"The ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA median gross rent is $1,651, including selected utilities, versus ZORI's $1,602 asking-rent index. ACS observes occupied renter homes, while ZORI observes typical asking rents across rental types. The $64,080 required-income screen is only 30% arithmetic. Survey burden of 58.4% is aggregate household evidence, not an applicant-level result.","title":"Household data tell a different rent story"},{"body":"ACS records 26,704 housing units and a 5.3% vacancy rate in the matched ZCTA, with 19,666 single-family and 2,228 large-multifamily units. These describe the survey area’s stock composition and vacant-unit share. They do not identify advertised homes, the rent or condition of any vacant unit, or whether a unit matches a renter’s bedroom and lease needs.","title":"Vacancy is scale, not availability"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD standards are deliberately noninterchangeable universes. Comparing levels can inform context, but cannot convert a survey median or administrative standard into an asking-rent quote.","Historical coverage is complete, yet the negative recent change, variability, and drawdown are backward-looking. They describe observed movements through June 2026 and provide no evidence about future rents or returns.","Vacancy, tenure, and structure counts are aggregate ZCTA survey measures. They cannot demonstrate that a particular unit is listed, rentable, appropriately sized, affordable, or offered with the same terms as the index.","The income screen uses a fixed thirty-percent arithmetic threshold, while burden is a household survey statistic. Neither measure establishes an applicant’s actual income, household expenses, eligibility, or lease outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes the market index’s current level, not a signed lease, an advertised price for one property, a utility-inclusive payment, or a measured bedroom rent. Its ZIP label is matched to a ZCTA for ACS comparison, but a ZCTA is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery geography.","q":"What does the current Zillow figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. ZORI is an asking-rent index, not a survey median. A difference can arise from population, timing, rental-type coverage, and definitions, so the values are a cross-check rather than substitutes.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent not interchangeable with ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The estimates do not observe a home’s condition, included utilities, lease terms, concessions, location, or availability.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured local rents?"},{"a":"Verify the advertised rent and what it includes, bedroom count, address geography, availability date, lease length, fees, concessions, and condition. Treat the required-income calculation as arithmetic and the vacancy and burden measures as aggregates. Those data do not prove a specific unit’s affordability, availability, or qualification outcome.","q":"What evidence should be checked before applying this report to a listing?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1317.997512},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1328.058377},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1331.714389},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1321.19845},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1334.120151},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1333.417196},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1338.498057},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1337.244941},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1340.621926},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1343.979151},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1366.584337},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1383.03755},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1383.266061},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1381.667538},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1385.384001},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1410.73512},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1424.502749},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1460.405665},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1479.274139},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1503.742113},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1510.222901},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1520.240635},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1526.237611},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1522.940736},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1526.594767},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1529.054466},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1548.012966},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1557.511297},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1568.520403},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1552.696006},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1559.261909},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1562.348979},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1583.387199},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1594.670752},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1601.749489},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1607.077575},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1614.415034},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1621.817749},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1622.701487},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1610.715103},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1607.971729},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1604.365939},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1600.930515},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1593.972087},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1593.096587},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1598.593397},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1597.851329},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1611.888277},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1625.672497},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1637.695749},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1636.333639},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1639.802501},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1637.158052},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1633.433924},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1631.019292},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1638.297879},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1643.819995},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1640.41835},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1638.272643},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1642.588714},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1649.00116},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1652.979077},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1646.009599},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1642.621671},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1648.207316},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1658.32553},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1662.381886},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1660.136902},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1652.235694},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1648.962385},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1647.998692},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1634.874203},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1619.036581},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1605.170001},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1605.324996},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1602.216865}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":76,"firstPeriod":"2020-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":76,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1642.621671,"endRent":1602.216865,"change":-0.024597755352516626,"cagr":-0.024597755352516626},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1610.715103,"endRent":1602.216865,"change":-0.005276065260809704,"cagr":-0.0017617905032366599},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1410.73512,"endRent":1602.216865,"change":0.13573189061884272,"cagr":0.025782212946228844}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03619205761725908,"annualizedVolatility":0.02264340875254709,"consecutiveReturnCount":75}}