For 84047, the current Zillow ZORI is $1,505 per month, and the key tension is that its short path now runs opposite to its longer record. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is an index of asking-market conditions rather than a contract-rent quote for a particular home. At exact same-month marks, it declined 0.7% over 1 year, yet its annualized change was positive 0.8% over 3 years and 3.3% over 5 years. The latest negative year therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the preceding multi-year growth path. It describes backward-looking movement through the stated endpoint, not a projection of the next lease or an investment signal.
That break deserves caution because the history is classified as high variability rather than a smooth trend. The direct Zillow ZIP series contains 66 monthly observations and 65 consecutive monthly returns, with 100% coverage of its stated history window. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.6%, and the maximum drawdown was 5.2%, measurements that make a single current index reading less decisive than it might be in a steadier series. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,451 for momentum, 2,350 for stability, and 2,715 for the combined score; lower ranks are higher. These are reproducible discovery measures, not forecasts, performance grades, or investment recommendations.
The bedroom view is deliberately a modelling bridge, not a second rent survey. The supplied local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,494, placing the current ZIP ZORI 0.7% above that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard and is not asking rent. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,088 for a studio, $1,210 for one bedroom, $1,505 for two bedrooms, $2,015 for three bedrooms, and $2,391 for four bedrooms. Those are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; a listing can differ because the index and the HUD standard have separate purposes and universes.
Source definitions explain a separate apparent gap. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,587 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities; it is above the ZIP asking-rent index. It is not an alternative current asking-rent reading. The same survey gives median household income of $75,954. Annualizing the index and applying a 30% screen produces $60,200 of required income, and the index-to-income arithmetic is 23.8%. That screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. In the survey, 4,516 of 9,149 renter households were at or above the stated gross-rent burden threshold, a 49.4% area-level share; it neither describes every household nor proves the burden attached to a particular unit.
Housing counts add another distinction between an area inventory and an available listing. The matched ZCTA includes 756 vacant units, for a 4.4% vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes account for 56.2% of occupied homes, and the reported stock includes more single-family units than large multifamily units. These figures describe pooled households and units across the statistical area, with definitions that can differ from an online listing universe. In particular, the vacancy measure cannot establish availability, condition, price, concessions, or suitability for any specific home.
The surrounding comparisons place the ZIP reading in a wider frame without replacing it. For city-wide context, Midvale’s citywide context rent is $1,529; for county-wide context, Salt Lake County’s context rent is $1,639; and for metro-wide context, Salt Lake City, UT’s context rent is $1,638. All three are wider-context values, so the ZIP’s lower index should be read as a comparison across scopes rather than as proof that every subarea or rental type sits below every benchmark. The county and metro standards in the packet are also contextual; they do not convert an administrative standard into asking rent or alter the ZIP model.
Finally, the geography itself sets a boundary on interpretation: this identifier is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA label. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so a property’s mailing ZIP or service area may not map perfectly to these aggregates. The packet does not identify property-level asking prices, bedroom measurements, utilities, fees, concessions, lease terms, or actual vacancies. For a given listing, the concrete checks are its advertised total monthly charge, bedroom count, included utilities, recurring fees, availability date, lease terms, and the geographic identifier used by the listing. Which of those listing facts aligns with the appropriate area-level comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP ZORI is $1,505 per month after a 0.7% same-month decline over one year. Positive annualized changes over three and five years make the latest direction a break from the longer path. The history’s 3.6% annualized variability and 5.2% maximum drawdown mean that a single current index reading has limited stability as a stand-alone timing signal.","title":"Short-term retreat interrupts the longer record"},{"body":"HUD’s two-bedroom standard is an administrative benchmark, not asking rent. The supplied bedroom series scales the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder, yielding modelled monthly ZIP estimates rather than observed rents by bedroom. The match between the modelled two-bedroom estimate and the ZIP index reflects the construction method. It does not establish the asking rent, utilities, fees, or availability of any actual two-bedroom listing.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, while HUD is administrative"},{"body":"ACS reports a five-year median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. The area-level 30% income screen is simply annual-rent arithmetic against median household income. The renter burden share is a survey aggregate: it signals that many renter households exceed the threshold, but does not determine any applicant’s qualification or a unit’s affordability.","title":"ACS burden is not listing affordability"},{"body":"Vacancy and stock are aggregate descriptions. The ZCTA reports vacant units and a renter-majority occupancy mix, but neither measure verifies whether a particular advertised property is open or comparable. Citywide Midvale, countywide Salt Lake County, and metro-wide Salt Lake City comparisons provide context only. The ZIP identifier is matched to a Census ZCTA, which is statistical geography rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Vacancy and geography constrain interpretation"}],"risks":["The ZORI, ACS gross-rent median, and HUD standard cover different populations, timing, and definitions. Treating their gaps as errors or direct substitutes could misstate a listing comparison.","The high-variability history includes a recent decline and prior drawdown. A current index snapshot can move enough over time that it should not be presented as a guaranteed lease-price path.","Area vacancy figures categorize housing units, not a specific advertised apartment or house. They cannot confirm that a unit is available, affordable, comparable, or offered under the displayed terms.","The matched ZCTA is statistical and can differ from USPS delivery geography. Listing boundaries, bedroom count, utilities, recurring charges, concessions, and lease terms may all change the relevant comparison."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes and gross rent includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative benchmark. Differences can result from these scope and timing distinctions; none is a one-for-one substitute for a quoted listing rent.","q":"Why do the Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures differ?"},{"a":"The bedroom series does not come from observed ZIP bedroom transactions or a survey tabulation. It is calculated by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder. As a result, the figures are modelled monthly estimates intended to organize comparisons by bedroom size. They should never be read as measured bedroom rents, and they do not contain property condition, availability, utilities, fees, or lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"No. The history is explicitly backward-looking. Its one-year decline breaks from positive annualized three-year and five-year changes, but that pattern alone does not establish a future direction. Complete coverage and the published ranks improve traceability, while high variability and drawdown reduce confidence in treating the latest reading as a durable trend.","q":"Does the recent decline establish a future rent direction?"},{"a":"The packet supports only area-level comparisons. To evaluate a listing, identify the advertised monthly rent, bedroom count, included utilities, recurring fees, concession treatment, availability date, lease duration, and the listing’s geographic identifier. Then select the relevant comparison universe: asking index for asking-market context, ACS for surveyed occupied renters, or HUD for its administrative bedroom standard.","q":"What property-level facts are needed before comparing a listing?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1172.616265},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1177.725192},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1209.518098},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1247.249357},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1274.110853},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1277.445355},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1285.944289},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1311.897387},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1338.050547},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1358.508252},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1372.154538},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1401.358308},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1440.328381},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1459.040475},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1463.39606},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1465.911984},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1484.767719},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1513.703723},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1523.369215},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1530.817166},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1530.675282},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1524.154235},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1523.603159},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1526.574406},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1534.229108},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1538.333624},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1522.531087},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1501.513041},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1483.314959},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1470.035584},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1480.121632},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1478.318195},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1479.131317},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1496.009436},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1505.15141},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1481.79652},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1458.376098},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1469.586422},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1496.79072},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1512.458243},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1508.12827},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1516.282324},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1516.862547},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1508.845168},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1490.147042},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1487.66169},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1484.657853},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1506.477095},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1512.956381},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1520.365326},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1512.128889},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1517.075939},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1520.812471},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1515.395559},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1512.169615},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1520.102703},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1535.838648},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1532.411091},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1531.587671},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1525.210901},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1529.258562},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1516.827674},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1512.37661},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1504.356709},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1505.162992},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1505.114815}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1515.395559,"endRent":1505.114815,"change":-0.0067841983163685615,"cagr":-0.0067841983163685615},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1470.035584,"endRent":1505.114815,"change":0.02386284480580292,"cagr":0.00789183667838933},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1277.445355,"endRent":1505.114815,"change":0.17822246494449834,"cagr":0.03334527935216269}},"maxDrawdown":-0.051976713472655756,"annualizedVolatility":0.036263926301076756,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}