At $1,741 per month in June 2026, Zillow ZORI places the current ZIP-level asking-rent marker on a still-positive but slower track. The exact same-month record shows a 1.03% rise over one year, a 1.35% annualized rise over three years, and a 4.18% annualized rise over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms rather than breaks from the longer upward path, although it is well below the five-year pace. The history has 104 observations with 100% coverage, annualized monthly-return variability of 2.63%, and a maximum drawdown of -2.26%. This limited observed variation warrants more confidence in the index as a current market snapshot than a series experiencing abrupt movement, while still not setting the rent of an available property. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 938 for stability, 1,910 for momentum, and 1,601 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ZORI index and ACS rent are intentionally different evidence universes. The 84015 label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,512 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That survey figure is 15.1% below the current index. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS records a survey median for occupied renter homes. Timing, utility treatment, tenant status, and survey uncertainty prevent the difference from showing a universal increase for incumbent renters or a directly comparable advertised apartment price.
Bedroom framing requires another separate universe. The local estimates are modelled monthly figures of $1,303 for a studio, $1,382 for one bedroom, $1,741 for two bedrooms, $2,333 for three bedrooms, and $2,818 for four bedrooms. They scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder; they are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,614. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so it provides the scaling pattern and a policy benchmark, not proof that a market listing will follow any modelled amount.
The income lens adds a further boundary. At the current index, an annual income of $69,640 is the arithmetic amount that would put monthly rent at 30% of income. It is not advice and it is not an applicant qualification rule. The matching ZCTA's ACS five-year median household income is $95,519, subject to its reported survey margin of error; annualizing the index produces a mechanical 21.9% rent-to-income ratio against that all-household median. It does not reveal actual renter income. Separately, ACS estimates 2,478 of 5,503 renter-occupied homes, or 45.0%, carry gross-rent burdens at or above 30%. Those counts carry ACS survey uncertainty. This aggregate burden cannot establish the finances or affordability of a particular household or unit.
ACS stock counts explain why vacancy needs careful handling. The matched ZCTA has 23,485 housing units: 22,482 occupied and 1,003 vacant, translating to an all-unit vacancy rate of 4.3%. Of the vacant units, 416 are classified as for rent. The stock tally includes both owner and renter housing, rather than an active inventory of comparable leases. These are broad ACS housing and vacancy classifications, not a count of current advertisements. In particular, the all-unit vacancy rate and the vacant-for-rent count cannot prove that a particular advertised home is open, priced at the index, or available under stated terms.
In wider geography, the Clearfield city context rent is $1,645, the Davis County context rent is $1,734, and the Ogden-Clearfield, UT metro context rent is $1,614. The ZIP index is higher than all three, yet those figures remain citywide, countywide, and metropolitan context rather than a replacement for the ZIP measure. Their renter-share, vacancy, gross-rent, and HUD comparisons also operate in their own geographic or administrative scopes. They can frame the level of the ZIP index, but cannot reclassify it as a city, county, or metro asking-rent observation or establish terms for a specific property.
The packet ends where property details begin. The evidence does not identify the address, condition, floor plan, lease length, included utilities, mandatory charges, concessions, timing of availability, or actual signed rent for any home. It also cannot convert the historical path into a forecast. For a property-level comparison, the concrete checks are the exact address and ZIP delivery designation, bedroom count, advertised base rent, all included and mandatory charges, utility responsibility, availability date, lease duration, and any concession expiration. Compare that written quote with the appropriate modelled bedroom estimate while recognizing that the HUD-based ladder is not a quote. The income arithmetic and aggregate burden result must remain separate from a manager's actual screening policy. Does the particular property's written all-in offer, on its stated date and terms, support the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI is $1,741 in June 2026. Same-month gains remain positive at 1.03% over one year, 1.35% annualized over three years, and 4.18% annualized over five years. That is a continuation of the past path, not a reversal, but the most recent pace is slower. The full record and modest drawdown describe past behavior only.","title":"Slower positive history"},{"body":"The 15.1% difference between current ZORI and ACS median gross rent is not a mismatch to resolve by choosing one number. ZORI represents observed asking rents across blended rental types, while ACS describes occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. Their geography match is ZCTA-based, which remains a statistical approximation rather than USPS delivery geography.","title":"Index-survey gap requires source discipline"},{"body":"The HUD-scaled ladder produces modelled estimates from studio through four bedrooms. The two-bedroom estimate aligns with current ZIP ZORI, but that alignment is a modelling construction. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific benchmark and not asking rent. A listing can differ because the packet does not supply that property's attributes, quote date, or lease terms.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelling outputs"},{"body":"ACS describes aggregate stock, vacancy, and rent burden, but none establishes conditions for a particular home. The vacant-for-rent count may contain units with differing terms, timing, or comparability. Likewise, the share spending at least 30% of income on gross rent is an area-level household statistic, not evidence of a prospective renter's income, eligibility, or actual all-in cost.","title":"Aggregate conditions are not listing evidence"}],"risks":["The current Zillow figure is an index rather than a unit quote. Its blend of rental types and observed asking-rent design may not match a property's bedroom count, condition, charges, or availability.","ACS results are five-year survey estimates for a ZCTA and include selected utilities in gross rent. Survey uncertainty, occupied-home status, and nonidentical USPS delivery geography limit direct comparison with an advertised listing.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values and the derived bedroom figures are administrative and modelled. They should not be read as measured bedroom rents, legal rent caps, likely concessions, or evidence that a landlord will accept a particular price.","Aggregate vacancy and burden measures cannot confirm that a unit is empty, affordable, or eligible for anyone. Availability dates, utility liability, mandatory fees, lease duration, and property screening rules require direct property documentation."],"qa":[{"a":"The evidence shows a positive same-month one-year movement, so recent direction continues the broader upward history rather than reversing it. However, the one-year pace is below the three- and five-year annualized measures. That describes deceleration within observed history; it does not supply a prediction of future rents, returns, or demand.","q":"What is the strongest reading of the recent rent trend?"},{"a":"They answer different questions. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across blended rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Different dates, populations, treatment of utilities, and survey uncertainty make a direct listing-price equivalence inappropriate.","q":"Why do Zillow and ACS show different rent levels?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly estimates generated by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The HUD FMR/SAFMR benchmark is an administrative standard, not asking rent. The figures organize a comparison by bedroom count but cannot document the asking rent, quality, or total charges of a specific unit.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents?"},{"a":"They are area-level context only. The vacancy rate summarizes classified units, while the burden statistic summarizes surveyed renter households; neither verifies availability or affordability for a particular property. The 30% income calculation is simple arithmetic based on the index, not financial advice or a landlord's qualification standard. Check the written quote and all stated terms directly.","q":"How should vacancy and income figures be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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