ZIP 83616 starts with a rental measure that is rising, while its supporting evidence comes from several noninterchangeable universes. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is $2,101 per month and is above the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a median of existing occupied leases, a utility-inclusive survey value, or a measured quote for a given bedroom count. That distinction frames the following comparisons.
Bedroom detail is a modelled extension rather than a separate rental survey. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,485 for a studio, $1,753 for one bedroom, $2,101 for two, $2,943 for three, and $3,519 for four. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The underlying local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,655; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Thus, the model preserves HUD’s relative bedroom steps while anchoring its level to Zillow’s blended index. It should not be read as evidence that an available unit at any size is offered at those amounts.
The matched Census ZCTA presents a different population: its 2024 ACS five-year survey covers occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities. Its median gross rent is $1,759, making the current Zillow asking-rent index 19.4% higher, a gap consistent with the sources measuring different things rather than a direct contradiction. The ACS median household income is $125,203. Arithmetic at the structural 30% screen converts the monthly index to $84,040 in annual required income and places the index at 20.1% of the reported median income. That screen is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence of any household’s actual budget.
Wider geography puts the asking-rent index in a narrow city alignment but above broader benchmarks: Eagle city context reports $2,103.90, Ada County context reports $1,926, and Boise City, ID metro context reports $1,874. These are city, county, and metro context values, not ZIP rental observations. The household burden evidence remains an ACS outcome measure: 1,144 of 2,105 occupied renter households, or 54.3%, report paying at least the structural threshold toward gross rent. That share complicates a simple reading of the ZIP-wide income screen, because a median-income arithmetic comparison and reported renter burdens answer different questions. It neither proves a prospective household is burdened nor establishes terms for a particular lease.
The ZCTA’s housing composition helps delimit how much weight to place on a blended index. ACS counts 14,314 housing units with a 5.3% overall vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes constitute 15.5% of occupied units, while 87.6% of all units are single-family structures. These counts describe a stock with renters as a smaller occupancy segment, not a set of currently comparable listings. Vacant units span for-rent, for-sale, and seasonal classifications, so aggregate vacancy cannot show that any specific home is available, rentable, suitable, or subject to a particular rent. It also cannot convert a ZCTA stock count into an active Zillow sample.
The direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history through the stated endpoint confirms an upward longer path but shows why one monthly snapshot deserves tempered confidence. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualize to 5.1% over 1 year, 3.9% over 3 years, and 2.8% over 5 years; the faster recent pace confirms, rather than breaks from, the longer rising path. Yet annualized monthly-return variability is 3.7% and maximum drawdown was -3.6%, consistent with the high-variability category. The history has 100% coverage. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 459 for momentum, 2,433 for stability, and 1,184 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale evidence creates a separate tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation at the June endpoint reports an $844,809 median sold price, up 2.4% year over year, with 303 homes sold and a 50-day median marketing time. It records 335 homes of inventory and 3.4 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals show a 98.9% average sale-to-list ratio and 11.9% sold above list. These measures describe direct ZIP resale liquidity and pricing signals only; they are not rental transactions, leasing liquidity, or rental comparables. The values must remain in the for-sale/resale universe even when set beside an asking-rent index.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals 2.98%. It is only a cross-source screening ratio: the numerator is an asking-rent index and the denominator is a resale median, so it is not a measure of property-level economics. The rising recent ZORI path can look firmer in its own series while the price denominator leaves this separate screen; that tension challenges a unified reading of rent history, income arithmetic, and resale evidence. Different dates, definitions, survey margins, and the ZIP–ZCTA match further limit direct comparison. A property-level review would need the actual asking amount, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease term, concessions, availability date, and comparable sale records, plus confirmation of condition and transaction timing. Which current property records show that a specific unit or sale truly aligns with these area-level measures?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June endpoint, ZIP ZORI is $2,101 and the matched ACS five-year ZCTA median gross rent is $1,759. The 19.4% gap is not a direct pricing comparison: ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, while ACS measures occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Evaluate the difference as a source-scope distinction before treating it as a change in a unit’s quoted rent.","title":"Asking-rent measure sits above occupied-home survey"},{"body":"Same-month annualized rent change increases from 2.8% on the five-year view to 3.9% over three years and 5.1% over one year. This aligns the recent move with, rather than against, the longer observed climb. However, 3.7% annualized return variability, a -3.6% drawdown, and a weak stability discovery rank make the current level less definitive than a low-variability series would.","title":"Recent rent direction is faster but less stable"},{"body":"The $84,040 figure is the arithmetic income screen associated with the $2,101 monthly asking-rent index at 30%, not a qualification rule. In the ACS survey, 54.3% of occupied renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. A 15.5% renter share and 5.3% overall vacancy describe area-level occupancy and stock; they do not establish availability or affordability for any address.","title":"Income screen and reported renter burden answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP rolling-three-month resale observation reports a $844,809 median sold price, 303 homes sold, 50 days on market, and 3.4 months of supply. Its sale-to-list readings belong to for-sale activity, not rental transactions. Annualized ZORI divided by the resale median is a 2.98% cross-source screening ratio only, leaving a source-defined tension between asking-rent momentum and the price used in the resale denominator.","title":"Resale observations temper a unified rent-and-price reading"}],"risks":["The Zillow asking-rent index, ACS gross-rent survey, and HUD bedroom standard have different populations, timing, utility treatment, and purposes. Substituting one for another can misstate the rent of an individual unit.","ACS ZCTA results are five-year survey estimates with margins of error, and a ZCTA is not a USPS delivery ZIP. Neither renter counts nor vacancy rates establish a currently rentable, available, or comparable property.","Although the historical series has complete coverage, its high-variability designation and recorded maximum drawdown mean positive trailing changes should not be converted into a forecast, stable lease expectation, or investment conclusion.","Redfin resale data are a rolling ZIP for-sale observation. Inventory, marketing time, and sale-to-list indicators cannot reveal lease concessions, utility costs, property condition, financing terms, operating expenses, or rental transaction liquidity."],"qa":[{"a":"The $84,040 amount annualizes the $2,101 monthly Zillow index and applies the 30% screen. It is a transparent arithmetic comparison with the $125,203 ACS median household income. It is not financial advice, a landlord policy, an applicant qualification standard, or a finding about any particular household’s ability to pay.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen calculate?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates that use Zillow ZORI as the level and the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder for relative bedroom steps. Because HUD is an administrative standard and ZORI blends asking rents across rental types, the results are not measured rents for actual studio through four-bedroom units.","q":"What are the bedroom figures in this report?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s figures are a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. Median sold price, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures describe for-sale activity and resale liquidity. They are not rental comparables, lease transactions, or evidence of cash flow, utility treatment, tenant demand, or a property’s available rent.","q":"Do the Redfin metrics measure the rental market?"},{"a":"The shared five-digit label allows a Zillow ZIP market identifier to be matched with a Census ZCTA for this report, but they retain different scopes. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. The match provides area-level context; it does not mean every postal address, listing, or renter record uses identical boundaries.","q":"How do ZIP and ZCTA geographies relate here?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1651.912321},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1668.285114},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1676.284069},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1699.26696},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1767.671677},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1833.63089},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1877.600961},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1876.875201},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1864.867247},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1821.664842},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1822.933053},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1810.709877},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1845.010931},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1841.523744},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1868.636174},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1885.09248},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1890.087118},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1862.854307},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1860.033246},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1869.965343},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1888.228061},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1910.354834},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1901.698852},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1893.101815},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1871.10039},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1896.596411},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1910.63604},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1909.39449},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1895.00485},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1876.159864},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1874.472493},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1868.686473},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1874.622932},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1893.201092},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1923.723475},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1931.08483},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1929.2043},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1933.260671},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1941.47505},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1947.363163},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1934.271762},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1966.240734},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1958.698165},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1970.834302},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1973.819942},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1985.645767},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1986.933219},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1993.232771},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2020.656032},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2009.805789},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1983.12712},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1966.376844},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1987.002145},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1999.095735},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2014.566871},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2016.682877},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2019.305},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2009.798369},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2008.233029},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2015.767427},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2014.231922},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2031.224871},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2060.964613},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2089.198863},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2101.804626},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2101.489177}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1999.095735,"endRent":2101.489177,"change":0.051219879172019755,"cagr":0.051219879172019755},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1876.159864,"endRent":2101.489177,"change":0.12010133961590808,"cagr":0.038530141173078736},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1833.63089,"endRent":2101.489177,"change":0.14608081073503287,"cagr":0.027644845445415678}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03562582539602788,"annualizedVolatility":0.03718412281162997,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}