The key reading for the ZIP is a stalled asking-rent signal rather than a fresh acceleration. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP-level Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $1,283 per month, up just 0.1% on the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it describes the current ZIP asking market rather than lease transactions or a single property type. That near-flat latest comparison anchors the report: it is a measurement of pricing direction at the stated endpoint, not a forecast, valuation, or investment conclusion.
The backward record puts the pause in perspective. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 0.1% over one year, 2.2% over three years, and 4.5% over five years. Thus, the latest direction breaks from—not confirms—the stronger multiyear path. The series contains 64 observations with 100% coverage; its annualized monthly-return variability was 2.9% and its maximum drawdown was -1.3%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,962 for momentum, 1,519 for stability, and 2,033 for balanced history, where a lower rank places higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Modest measured variability and drawdown support some confidence that one rent snapshot is not merely a large historical swing, but the latest near-flat result limits confidence in extrapolating the older growth pace.
Geographic and source distinctions explain why the rent figures do not line up as one series. The five-digit label 83402 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $989 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That is a distinct, backward-looking household measure: the current asking index is 29.7% higher, a gap that does not establish change for a matched unit. In contrast, HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,305, and it is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; ZIP ZORI is 1.7% below it. The modelled monthly estimates, not measured bedroom rents, scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder: $1,017 for a studio, $1,077 for one bedroom, $1,283 for two bedrooms, $1,784 for three bedrooms, and $2,152 for four bedrooms.
Affordability is best read as a household-level arithmetic and survey comparison. An annualized current asking-rent outlay produces a $51,320 required-income figure under a 30% screen, compared with a $74,517 ACS median household income. The arithmetic implies a 20.7% asking-rent-to-income ratio; this screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter universe, 4,035 renter-occupied homes are counted and 1,527—or 37.8%—report gross-rent burden at or above that threshold. The household measure includes different rent and utility experiences and cannot prove that any particular vacancy, lease, or prospective tenant carries that burden. It nevertheless shows why the ZIP asking index belongs beside the household survey distribution rather than as a universal affordability outcome.
Stock data describes an aggregate ZCTA housing base, not a listing-level availability count. It records 12,246 housing units and 1,081 vacant units, an 8.8% vacancy rate, with renters accounting for 36.1% of occupied homes. The unit count, occupancy, renter share, and vacancy measure the housing stock’s aggregate composition rather than the terms of an individual rental. Aggregate vacancies comprise several uses and statuses; they do not show that a particular unit is empty, rentable, or competitively priced. Likewise, renter share is a population composition measure, not a measure of ZORI’s rental-type mix. Read with the survey’s margin-of-error context, these counts organize the housing base but do not turn vacancy or burden into proof about a given property.
Wider rental context is higher: Idaho Falls city context has an asking-rent value of about $1,383, Bonneville County context has $1,415, and the Idaho Falls, ID metro context has $1,414; each is a wider-geography context measure rather than an estimate of ZIP rent. The ZIP current asking index sits below those three reference values, but the comparison does not reconcile their rental mix, aggregation, or timing with the ZIP index. City, county, and metro values therefore frame scale only. They should not replace the direct ZIP history, the ACS ZCTA gross-rent survey, HUD’s administrative standard, or the modelled ZIP bedroom ladder.
Resale evidence offers a separate tension, not rental corroboration. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a $367,367 median sold price, down 0.6% year over year, alongside 80 homes sold and 20 median days on market. It records inventory of 96 homes, up 5.2%, and 3.6 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.4%, and the reported sold-above-list share was nil. Those are resale liquidity, price, and marketing signals only—not rental transactions, rent comparables, or property economics. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.19%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The reported resale price decline and flat recent asking-rent change jointly challenge a simple growth reading, while recorded resale turnover remains a separate observation and does not alter the household affordability arithmetic.
Every result has a scope and timing limit. ZORI cannot establish signed-lease rent; ACS cannot identify a current available unit; HUD cannot establish market asking rent; and Redfin resale data cannot supply rental transaction evidence. The data cannot infer a unit’s utilities, eligibility, exact vacancy, net operating costs, property condition, or future movements. Relevant property-level checks are the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, lease length, included utilities, current vacancy status, physical condition, list price, and recorded sale terms. Those checks test whether a particular address resembles the source universe rather than treating any aggregate number as a property fact. The closing question is whether an address’s current asking rent and bedroom configuration align with its lease terms and listing or sale evidence after the distinct survey, administrative, index, and resale scopes are kept separate.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent reading is nearly unchanged from the same month a year earlier, while the three- and five-year same-month records remain positive. The complete series, annualized variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks establish a measured history but do not convert cooling into a forward view. The salient signal is a break between recent direction and the longer growth path.","title":"The latest rent direction broke from the prior path"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD cannot be read as interchangeable rent datasets. ZORI is a blended current asking index, ACS captures occupied renter households with selected utilities in gross rent, and HUD supplies an administrative bedroom standard. The bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZORI with HUD’s local ladder; they are useful internal estimates, not measured rents for bedrooms or buildings.","title":"The rent sources measure different populations and purposes"},{"body":"The income comparison is a standardized arithmetic screen, while the ACS burden share describes surveyed renter households, not applicants or individual leases. The aggregate unit, occupancy, renter-share, and vacancy measures describe the matched ZCTA’s housing base. They cannot establish whether one dwelling is available, what its utilities cost, or whether a particular household is rent burdened.","title":"Affordability and vacancy are aggregate screens"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale record shows price, volume, market time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior for for-sale transactions. It is not rental-comp evidence. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is deliberately only a cross-source screening ratio. The resale price easing alongside flat recent rent growth challenges a simplified growth narrative, while recorded sales activity remains a distinct liquidity observation.","title":"Resale data challenges a simple growth narrative"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS gross rent includes selected utilities, and HUD standards are administrative; comparing them as interchangeable rents can create false precision.","Historical annualized changes, variability, drawdown, and ranks are retrospective measures ending at stated dates; a cooling endpoint cannot establish future rent direction, resale pricing, or operating outcomes.","Redfin’s sale data describes rolling ZIP resales, whereas ZORI describes asking rents; combining price and rent creates a screening ratio that excludes expenses, financing, taxes, condition, and transaction-specific terms.","A matched ZCTA is a statistical approximation to the Zillow ZIP label rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS margins of error mean household and vacancy counts should retain survey uncertainty."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a contemporary ZIP asking-rent index that blends rental types, whereas ACS reports a median from occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. The difference reflects distinct populations, timing, and definitions. It does not demonstrate that the rent of an otherwise identical home increased by that amount.","q":"Why is the asking-rent index higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The bedroom amounts are derived by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP ZORI level. They preserve relative bedroom scaling from that administrative schedule, but they are not observed asking-rent samples for studios, one-bedroom homes, or larger units. A listing may differ because its attributes and lease terms differ.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for local apartments or houses?"},{"a":"The required-income figure simply divides annualized asking rent by the stated share of income. It is not a tenant-screening policy, a judgment about affordability for any household, or evidence about qualification. The ACS burden statistic is separate survey evidence for occupied renter homes and cannot identify the burden of one household.","q":"Does the 30% required-income screen determine whether a household qualifies?"},{"a":"Redfin’s direct resale observation tracks completed for-sale activity in the ZIP over its rolling period. Median sale price, days on market, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes do not identify rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by sale price creates a descriptive cross-source screen without expenses, financing, property condition, or income verification.","q":"Can the rent-to-price screening ratio be interpreted as a property return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":985.647666},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1008.183381},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1021.768473},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1032.156552},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1049.352624},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1084.247449},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1101.59958},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1115.980532},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1111.892891},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1137.043734},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1150.601063},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1154.531312},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1142.812802},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1157.432879},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1174.797943},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1188.692269},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1194.39653},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1180.326795},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1195.695962},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1190.520975},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1199.75465},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1198.900594},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1199.600331},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1207.5682},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1209.614209},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1207.688311},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1207.027427},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1202.762705},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1206.45977},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1208.275657},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1198.640472},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1203.936227},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1199.514795},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1202.592726},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1212.589808},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1230.901507},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1243.825623},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1237.181765},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1228.330097},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1234.123828},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1235.429656},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1253.07611},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1255.892787},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1257.093494},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1262.114011},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1268.761295},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1273.84051},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1264.912352},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1257.471503},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1265.938284},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1278.093157},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1281.755448},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1284.413507},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1278.442137},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1283.743599},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1286.796019},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1288.920735},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1286.793893},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1282.265207},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1282.898039},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1286.687881},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1287.294979},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1285.400623},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1283.196078}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1281.755448,"endRent":1283.196078,"change":0.0011239507522655678,"cagr":0.0011239507522655678},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1202.762705,"endRent":1283.196078,"change":0.0668738502329933,"cagr":0.02181205837594269},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1032.156552,"endRent":1283.196078,"change":0.24321845897656047,"cagr":0.04450251482535528}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01285012281482556,"annualizedVolatility":0.029443081981549372,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}