At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP 84107’s Zillow ZORI stands at $1,400. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted rent for a single unit. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The 1-year exact same-month change is -3.1%, the 3-year exact-same-month annualized change is -1.7%, and the 5-year annualized change is +2.3%. Recent contraction therefore breaks from the longer positive path. Annualized monthly-return volatility is 3.7%, maximum drawdown is -6.3%, and coverage is 100%. The high-variability designation warrants less confidence in one date-stamped snapshot. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,861 for momentum, 2,377 for stability, and 2,853 for balanced performance; lower ranks are stronger. These history measures are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The current index should not be merged with other rent universes. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 5-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,445 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It is a survey median, whereas ZORI is an asking-rent index. The supplied FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom figure is $1,494. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, whether sourced as a ZIP SAFMR or a county-derived local ladder. Those scope and utility differences prevent either ACS or HUD from serving as a like-for-like replacement for the June ZORI reading; the gaps should not be interpreted as a property discount or premium.
For size orientation, the supplied local HUD ladder scales the ZIP ZORI into modelled monthly estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. The estimate is $1,013 for a studio, $1,125 for a one-bedroom, $1,874 for a three-bedroom, and $2,225 for a four-bedroom; the two-bedroom estimate is set at the ZIP index baseline. The construction preserves HUD’s local bedroom steps, but it does not observe listings by bedroom, establish a unit’s utility package, or control for lease terms. The results should thus be used only as a transparent modelled ladder around the blended index, not as evidence that a particular bedroom category is available at a stated price.
Affordability signals are mixed. At the current index, a 30% required-income screen produces $56,000 in annual income. That is arithmetic only: it is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $72,108, and the asking-rent-to-income calculation is 23.3%; this all-household benchmark does not describe renter income or any household’s actual budget. In the ACS renter sample, 4,049 of 9,158 renter households report gross-rent burdens of 30% or more, a 44.2% share. Gross rent includes selected utilities, unlike a typical asking-rent index. Burden is an aggregate respondent outcome, so it cannot prove that any particular unit is affordable or that an individual renter will face that burden.
Housing counts show why aggregate conditions need careful reading. The ZCTA has 17,676 housing units, with 16,669 occupied and 1,007 vacant, for a 5.7% overall vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes account for 54.9% of occupied homes, and the stock spans both single-family and large multifamily structures. The vacancy inventory includes units classified as for rent, but a vacancy category is not a live listing feed, a measure of unit quality, or proof that a suitable property is immediately available. Similarly, renter concentration describes the occupied stock, not the rent, condition, or turnover of an individual home.
Wider geography reinforces that the ZIP reading should be localized. Murray city-context rent is $1,461, Salt Lake County context rent is $1,639, and Salt Lake City, UT metro-context rent is $1,638; all are broader-context measures rather than substitutes for the ZIP index. The comparison places the current ZIP level below each named city, county, and metro figure, but it does not establish why they differ or transfer their household mix, vacancy, HUD standard, or listing composition into this ZIP. City, county, and metro data are context only, while the ZIP/ZCTA evidence retains its own source scope.
The key limitation is not a missing calculation but a mismatch between aggregate benchmarks and a real offering. Property-level review should confirm the address’s ZIP assignment, listing date, advertised versus effective rent after concessions, bedroom count, lease length, utility responsibilities, furnishing status, availability, and any restrictions disclosed by the property. It should also separate a landlord’s current ask from an occupied-home survey median and from HUD’s administrative standard. None of the history, vacancy, burden, or context figures identifies a specific unit’s terms. Does the listing’s documented rent package and unit description actually match the benchmark being used?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI is $1,400 after a 3.1% same-month decline over one year and a 1.7% annualized decline over three years, even though the five-year annualized change remains +2.3%. The short and medium readings thus break from, rather than confirm, the longer path. Complete historical coverage supports measurement continuity, but the high-variability classification and 6.3% maximum drawdown argue against treating a single reading as durable.","title":"The recent path conflicts with the long view"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent and HUD FMR/SAFMR are not alternate readings of the same market price. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities; HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Zillow ZORI instead summarizes typical observed asking rents across rental types. The ZCTA match enables geographic comparison, but a ZCTA remains a statistical area rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Scope explains apparent rent disagreement"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are generated by applying the supplied local HUD bedroom relationships to the ZIP ZORI. They are modelled monthly estimates, not measured bedroom rents, and should not be read as an inventory count or a set of listing quotes. Their principal use is transparent size orientation around a blended index; advertised bedroom, utility, and lease terms still require property-level confirmation.","title":"The bedroom ladder is a model, not bedroom evidence"},{"body":"The ZCTA has a renter-majority occupied base and a meaningful share of renter households with gross-rent burden at or above the screen. It also records vacant homes, including units classified for rent. These aggregate measures can frame supply and household pressure, but neither establishes that a particular unit is available, affordable, suitable, or representative of the broader ZIP.","title":"Aggregate renter pressure does not identify a unit"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so individual advertised rents can diverge because the index does not specify a property’s condition, utilities, concessions, lease duration, or furnishing status.","The ACS ZCTA is a five-year survey geography rather than a USPS ZIP delivery boundary, and its gross-rent and burden statistics describe occupied renter households rather than current listings.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards. Using their ladder produces modelled estimates, but it cannot verify actual bedroom rents, vacancy, unit features, or eligibility in a specific property.","High historical variability and the recent negative path make a date-specific index less stable as a standalone reference; history records prior movements and does not predict future rents or outcomes."],"qa":[{"a":"They are drawn from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is an observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the ZIP identifier. ACS is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard by bedroom. Geographic matching does not make their populations, utility treatment, or intended uses interchangeable.","q":"Why are the Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures different?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled monthly estimates built by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder. They preserve the standard’s relative studio-through-four-bedroom steps, but no packet evidence observes asking rents separately by bedroom. They therefore cannot verify a listing’s price, bedroom designation, utility inclusion, or actual market availability.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed local rents?"},{"a":"It simply divides the annualized ZORI by the 30% threshold and yields the stated income figure. It is arithmetic, not affordability advice, an underwriting test, or an applicant qualification rule. The median-household-income comparison uses all households, while ACS burden describes surveyed renter households; neither result determines one renter’s finances or a specific unit’s affordability.","q":"What does the required-income screen establish?"},{"a":"Use the report as an aggregate benchmark, then verify the listing’s address-to-ZIP assignment, timestamp, gross versus asking rent, concessions, bedroom count, lease term, utilities, furnishing status, availability, and restrictions. Review the current listing documentation separately from ACS occupied-home results and HUD standards. Historical ZORI movement can contextualize a date, but it cannot forecast the listing’s future rent.","q":"How should a reader use this ZIP report for a specific listing?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1127.336515},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1135.624956},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1152.355122},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1186.502089},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1201.988015},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1223.575806},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1246.585182},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1277.49017},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1314.866689},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1350.915846},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1361.165668},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1382.530266},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1414.503659},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1439.526654},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1428.177646},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1407.147433},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1413.522248},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1432.881112},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1447.32777},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1468.929314},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1466.981477},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1461.316748},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1447.88251},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1455.378055},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1476.917928},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1486.964926},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1494.373332},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1482.361048},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1477.28387},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1471.256027},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1472.523727},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1469.333402},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1467.174402},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1462.820421},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1463.350019},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1453.815994},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1429.412268},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1422.039179},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1421.305919},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1444.81473},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1444.960785},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1456.476743},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1451.635368},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1450.072654},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1448.664433},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1446.176599},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1447.837651},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1443.223132},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1444.578336},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1444.314084},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1454.55096},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1456.957696},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1467.146976},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1452.047371},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1444.479547},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1442.36869},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1442.969462},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1445.402103},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1443.873496},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1446.663784},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1448.022563},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1444.372647},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1430.433085},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1414.287568},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1400.98499},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1400.162797},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1399.521186}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1444.479547,"endRent":1399.521186,"change":-0.031124262779194556,"cagr":-0.031124262779194556},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1472.523727,"endRent":1399.521186,"change":-0.04957647857310221,"cagr":-0.016806364401114604},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1246.585182,"endRent":1399.521186,"change":0.12268395791022635,"cagr":0.02341435279198323}},"maxDrawdown":-0.06347285779856249,"annualizedVolatility":0.03659135516667192,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}