For ZIP 83646, the immediate decision question is how to frame a current market-wide rent signal without treating it as the price of a specific available home. Zillow’s Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $2,338 in June 2026, after a 3.4% year-over-year increase. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it provides a current ZIP market reference rather than a lease quote, a utility-inclusive payment, or evidence that every bedroom size follows the same price. The useful comparison is therefore between distinct measures: a current asking-rent index, a survey measure of occupied renter homes, and an administrative benchmark—each answering a different decision question.
Measurement choice is central here. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,892. This is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not a current asking-rent series. Zillow’s $2,338 index is $446, or 23.6%, higher, a difference that describes measure and timing rather than a conversion from one universe to the other. Separately, the FY2026 two-bedroom HUD FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,655. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and the ZIP index is 41.3% above that standard; the gap does not establish a market overcharge or a likely contract rent.
The income and renter evidence adds a separate household lens. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $102,861; it describes all households in the survey geography, not a renter-income median. A $93,520 annual income at the 30% screen is arithmetic based on the ZIP index, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. That screen equals 27.3% of the reported median household income. Renters occupied 5,335 homes, representing 19.8% of occupied homes. Of the renter-household burden observations, 2,422 met or exceeded that threshold, or 45.4%. This observed ACS burden describes aggregated households and cannot prove the payment stress, eligibility, or budget of a particular renter or unit.
The bedroom view is deliberately constructed, rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,653 for a studio, $1,951 for one bedroom, $2,338 for two bedrooms, $3,275 for three bedrooms, and $3,916 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The two-bedroom figure equals the overall ZIP index because the scaling uses that local ladder as its anchor. The $1,324 step from the one- to three-bedroom model, a 67.9% increase, reflects the ladder’s relative spacing. It compares only the model’s internal size pattern and cannot infer a listing’s condition, utilities, term, or availability.
Housing stock gives composition, not a count of suitable vacancies. The ACS ZCTA has 27,957 housing units, including 1,001 vacant units, for a 3.6% overall vacancy rate. Within the reported vacant inventory, 248 units are classified for rent and 388 for sale; seasonal and other vacancy categories are not interchangeable with a rental listing. The structure tabulation lists 25,381 single-family units and 586 units in its large-multifamily category. Those counts describe the ZCTA’s reported stock mix, but they do not establish the physical attributes, asking price, lease terms, or current availability of any unit. In particular, a vacancy classification cannot demonstrate that a specific home can be rented or will fit a household.
The wider comparisons establish direction but are only context. In the supplied context, Meridian city’s rent is $2,065, Ada County’s rent is $1,926, and the Boise City, ID metro’s rent is $1,874. Each named scope is broader context rather than a substitute for ZIP evidence, and the ZIP index is above all supplied figures. Meridian city’s renter share is 25.4% and Ada County’s renter share is 29.2%, both above the ZIP’s reported share. For vacancy, the ZIP rate lies between the Meridian city rate of 3.1% and Ada County rate of 4.2%. Different geography, housing mix, source timing, and series definitions limit any conclusion beyond these scoped comparisons.
Several limits frame a property-level use. This five-digit label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used here. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s current asking-rent index, ACS’s multiyear occupied-home survey, and HUD’s administrative bedroom standard use different populations, definitions, and dates; ACS estimates also carry sampling uncertainty. A property-level interpretation requires confirmation of the advertised base rent, rental type and bedroom count, included and separately billed utilities, lease duration, deposits and recurring fees, availability date, and the address’s applicable ZIP. These checks connect the aggregate evidence to listing terms without converting an index, a burden share, or a vacancy count into a fact about that property.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow places the June 2026 ZIP rent index at $2,338. The matched ACS ZCTA reports a $1,892 median gross rent in its 2024 five-year survey, including selected utilities and occupied renter homes. The $446 difference is informative as a separation of methodology and timing, not an adjustment factor. HUD’s two-bedroom administrative standard is another distinct reference.","title":"Current index is not survey rent"},{"body":"Bedroom figures were generated by scaling the overall ZIP index with the supplied HUD bedroom ladder. The outputs range from $1,653 for a studio to $3,916 for four bedrooms, with $2,338 at two bedrooms. These are modelled estimates rather than measurements from completed leases or current listings. Their primary use is showing the model’s relative bedroom pattern.","title":"Bedroom values are model outputs"},{"body":"Median household income of $102,861 is an all-household ZCTA statistic, while the burden measure covers renter households. The arithmetic 30% screen yields $93,520 using the ZIP index. Separately, ACS estimates that 45.4% of renter households meet or exceed the threshold. Neither result establishes what a particular household can pay or qualify for.","title":"Income and burden describe different populations"},{"body":"The ZCTA’s 3.6% vacancy rate includes distinct classifications: for rent, for sale, seasonal, and other types. It is therefore not a live count of rentable options. The supplied structure tabulation is dominated by single-family units, yet stock composition does not disclose condition, availability, listing price, fees, or lease terms for a particular address.","title":"Vacancy is classification data, not availability"}],"risks":["The Zillow index, ACS gross-rent statistic, and HUD bedroom standard have different populations, timing, and definitions. Treating their dollar gaps as a correction, premium, or lease-price forecast would exceed the supplied evidence.","The Census ZCTA match supports statistical comparison, but it does not reproduce the boundaries or delivery practices of a USPS ZIP. Address-level geography and eligibility rules can differ from the aggregate label.","Bedroom outputs inherit the HUD ladder’s relative spacing and are not observed rents. A listed home may have different utilities, quality, term, fees, or availability than the model assumes.","Vacancy and rent-burden values are aggregate classifications and household outcomes. They cannot verify that an individual home is rentable, that an applicant is burdened, or that a property will accept a given household."],"qa":[{"a":"The $2,338 figure is Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI for the ZIP market identifier. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a quoted asking price for a particular address, a signed lease amount, or a bedroom-specific observed rent.","q":"What does the current ZIP rent figure represent?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks a typical observed asking-rent index. The ACS figure uses the matched ZCTA rather than a listing feed. Their $446 difference should be read as a distinction between evidence universes and dates, not as an error or conversion factor.","q":"Why does ACS median gross rent differ from ZORI?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures scale the ZIP ZORI using the supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. They are modelled monthly estimates, with the two-bedroom result aligned to the overall index by construction. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so the outputs do not measure a listing or lease.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates created?"},{"a":"Confirm the address falls within the relevant ZIP delivery area, then compare its advertised base rent, bedroom count, utilities, availability date, lease term, deposits, and recurring fees with the aggregate measures. Also distinguish owner or agent qualification rules from the report’s arithmetic income screen, which is not an eligibility determination.","q":"What should be checked before using the report for a property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1154.177591},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1194.519971},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1194.892855},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1180.528045},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1191.695385},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1204.558881},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1219.132011},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1203.004679},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1197.575561},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1214.090427},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1234.172123},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1245.741133},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1238.340811},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1245.18485},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1257.761968},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1273.72755},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1279.638535},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1287.414354},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1289.209667},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1301.671277},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1301.234548},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1301.027851},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1310.099335},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1318.020738},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1320.656274},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1319.912632},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1338.746773},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1348.998743},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1351.087867},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1350.287951},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1365.295375},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1384.082613},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1408.131203},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1417.051742},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1420.303563},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1417.498971},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1428.136371},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1429.874083},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1423.09827},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1429.156348},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1452.772007},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1470.546912},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1472.901755},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1471.952726},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1481.455328},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1506.013774},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1522.602243},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1528.44663},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1522.876349},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1540.645038},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1553.58089},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1560.438523},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1558.747984},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1563.29902},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1573.162483},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1582.46256},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1583.331456},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1579.385966},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1582.797554},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1598.26475},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1617.573811},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1614.852881},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1613.915283},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1606.4076},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1601.929403},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1622.521526},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1649.354439},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1681.166898},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1752.430246},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1797.005556},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1819.948063},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1853.005236},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1868.864424},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1905.321571},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1940.431413},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2000.027347},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2035.657822},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2060.120346},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2072.24662},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2077.259621},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2083.198251},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2086.424392},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2097.127112},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2118.190863},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2142.10211},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2164.132907},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2174.154582},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2176.668623},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2177.008281},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2180.057377},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2185.653439},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2199.649414},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2208.423512},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2211.598747},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2206.628678},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2181.127629},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2168.329123},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2161.112223},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2160.108131},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2147.267904},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2140.644953},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2142.574405},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2151.074098},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2145.344214},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2141.791277},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2134.436616},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2151.624863},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2173.503516},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2199.977244},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2204.025192},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2206.722746},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2197.30237},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2195.004904},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2200.701351},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2215.828108},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2227.374779},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2219.246034},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2223.489228},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2231.537792},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2236.304073},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2230.803425},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2226.101473},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2234.888204},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2261.935105},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2277.619469},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2282.812706},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2277.255488},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2280.038599},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2298.046554},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2309.889348},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2308.10639},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2310.785503},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2316.985717},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2332.95596},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2338.235879},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2337.90181}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":136,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":0.9855072463768116,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2261.935105,"endRent":2337.90181,"change":0.03358482957007736,"cagr":0.03358482957007736},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2147.267904,"endRent":2337.90181,"change":0.08877974920822918,"cagr":0.028758282832398674},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2000.027347,"endRent":2337.90181,"change":0.16893492156834977,"cagr":0.031711013486580564}},"maxDrawdown":-0.034889751635403754,"annualizedVolatility":0.02686696885383367,"consecutiveReturnCount":133}}