82609 has a current asking-rent reading that looks softer than its own longer record. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,436 per month: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted rent for a particular home. The one-year exact same-month change was -1.02%, whereas the corresponding annualized changes were +1.97% over three years and +5.64% over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from the longer upward path. These are backward-looking rent measurements, not a forecast, a view on future demand, or an investment recommendation.
That break deserves caution rather than a decisive reading from a single point. The direct Zillow history has complete coverage: 65 monthly observations through its stated endpoint and 64 consecutive return intervals. Annualized monthly-return variability measured 4.30%, consistent with the supplied high-variability classification and reducing the confidence that one current index level summarizes a stable path. Separately, the maximum drawdown was -4.95%, the largest observed peak-to-trough decline in this history. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,256 for momentum, 2,704 for stability, and 2,739 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. They are discovery descriptors, not performance grades.
Source scope explains another tension. The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,126 for occupied renter homes, with selected utilities included; it does not measure today’s asking market. A ZCTA is a statistical area, and it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even though this label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. The current ZORI is 27.53% above that survey median. Local HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,082, leaving ZORI 32.72% higher. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent observation.
Bedroom figures should therefore not be read as direct listings. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,018 for a studio, $1,131 for one bedroom, $1,436 for two bedrooms, $1,997 for three bedrooms, and $2,409 for four bedrooms. The ladder is useful for consistent size scaling but does not identify the condition, utility package, lease terms, or availability of any unit. Applying the 30% screen to current ZORI produces required income of $57,440. That is arithmetic, not affordability advice or an applicant qualification rule; the corresponding asking-rent-to-median-household-income ratio is 24.27%.
The ACS burden and stock data describe resident households rather than advertised rentals. Of 2,937 occupied renter households, 1,314 reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income, or 44.74%; each count is a survey estimate with stated margins of error. This broad result cannot prove a particular unit is burdensome. The matched ZCTA contained 9,053 housing units, including 5,947 single-family units and 1,216 large-multifamily units. It recorded 526 vacant units, a 5.81% vacancy rate. These stock and vacancy totals establish neither current vacancy at a particular property nor a landlord’s willingness to negotiate.
Relative to broader places, the ZIP’s asking index is higher, but those figures remain context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence: the Casper city context asking-rent value was about $1,363, while both the Natrona County context and the Casper, WY metro context were $1,361. City, county, and metro series cover wider populations and housing mixes than 82609. Their direction or level cannot be treated as a local rental comparable, and their use does not overcome the ZCTA-versus-delivery-ZIP boundary limitation. Because wider series can contain different renter and owner compositions, their apparent gaps do not establish that a property in the ZIP has a particular rent, vacancy position, or tenant profile. The contrast simply frames the ZIP index against named wider scopes.
Resale evidence provides a different, direct ZIP lens but says nothing about rental transactions. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month 82609 for-sale observation through June 30, 2026 reported a $382,414 median sold price, down 4.40% year over year, with 82 homes sold and 26 median days on market. It reported inventory of 56 homes and 2.1 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.39%, while 18.77% of sales closed above list. Those are ZIP resale liquidity and pricing signals only, not rental comps, property economics, or broader-geography results.
Cross-source signals are mixed rather than a single verdict. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals 4.51%, solely a cross-source screening ratio; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The resale price decline is steeper than the recent asking-rent decline, which confirms a recent softening direction across two noncomparable measures, while the multiyear rent record remains positive. Neither series identifies the same homes, reflects the same transaction process, or reports operating costs. Their simultaneous movement is descriptive only: it does not show that one market caused the other, cannot settle unit-level affordability, and does not establish a shared trajectory beyond the observed periods. Yet limited resale supply and short marketing time challenge a simple weak-liquidity reading. A property-level review would still need the actual advertised rent by bedroom, included utilities, concessions, lease terms, availability, condition, and comparable sale dates. Does a specific property’s documentation support the screen without crossing these evidence boundaries?
","findings":[{"body":"June ZIP ZORI declined 1.02% from a year earlier despite positive annualized same-month changes across the prior three and five years. Complete historical coverage supports the calculation, but high monthly-return variability and a prior drawdown mean the present index is a less certain stand-in for a stable local rent level. The evidence measures the past only.","title":"Recent rent movement breaks from the longer record"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR serve different purposes. ZORI tracks a blended typical asking-rent index; ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; HUD sets an administrative bedroom standard. The ZIP’s higher current ZORI therefore should not be interpreted as a direct increase in rent paid by a matched household or as a HUD compliance result.","title":"Rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"ACS reports a substantial share of renter households paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent, alongside a measured ZCTA vacancy rate and a stock tilted toward single-family units. These area-level survey estimates describe households and units in aggregate. They cannot establish the cost burden, vacancy, concessions, quality, or lease availability at any specific rental.","title":"Burden and vacancy are area-level survey evidence"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale series showed a lower median sold price year over year while sale-to-list and marketing measures still indicate active for-sale transactions. That combination is a resale-market tension, not a rental-market conclusion. Comparing annualized ZORI with sale price creates only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot supply net operating results, returns, or property valuation.","title":"Resale softening does not convert into rental evidence"}],"risks":["Because a ZCTA is a statistical boundary rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, ACS household, gross-rent, stock, vacancy, and burden findings may not apply perfectly to each address using 82609.","Complete coverage does not eliminate historical uncertainty: high month-to-month variability and the observed drawdown mean the current ZORI can be an imperfect snapshot of the longer asking-rent path.","The studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled from a HUD ladder, not measurements of listings; actual unit rents can vary with bedroom count, utility inclusion, condition, concessions, terms, and availability.","Redfin tracks for-sale transactions, not rentals, and its rent-to-price screen excludes property-level expenses and financing; therefore, it cannot establish a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return."],"qa":[{"a":"The comparison does not place two versions of the same rent side by side. ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index across rental types, whereas ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. In addition, the matched ZCTA is statistical geography and not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why is ZORI higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD standards are administrative and bedroom-specific, while the model does not observe current units. An actual listing can differ because its included utilities, condition, terms, availability, and bedroom count must be independently documented.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"No. The burden share summarizes survey responses among occupied renter households paying gross rent; it does not identify a building, lease, income verification, utility treatment, or household. The report’s 30% required-income calculation is merely arithmetic based on the index. It is not affordability advice and does not establish whether an applicant qualifies.","q":"Does the rent-burden share prove a particular rental is unaffordable?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the direct ZIP median sold price to compare two different source series at a high level. It is not an income statement. Because it excludes property-specific costs, financing, maintenance, taxes, utilities, and vacancy experience, it cannot be called a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What does the annualized rent-to-sale-price screen mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1016.733452},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1033.504217},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1046.468654},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1070.477805},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1090.877428},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1123.48317},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1154.960651},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1175.972996},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1180.284865},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1175.079634},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1194.730954},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1199.893077},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1218.072113},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1208.819473},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1216.604467},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1212.32157},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1230.41923},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1225.755109},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1212.242241},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1209.046824},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1234.450244},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1270.808409},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1281.488758},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1280.1487},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1276.654489},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1292.18995},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1315.593098},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1335.666985},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1353.89255},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1370.343057},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1382.934009},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1384.126102},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1367.378037},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1340.866469},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1315.612916},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1326.238528},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1365.658222},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1405.61076},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1416.438943},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1412.470567},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1398.368943},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1407.161959},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1416.696853},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1415.132064},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1430.58065},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1439.847542},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1436.305427},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1419.594177},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1407.988803},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1421.23264},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1431.143444},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1453.055514},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1450.300746},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1450.044178},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1451.969998},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1464.813323},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1465.305052},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1471.85303},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1490.894494},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1504.01441},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1497.042442},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1466.245364},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1450.020826},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1431.866889},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1435.544444}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1450.300746,"endRent":1435.544444,"change":-0.010174649665387281,"cagr":-0.010174649665387281},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1353.89255,"endRent":1435.544444,"change":0.060308991285903835,"cagr":0.01971188558871062},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1090.877428,"endRent":1435.544444,"change":0.3159539350189948,"cagr":0.05644802953634831}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04949923702833248,"annualizedVolatility":0.043018487299260666,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}