At the June 2026 Zillow endpoint, 83605 is the Zillow ZIP market identifier and its ZORI is $1,503 per month, while sitting below each wider context rent measure. For wider context only, the Caldwell city context rent is $1,728.75, the Canyon County context rent is $1,673, and the Boise City, ID metro context rent is $1,874. Those city, county, and metro measures are benchmarks rather than substitutes for the ZIP index, so they locate the ZIP within broader geographies without describing a specific property. The local signal is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted asking price, lease transaction, or bedroom-specific market average.
The history gives the current snapshot a directional frame rather than a forecast. Exact same-month ZORI change was 5.7% over 1 year, compared with annualized 3.0% over 3 years and 5.0% over 5 years. The recent rise therefore confirms the longer positive path but is faster than both longer comparison rates, fitting an accelerating recent pattern. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.5%, maximum drawdown was -1.7%, and coverage was 98.5%; together, the limited measured swing and nearly complete history support more confidence in continuity than a sparse, volatile series would, while leaving any individual listing uncertain. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 581 for momentum, 676 for stability, and 228 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. They are backward-looking measurements, not investment recommendations or forecasts.
The separate ACS universe provides an occupied-home lens. The same label also matches a Census ZCTA, a statistical area that is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,124 with a $69 90% margin of error; gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current Zillow ZORI is 33.7% above that figure, a gap that should not be read as a contradiction because one series is a survey median of occupied rental homes and the other is a typical asking-rent index. The same ACS ZCTA places median household income at $68,427, useful context but not a household-level affordability test.
The arithmetic screen sharpens the affordability tension without deciding eligibility. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the current monthly ZORI yields $60,120 in annual required income. Annualizing the current ZORI instead produces an asking-rent-to-median-income ratio of 26.4%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports 1,874 of an estimated 4,226 renter households paying at or above that threshold, a 44.3% burdened share. The burden result reflects surveyed households and survey uncertainty, so it cannot establish the cost pressure, rent, or income of a particular apartment, home, landlord, or prospective tenant.
For bedroom planning, the local HUD ladder provides a scaling device rather than direct rent observations. FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard—not asking rent. Scaling the ZIP ZORI to the local HUD bedroom ladder, anchored on its two-bedroom standard, produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,063 for a studio, $1,254 for one bedroom, $1,503 for two bedrooms, $2,105 for three bedrooms, and $2,517 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; they inherit the ZIP-level ZORI and HUD ladder assumptions and do not show a unit’s condition, utility arrangement, availability, concessions, or lease terms.
The ACS housing picture provides a distinct stock-and-vacancy lens. The matched ZCTA has 14,391 housing units, with 682 vacant, for a 4.7% vacancy rate. Single-family structures make up most of that stock, while 247 vacant units are classified as for rent. Renter-occupied homes account for a 30.8% share of occupied housing. These survey stock and vacancy measures do not measure advertised availability or prove that a particular listed unit is empty, rentable, suitable, or priced near ZORI. They are best interpreted with the lower ZIP asking-rent index and the higher city, county, and metro context rents, not as evidence that supply causes the observed rent pattern.
Decision use depends on keeping the lenses separate. ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rent across blended rental types; ACS summarizes occupied renter homes after a multi-year survey period and selected utilities; HUD supplies an administrative bedroom ladder; wider geographies are context only. The historical series describes what was measured through its endpoint, not future rent, vacancies, returns, or investment performance. Before comparing a property with these benchmarks, verify its exact asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease length, concessions, availability date, fees, deposit requirements, and whether its address actually falls within the relevant market geography. Do the property’s own terms align with the source-specific benchmark being used, rather than with a number drawn from another evidence universe?
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP ZORI of $1,503 coincides with a 5.7% exact same-month increase over the latest year. That pace exceeds the annualized three-year and five-year changes of 3.0% and 5.0%. Recent direction is therefore faster while still positive over each measured horizon. This is a backward-looking pattern, not evidence that the same pace will continue.","title":"Recent pace exceeds both longer annualized rates"},{"body":"Caldwell city, Canyon County, and Boise City metro context rents are each above the ZIP ZORI, but they are wider-geography context measures rather than replacements for the ZIP result. They identify a cross-scope level difference without showing why it exists. None of those figures supplies a property-level rent quote or establishes the terms available at a particular address in 83605.","title":"Wider context is higher, but not interchangeable"},{"body":"The $60,120 annual income produced by the 30% screen is an arithmetic conversion of the ZIP ZORI, not advice or a qualification rule. The ZCTA median household income is $68,427, while ACS estimates 44.3% of renter households spend at least 30% of income toward rent. A ZIP-level median and a separate surveyed burden share can coexist without determining any prospective tenant’s ability to pay.","title":"Income screen and burden are separate lenses"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are never measured bedroom rents, and HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. ACS vacancy data likewise describe survey stock, not listings. Validate the property’s bedroom count, asking rent, utilities, fees, lease terms, concessions, availability, and address before making a benchmark comparison.","title":"Bedroom and vacancy figures require listing verification"}],"risks":["The current ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it cannot verify a listing’s bedroom count, condition, concessions, utilities, fees, or executed lease rent.","The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical reporting area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS five-year results are estimates with margins of error and may not perfectly represent current ZIP listing conditions.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards, while displayed bedroom figures are modelled from the ZIP index. They may not capture a property’s quality, utilities, fees, concessions, availability, or lease structure.","The 4.7% vacancy rate and 44.3% rent-burden share are aggregate ACS estimates. Neither proves that a particular unit is vacant, affordable, rentable, or representative of the ZIP."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the stated endpoint. It is not a signed-lease median, a tenant-paid rent average, or a measured bedroom-specific quote. Use it as a ZIP-wide reference only after comparing the actual property’s stated terms, included utilities, and availability.","q":"What does the current Zillow number represent?"},{"a":"No. The history reports a 5.7% exact same-month increase over a year, alongside 3.0% and 5.0% annualized readings over three and five years. Those measurements show a faster recent positive pace relative to the longer record. Volatility, drawdown, coverage, and national discovery ranks remain descriptive of past observations, not predictions or investment guidance.","q":"Does the recent increase mean rents will keep rising?"},{"a":"The ACS figure is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA, and gross rent includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a current ZIP-level asking-rent index across blended rental types. Different populations, timing, and utility treatment mean neither measure replaces the other.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent not interchangeable with Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates obtained by scaling ZIP ZORI with HUD’s local bedroom ladder, and HUD is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. The burden share and vacancy rate are aggregate ACS estimates. None validates a particular listing. Confirm actual asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, fees, concessions, deposit, lease term, availability, and geography.","q":"Can the bedroom figures, burden rate, or vacancy rate validate a particular unit?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1107.109558},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1123.123473},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1143.668529},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1168.739749},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1176.28585},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1204.33083},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1212.651998},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1247.654515},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1269.579398},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1284.875298},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1315.805801},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1312.382021},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1320.598364},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1326.988192},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1329.044495},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1348.559342},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1344.118084},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1355.498997},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1352.861799},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1364.027905},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1369.03971},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1352.857228},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1345.649447},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1347.846316},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1364.920208},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1368.842036},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1374.169167},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1375.375491},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1371.881064},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1376.339191},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1379.520719},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1383.100504},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1374.448426},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1372.505692},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1373.524034},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1377.73993},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1377.306666},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1375.907705},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1381.457846},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1384.886868},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1394.137268},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1384.99493},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1381.205292},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1385.658154},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1400.605097},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1415.66385},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1417.616238},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1422.572972},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1427.341333},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1431.741983},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1423.545735},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1421.864348},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1424.452774},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1435.07834},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1444.994512},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1446.292812},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1446.698841},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1448.57417},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1457.437323},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1461.935454},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1466.261688},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1474.821603},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1490.313491},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1502.981481}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":0.9846153846153847,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1421.864348,"endRent":1502.981481,"change":0.05704983960959398,"cagr":0.05704983960959398},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1375.375491,"endRent":1502.981481,"change":0.09277901986403791,"cagr":0.030016344310987986},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1176.28585,"endRent":1502.981481,"change":0.27773489836675336,"cagr":0.05023902375454692}},"maxDrawdown":-0.017085160371279495,"annualizedVolatility":0.024928802309440685,"consecutiveReturnCount":62}}