At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow's ZIP ZORI was $2,038 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and its same-month year-over-year movement was 1.01%. The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation recorded a $597,000 median sold price, up 2.05% year over year. Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing by that sold-price median produces a 4.10% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. This is the central tension: for-sale prices advanced faster than the latest asking-rent index. The five-digit label 84096 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The backward-looking Zillow history reports exact same-month annualized changes of 1.01% over one year, 0.73% over three years, and 2.87% over five years. The positive short-span result therefore confirms rather than breaks the longer upward direction, yet its pace is below the five-year measurement rather than accelerating. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.83%, and the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was -5.77%; those results make one current rent snapshot less definitive. Coverage was 98.6%. The transparent national discovery ranks were 2,055 for momentum, 1,301 for stability, and 1,961 for balanced performance among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower is higher. These are backward-looking measurements and discovery tools, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Scope explains why nearby-looking benchmarks cannot be substituted for the ZIP signal. For wider context only, the Herriman city-context asking-rent figure is $1,931, the Salt Lake County context asking-rent figure is $1,639, and the Salt Lake City, UT metro context asking-rent figure is $1,638; each belongs to a wider geography, not a ZIP estimate. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $2,072, with a reported sampling margin of error. That ACS measure surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. The ACS figure being slightly above ZORI neither establishes a current rent change nor constitutes a disagreement, because its tenant, time, utility, and survey universe differ. City, county, and metro figures remain comparison context, never replacements for ZIP evidence.
Bedroom detail should be read as a calibration exercise, not a rent survey. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,494. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the supplied local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,474 for a studio, $1,638 for one bedroom, $2,038 for two bedrooms, $2,728 for three bedrooms, and $3,238 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and should not be used as evidence that an advertised unit commands those amounts. The resulting scale is a relationship to an administrative standard rather than a market-comparable lease quote.
The income screen gives a different household-level frame. The 30% required-income screen derives $81,520 by annualizing the monthly ZORI. Compared with the ZCTA's $122,881 median household income, the implied asking-rent-to-income measure is 19.9%. This calculation is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports 2,111 of 4,627 renter households—45.6%—as spending 30% or more of income on rent; its reported sampling margins caution against treating that aggregate as a precise count. Neither this area-level burden share nor the income screen proves the cost or affordability of any particular unit.
Supply clues come from the ACS housing-stock universe rather than live listing availability. In the matched ZCTA, the vacancy rate is 3.63% and renters represent 21.4% of occupied households. The stock includes 18,729 single-family units and 1,377 units in large multifamily structures, while 230 vacant homes are classified as for rent. These aggregates describe a five-year survey area and do not identify the condition, lease-up status, pricing, or actual availability of a property. They also cannot tell whether an individual advertised home is vacant. The renter share gives area composition context, but it does not merge vacancy, burden, and asking-rent evidence into a unit-level conclusion.
The Redfin evidence describes the for-sale market rather than rental transactions. In its direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, 286 homes sold, median marketing time was 45 days, reported inventory was 375 homes, and months of supply were 4. Average sale-to-list was 99.44%, while 24.48% of homes sold above list. These are resale liquidity, pricing, inventory, and negotiation signals only; they do not describe leases, rental demand, or property economics. Read with the price change already reported, they challenge any inference that the latest positive rent move means rent growth is accelerating. Conversely, the resale data do not negate the positive rent history. The two sources use different transactions and timing, and neither explains why the other moved.
Every source here has limits: ZORI is an index, ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is a standard, and Redfin covers completed resale activity over a rolling three-month period. Before attaching these aggregates to a home, check the advertised monthly asking rent, bedroom count, property type, availability date, lease length, included and excluded utilities, deposits and recurring fees, parking or other charges, and whether the listing is still active. For a purchase-side comparison, also verify the actual sale or list record, condition, financing terms, taxes, insurance, association charges, and repair needs; none are in this packet. Do the specific unit's documented terms resemble the all-types asking-rent index enough for these ZIP-level screens to be informative?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP ZORI was $2,038 and up 1.01% from the same month a year earlier. Redfin's ZIP resale median was $597,000, up 2.05% in its rolling-three-month observation. The price movement therefore exceeds the latest rent-index movement, a cross-universe tension rather than evidence of particular property economics.","title":"Latest resale price growth exceeds rent-index growth"},{"body":"The reported one-, three-, and five-year history is positive, but the one-year pace is below the five-year pace. Annualized variability and the maximum drawdown demonstrate that the current index reading has changed over time. The transparent discovery ranks place the measures among history-eligible ZIPs; they are not forecasts, quality ratings, or investment recommendations.","title":"The rent path is positive but not accelerating"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent and ZORI are close in level but cannot be treated as duplicates. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; ZORI summarizes current observed asking rents across rental types. HUD's bedroom ladder is an administrative standard used only to model bedroom estimates, not a record of measured asking rents.","title":"Asking rent, ACS rent, and HUD standards serve different purposes"},{"body":"The arithmetic income threshold associated with ZORI is below the area's median household income, yet ACS reports a substantial share of renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent. Housing stock, vacant-for-rent counts, and renter composition remain area aggregates, so none identifies the affordability or availability of a particular listing.","title":"Area-level income screen and renter burden point in different directions"}],"risks":["ZORI is an all-types asking-rent index, so its level can differ from a specific home's bedroom count, property type, included utilities, lease term, fees, condition, and availability date.","ACS burden, renter, stock, and vacancy figures are five-year ZCTA survey aggregates with margins of error; they cannot establish that any particular unit is vacant, affordable, or occupied.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards rather than market asking rents; scaling them produces modelled estimates that may diverge from actual advertised bedroom rents.","The Redfin resale series is a rolling-three-month for-sale observation. Sale prices, sale-to-list outcomes, inventory, and marketing time do not describe rental transactions, property expenses, financing, or net economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ACS figure belongs to the matched ZCTA, which is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Different timing, unit populations, and utility treatment mean the two levels are complementary context rather than interchangeable rents.","q":"Why do ZORI and ACS median gross rent differ in meaning?"},{"a":"No. HUD supplies a bedroom-specific administrative FMR/SAFMR ladder, not measured lease asking rents. The report scales the ZIP-wide ZORI by that supplied local ladder to create modelled estimates from studio through four bedrooms. The outputs are calibration estimates, so an actual listing still needs separate verification of its advertised rent, utilities, fees, property type, and lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"The required-income figure simply annualizes the monthly ZIP ZORI and divides it by 30%. It is a uniform arithmetic screen for comparing an area-level rent index with area-level income, not affordability advice, an underwriting judgment, or an applicant qualification rule. Household circumstances and actual lease terms are outside the packet.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"The Redfin figures are direct ZIP rolling-three-month resale observations, covering transactions, sale prices, marketing time, listing inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. They are useful for describing the for-sale market's observed conditions. They cannot be converted into rental comps, a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data be used beside rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1636.390443},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1652.996613},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1648.383711},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1676.721751},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1702.049848},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1720.100048},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1707.180958},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1704.461531},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1731.751867},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1769.539018},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1792.927599},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1792.247178},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1799.444918},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1897.624339},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1937.187437},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1952.778726},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1946.585132},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1991.005036},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2014.672497},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2033.634455},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2031.090051},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2050.866321},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2073.061159},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2074.730509},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2040.418072},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2030.09413},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2013.413982},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2017.709338},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2019.735079},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2004.506783},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1990.658934},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1985.8013},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1994.309704},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1999.496721},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1999.757247},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1993.903351},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2001.927826},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1972.649367},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1974.05867},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1954.923243},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1988.601277},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1992.402293},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1998.613967},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1986.647931},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1975.668873},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1981.020079},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1985.49311},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1993.742913},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1995.863191},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2020.067821},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2017.18375},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2030.71483},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2011.032994},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2012.917062},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2010.802309},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2018.369837},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2017.912681},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2009.026618},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2004.023576},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2002.629843},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2004.95199},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2003.750851},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2010.518872},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2011.748872},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2013.901009},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2016.6021},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2022.024271},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2027.960463},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2038.25812}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":69,"firstPeriod":"2020-09-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":70,"coverageRatio":0.9857142857142858,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2017.912681,"endRent":2038.25812,"change":0.010082417931938314,"cagr":0.010082417931938314},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1994.309704,"endRent":2038.25812,"change":0.022036906259771172,"cagr":0.007292328106779156},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1769.539018,"endRent":2038.25812,"change":0.1518582519325946,"cagr":0.028678842683669048}},"maxDrawdown":-0.05774594121033383,"annualizedVolatility":0.028331364112252646,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}