ZIP 83686 functions here as both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA label. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI was $1,635 per month, up 4.72% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific rent, transaction record, or utility-inclusive household measure. The opening signal is therefore a current asking-rent benchmark for this ZIP label, with the scope distinction essential before comparing it with surveys, administrative standards, or resale figures.
Backward-looking ZORI history supports a stable-growth reading but not a forecast. Exact same-month changes were 4.72% over 1 year, 2.98% annualized across 3 years, and 4.75% annualized across 5 years. The most recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path and is faster than the intermediate path; it does not show a recent break from the broader record. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.87%, while maximum drawdown was -2.52%; this modest variability lends more confidence to a single current index snapshot than a highly erratic series would, although it does not eliminate measurement or timing risk. Coverage was 100%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 694 for momentum, 1,376 for stability, and 651 for balanced history, where lower rank is higher. These are retrospective measurements, not investment recommendations.
Source differences explain why the current ZORI should not be treated as the ACS rent median. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA, median gross rent was $1,361; it describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The Zillow asking index is 20.1% above that survey median, a comparison across different timing, populations, and rent concepts rather than a contradiction. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates, in order from studio through four bedrooms, of $1,156, $1,364, $1,635, $2,290, and $2,739. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
At a 30% rent-to-income screen, monthly ZORI arithmetic produces $65,400 in required annual income, below the ZCTA’s $86,518 median household income. That makes the index equal to 22.7% of that median income when annualized, but the screen is arithmetic only: it is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. Survey burden gives a needed counterweight. An estimated 47.8% of renter households paid at least that threshold in the ACS universe; it cannot establish the burden of any particular unit or household. The ZCTA’s housing stock was predominantly single-family, while its 3.6% vacancy rate included 255 units classified vacant for rent. Those are area-wide survey conditions, not proof that a given rental is available or vacant.
The local ZIP ask sits almost level with the Nampa city context rent of $1,626.46, below the Canyon County context rent of $1,673, and below the Boise City, ID metro context rent of $1,874. Each is a wider-area context value, not a substitute for this ZIP’s evidence; city, county, and metro aggregates can have different rental mixes and geographies. The city comparison is especially close, whereas the broader county and metro gaps support retaining the ZIP-level asking index as the primary current-rent reference. These comparisons establish relative scope only and do not identify the rent of a specific property, neighborhood, or lease.
Direct ZIP resale evidence presents a different, for-sale picture. At the stated endpoint, the direct rolling-three-month ZIP Redfin resale observation reported a median sold price of $449,393, 1.21% higher year over year, with 333 homes sold and a median 42 days on market. There were 520 active listings and inventory of 201 homes, while months of supply stood at 1.8. Average sale-to-list was 99.73%, 20.08% of homes sold above list, and 36.24% went off market within two weeks. These are direct ZIP resale observations of price, turnover, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. They are not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence about operating economics for a rental property.
Putting the sources together produces a useful tension rather than a unified property verdict. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is a 4.37% cross-source screening ratio only. It does not include expenses, financing, taxes, property condition, or unit-specific information. Rent history’s current strength and low-variability path are stronger than a flat reading, yet resale price growth was comparatively slower even as supply and sale-to-list signals pointed to a relatively constrained resale setting. Thus, the resale evidence challenges any assumption that rent momentum and for-sale price movement are moving uniformly; it neither confirms property economics nor resolves the survey burden result. This is a cross-universe tension, not causation.
Limits matter as much as the headline. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities, HUD is an administrative bedroom standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation; their timestamps, units, and populations do not merge into a single property valuation. Before applying these aggregates to a property, verify the live asking rent, bedroom configuration, utility responsibility, lease term, concessions, availability date, and whether the listing is actually within the relevant ZIP geography. For a resale comparison, confirm the subject’s recent sale evidence, listing status, and marketing history rather than treating ZIP medians as a property appraisal. Do the unit’s current terms and source scope match the benchmark being used?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent signal is materially above the matched ZCTA’s survey gross-rent median, but the gap is not a same-universe rent comparison. ZORI covers a blended asking-rent index; ACS describes occupied renter homes and selected utilities. Treat the difference as a scope and timing distinction first, then investigate property-level utility treatment, lease terms, and bedroom mix.","title":"Current ask and survey rent are not substitutes"},{"body":"Same-month rent growth recently matched the longer-run pace and exceeded the intermediate annualized pace. Low annualized monthly-return variability and a shallow recorded maximum drawdown make the current ZORI reading less dependent on a single unusual monthly move than a volatile series would be. The history is complete over the reported observation span, but it remains backward-looking rather than predictive.","title":"History is steady, not predictive"},{"body":"Annualizing the ZIP asking index at the 30% screen lands below median household income, while nearly half of surveyed renter households were burdened at that threshold. The findings are not inconsistent: one is a benchmark arithmetic comparison with a median household, and the other is a renter-household survey distribution. Neither establishes affordability for a specified household or unit.","title":"Income screen and burden describe different conditions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling resale record shows a for-sale market with limited reported supply and near-list sales, but price growth trailed the rent index’s current growth. That contrast challenges a uniform-market reading. The annualized rent-to-sale-price quotient is only a cross-source screen; resale signals do not transform it into a property-level performance measure.","title":"Resale liquidity complicates the rent signal"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin observe different populations, timing, and definitions, so converting any one into a property-specific rent, value, or affordability conclusion risks a false comparison.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical approximation rather than a USPS delivery boundary, and its multi-year survey estimates plus margins of error may not describe a current available unit.","Area-wide vacancy and burden figures classify survey households and housing units; they cannot verify a particular unit’s availability, utility package, rent burden, condition, or lease terms.","Redfin’s rolling resale measures capture for-sale activity only, and annualizing an asking-rent index against a median sold price omits costs and property differences that affect economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched statistical ZCTA and includes selected utilities. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical asking-rent index blended across rental types. Different timing, populations, and definitions mean the gap is informative context, not proof that either source is wrong.","q":"Why does the ACS rent median differ from ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD’s ladder is an administrative standard rather than asking-rent evidence. Therefore, the estimates are useful for proportional screening only and should not replace unit-level listings or leases.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured rents?"},{"a":"Redfin adds direct ZIP evidence on sold prices, turnover, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior in the for-sale market. It can test whether resale signals move alongside rent signals, but it is not a rental transaction source and cannot provide rental comparables or property operating economics.","q":"What does the resale data add?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure simply annualizes the asking-rent index and applies a fixed share of income. Median household income and survey rent burden describe different aggregates, so neither figure identifies whether a particular household can afford, qualifies for, or experiences the rent at a particular unit.","q":"Does the required-income screen establish what an applicant can afford?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1165.540895},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1196.876638},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1217.888662},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1223.326515},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1235.721934},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1268.788652},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1296.496849},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1325.882599},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1360.839865},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1369.096132},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1405.657391},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1425.405546},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1447.123564},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1450.168893},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1451.017356},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1475.036976},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1489.753922},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1500.661832},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1508.089462},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1500.702283},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1485.370038},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1478.659354},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1470.154771},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1477.668877},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1477.719784},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1482.305528},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1486.240915},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1491.201248},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1497.220906},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1501.153235},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1497.065896},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1498.603007},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1497.66493},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1501.619671},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1497.441558},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1498.379801},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1489.15234},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1497.851392},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1497.762738},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1501.987701},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1498.156639},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1499.785418},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1505.660939},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1504.120836},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1514.002703},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1528.75612},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1535.528048},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1538.998478},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1531.971023},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1536.498484},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1543.747418},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1551.56129},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1563.786996},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1558.872087},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1561.281957},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1571.553323},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1575.621493},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1572.929907},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1579.943639},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1584.509285},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1603.88015},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1605.438791},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1609.651901},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1610.770018},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1612.94367},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1626.790945},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1634.988889}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1561.281957,"endRent":1634.988889,"change":0.04720923832465718,"cagr":0.04720923832465718},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1497.065896,"endRent":1634.988889,"change":0.09212887246213763,"cagr":0.029812034843465396},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1296.496849,"endRent":1634.988889,"change":0.2610820383104533,"cagr":0.047487063231260285}},"maxDrawdown":-0.025154138369014034,"annualizedVolatility":0.028712732622305417,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}