The main tension in this ZIP is modestly firmer asking-rent history alongside resale indicators that show a different, softer price-and-inventory pattern. In June 2026, Zillow ZIP ZORI was $1,551 per month, up 1.0% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market indicator rather than the asking price, lease terms, or utility bill for any one home. The increase is a current and backward-looking measurement, not a forecast, investment view, or evidence that every listing moved by the same amount. The resale measures discussed here are a separate transaction universe and are not rental comparables.
ZIP 84058 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context, the Orem city context rent is $1,520, while the Utah County context rent and Provo-Orem, UT metro context rent are each $1,847. The ZIP’s current ZORI sits slightly above the named city context and below the named county and metro contexts. These city, county, and metro values are contextual benchmarks, not substitutes for ZIP measurements or proof that their rental mixes match. The ZIP-level asking-rent index remains the anchor for bedroom modelling, whereas wider-area comparisons simply frame its position.
Source differences matter more than a small dollar gap. ACS 2024 five-year data for the matched ZCTA report a $1,413 median gross rent among occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities. That survey result is not the same universe as ZORI, and the June asking-rent index is 9.8% higher even before accounting for different reference periods and populations. Using the ACS-reported median household income, a 30% rent-to-income screen applied to the current index produces required annual income of $62,040; the index is 25.0% of the ZCTA median household income on this annualized arithmetic. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule, and neither source establishes what a given household will pay.
Bedroom-oriented figures require an additional boundary. The studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and four-bedroom amounts—$1,335, $1,344, $1,551, $2,158, and $2,602 per month—are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder. The local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,460. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, whether the ladder is ZIP SAFMR or county-derived. The equal ZIP-index and modelled two-bedroom figure is mechanical scaling, not a statement that an observed two-bedroom listing rents at that amount. Actual bedroom pricing can differ by features attached to an individual unit.
Backward-looking Zillow history supplies the main caution around the rent snapshot. It has 100% coverage across 67 observations and is categorized high variability. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 1.0% over one year, 0.2% over three years, and 3.9% over five years. The latest direction confirms that the longer path remained positive, but it breaks from the stronger five-year pace. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.5%, while maximum drawdown was 2.9%; together they support moderated confidence in one current reading rather than a stable-rent interpretation. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,155 for momentum, 2,259 for stability, and 2,555 for balanced results, with lower ranks higher. These measurements are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
ACS occupancy and burden evidence puts the arithmetic in a household and stock frame. The matched ZCTA vacancy rate was 5.2%, renters accounted for 57.9% of occupied homes, and the stock included 6,244 single-family units and 2,303 units in large multifamily structures. Among renter households, 44.2% reported housing costs at or above 30% of income. These are area-wide survey measures, not conditions in a particular building. An aggregate vacancy rate cannot prove that a particular unit is available, suitable, or priced at ZORI, and the burden share cannot establish affordability for an individual household or address. They instead describe the scale of renter occupancy, stock types, and reported cost pressure in the matched statistical area.
Direct ZIP resale liquidity is visible in Redfin’s rolling-three-month observation through June 30, 2026, which describes for-sale transactions rather than rental transactions. Median sold price was $529,880, down 0.4% year over year; 40 homes sold with median marketing time of 31 days. Inventory was 63 homes, up 29.5%, and months of supply were 4.8. Average sale to list was 98.9%, while 23.1% of sales closed above list. These metrics stay in the resale universe: they neither measure rental demand nor reset ZORI. Still, the small sale-price decline, larger inventory, and below-list average challenge any simple conclusion from the positive short-run rent change and income screen. Completed sales and marketing time show transaction activity, but they do not provide rental comps or property economics.
The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price is a 3.5% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield because it omits property-specific revenues, expenses, financing, and transaction details, and because its rent and sale inputs come from different measurement systems. Useful property-level checks would confirm a live listing’s asking rent, bedroom count, utility responsibility, lease term, concessions, condition, availability date, and whether sale records are comparable in property type and timing. They would also distinguish an advertised unit from the blended index and a closed resale from an active listing. What remains unresolved until those checks are made is whether a specific unit resembles the ZIP-level rent signal or the resale sample.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,551, a 1.0% year-over-year increase in a blended asking-rent index. It is not a lease quote. The matched ACS ZCTA’s five-year median gross rent is $1,413 and includes selected utilities, so the 9.8% difference joins distinct universes, populations, and reference periods.","title":"Rent snapshot and source boundary"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom modelled estimates range from $1,335 to $2,602 and use ZIP ZORI scaled by the local HUD ladder. The local two-bedroom HUD standard is $1,460. These are standardized reference points, but neither the HUD FMR/SAFMR standard nor the modelled ladder is measured asking rent for an actual bedroom type.","title":"Modelled bedroom reference, not observations"},{"body":"Same-month annualized ZORI growth was 1.0% over one year, 0.2% over three years, and 3.9% over five years. Full coverage and the documented history do not remove the high-variability designation: 3.5% annualized monthly-return variability and a 2.9% maximum drawdown warrant less confidence in a single current snapshot. The figures are retrospective, not predictive.","title":"Rent path has a confidence limit"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show a $529,880 median sold price, 40 sales, 31 median days on market, 63 homes of inventory, and 4.8 months of supply. That is transaction liquidity and pricing evidence for the for-sale market only. The 3.5% annualized-rent-to-price figure is a cross-source screen, not a cap rate or property yield.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a simple rent reading"}],"risks":["A blended asking-rent index can move differently from any active listing because unit size, utilities, lease structure, timing, condition, and concessions are not represented by one ZIP-wide snapshot.","The Census ZCTA is statistical rather than USPS delivery geography, and its five-year occupied-renter survey can differ in boundaries, timing, and utility treatment from Zillow ZIP ZORI.","The reported vacancy and rent-burden shares are aggregates. They cannot establish vacancy, rent, utility responsibility, qualification, or household cost pressure for a particular address or lease.","Resale price, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures come from direct ZIP for-sale transactions. They can frame cross-market tension but cannot supply rental comps, cap rates, expenses, or expected returns."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 figure is Zillow ZIP ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes the ZIP market at one point in time. It is neither the rent of a specific home nor a median gross-rent survey measure, and it does not include a stated unit’s lease or utility terms.","q":"What does the $1,551 rent figure represent?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes in matched ZCTA geography, and median gross rent includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP asking-rent index across rental types. Different source construction, time windows, geographies, and included costs mean their dollar levels should be compared cautiously rather than treated as interchangeable estimates.","q":"Why do ZORI and ACS median gross rent differ?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. The HUD FMR/SAFMR input is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Therefore the estimates create a consistent reference ladder but do not observe studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit leasing transactions.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents?"},{"a":"The Redfin series is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. Its sold-price, sales-count, marketing-time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures describe for-sale transactions, not rental transactions. It can reveal tension with the rent indicators, but it cannot establish rental demand, property operating costs, a cap rate, or a future result.","q":"What does the resale data say, and what does it not say?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1221.262603},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1216.292084},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1228.725985},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1221.781067},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1241.605169},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1256.51608},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1282.099487},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1324.783367},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1352.035161},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1380.566386},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1399.865431},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1410.216141},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1434.626679},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1432.111818},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1455.764876},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1468.79084},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1494.854035},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1511.171675},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1503.856769},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1489.871001},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1489.23144},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1516.750399},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1515.246777},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1535.252076},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1505.886926},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1536.280731},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1522.891902},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1537.469975},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1526.248889},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1529.371214},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1544.354611},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1545.821347},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1532.574924},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1517.014332},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1528.003208},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1538.692991},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1550.318012},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1549.412709},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1551.696579},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1557.74735},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1557.825529},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1545.566249},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1536.07206},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1526.091245},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1533.221766},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1535.518325},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1529.392073},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1512.498419},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1514.466797},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1514.491892},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1536.376952},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1517.120152},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1532.185901},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1523.107974},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1536.729252},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1549.506189},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1553.454114},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1556.068942},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1558.027058},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1564.11403},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1564.29769},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1560.742378},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1546.522753},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1556.565942},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1547.70327},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1559.922561},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1551.411111}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1536.729252,"endRent":1551.411111,"change":0.009553965983853052,"cagr":0.009553965983853052},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1544.354611,"endRent":1551.411111,"change":0.004569222605830703,"cagr":0.0015207603176397022},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1282.099487,"endRent":1551.411111,"change":0.21005516867506557,"cagr":0.03886959122781852}},"maxDrawdown":-0.029096396968854576,"annualizedVolatility":0.03518736144931587,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}