The sharpest tension is between the ZIP’s for-sale observation and its still-positive asking-rent path. At the June 2026 endpoint, Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reported a median sold price of $373,216, down 10.1% year over year. It logged 34 homes sold, a median 33 days on market, an inventory count of 57 homes, and 5.1 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 98.9%, and 9.1% of sales closed above list. These are direct ZIP resale liquidity and pricing signals in the for-sale universe, not rental transactions, rental comps, or property economics. The sale-price decline therefore challenges a uniform strength reading from the rent path, but the two sources do not establish a cause between resale and rent movements.
On the rental side, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,929 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The broader values remain context only: Salt Lake City city-scope rent is $1,629, Salt Lake County county-scope rent is $1,639, and Salt Lake City, UT metro-scope rent is $1,638. The ZIP index is therefore above each wider-area benchmark, but those benchmarks do not establish the asking rent of every building, lease, or bedroom category within the ZIP. Zillow’s measure concerns advertised rents rather than payments in occupied homes, making it a current market-positioning measure rather than a record of tenant costs already in place.
Geography and source definitions prevent a false one-to-one comparison. The five-digit label 84111 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,350, with a $73 margin of error, and represents occupied renter homes while including selected utilities. Zillow’s current reading is 42.9% higher, but the figures have different populations, timing, and construction. By contrast, the FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,494, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; ZORI is 29.1% higher. Neither ACS nor HUD is a current advertised-rent comp.
The affordability boundary is equally important but is only arithmetic. At a 30% gross-income screen, the current ZIP ZORI corresponds to $77,160 in annual household income. The matched ACS ZCTA median household income is $52,952, placing the asking-rent-to-income screen at 43.7% of that median income. This does not state what a landlord will require, offer household advice, or determine any applicant’s qualification. In the ACS renter-household universe, 3,109 of 6,208 renter households, or 50.1%, reported gross-rent burden of at least 30%. That burden statistic documents survey-era occupied households, includes survey uncertainty, and cannot prove the affordability or payment burden of a particular available unit.
The local HUD ladder provides a scaling device, not measured rent observations. Applying its bedroom relationships to the ZIP ZORI yields modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,395 for a studio, $1,551 for one bedroom, $1,929 for two bedrooms, $2,582 for three bedrooms, and $3,065 for four bedrooms. These figures preserve the index’s two-bedroom anchor and scale it with local HUD relationships; they do not report observed medians, quoted listings, or transaction rents for those sizes. The ladder is useful for disciplined size-to-size screening only. A particular unit can depart from it because the index is blended across rental types and the HUD standard is administrative.
The backward-looking rent path is positive but uneven, which tempers confidence in one current rent snapshot. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualize to 1.09% over one year, 0.69% over three years, and 2.64% over five years. The latest gain therefore confirms a longer positive path and sits above the three-year pace, yet it remains below the five-year pace. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.19%, and the maximum drawdown was negative 4.06%, underscoring movement around the trend. Coverage is 100% across the available observation sequence. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower rank is higher, are 2,042 for momentum, 1,908 for stability, and 2,335 for the balanced measure; they are discovery labels, not forecasts, ratings, or investment recommendations.
Stock and vacancy context further limits what can be inferred from a single rent index. The matched ACS ZCTA reports 8,956 housing units, an 11.6% vacancy rate, and a 78.4% renter share, while 6,291 units are in large multifamily structures and 1,530 are single-family units. Of the vacant stock, 430 units are classified as for rent. These counts describe a five-year survey geography and broad period, not today’s advertised availability or the condition, rent, lease terms, and bedroom count of any one apartment. Vacancy must not be read as proof that a specific unit is obtainable, just as the burden share must not be read as proof about any specific tenant.
The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price is a 6.2% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, because it combines an asking-rent index with a resale median and contains no property operating results. Timing also differs across June Zillow, ACS, HUD, history, and Redfin evidence, while ZIP, ZCTA, city, county, and metro boundaries serve different scopes. Property-level checks should verify actual bedrooms, current asking terms, included utilities, lease conditions, availability, and whether any sale comparison matches the property’s type, condition, and sale timing. Does the specific property still match the bounded screen after those separate-source checks?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,929 in ZIP 84111, compared with wider-context rents of $1,629 for Salt Lake City city scope, $1,639 for Salt Lake County county scope, and $1,638 for the Salt Lake City metro scope. ZORI is a blended, typical asking-rent index across rental types, so the gap identifies different aggregate benchmarks rather than a rent quote for a particular building or unit.","title":"Asking-rent index exceeds wider context"},{"body":"The ACS 2024 five-year matched ZCTA median gross rent of $1,350 represents occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It is not the same universe as Zillow asking rent. The $77,160 income implied by the 30% screen exceeds the ZCTA median household income of $52,952, while 50.1% of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burden at or above that arithmetic boundary.","title":"Income screen and renter burden show a gap"},{"body":"Same-month annualized ZORI changes were 1.09% for one year, 0.69% for three years, and 2.64% for five years. Variability of 3.19% and a negative 4.06% maximum drawdown support a cautious reading of one observation. These backward-looking measurements indicate an overall positive path with uneven movement; they do not provide an outlook or investment recommendation.","title":"Rent history is positive but not smooth"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $373,216 median sale price, a 10.1% annual decline, 5.1 months of supply, and a 98.9% average sale-to-list result. This is direct for-sale evidence, not rental evidence. The 6.2% annualized-ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and excludes operating costs, financing, condition, and property-level income.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a simple rent-strength story"}],"risks":["Zillow’s current index, ACS’s five-year occupied-household survey, and HUD’s administrative standard differ in timing, universe, and treatment of utilities, so their dollar gaps cannot be treated as direct rent comparables.","The 30% income figure annualizes one ZIP-level index, while ACS income and burden are survey aggregates; it cannot determine affordability, qualification, or payment outcomes for an individual household.","The ZCTA vacancy rate and for-rent vacancy count are not a live listing feed. They do not establish that a specific building has an available unit at the modelled or indexed rent.","Redfin’s resale metrics cover for-sale transactions in a rolling three-month ZIP observation. Median sale price and the screening ratio omit property-level operating costs, financing, condition, and rent-roll information."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The two measures also differ in timing and geography because the ACS figure is for a matched ZCTA, not necessarily the USPS ZIP delivery area.","q":"Why should Zillow ZORI not be substituted for ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve the ZORI two-bedroom anchor but do not measure observed listings, lease transactions, or median rents for each bedroom count. Individual units can differ from the modelled estimates.","q":"Are the studio-through-four-bedroom figures actual observed rents?"},{"a":"The history shows positive same-month annualized changes over the one-, three-, and five-year windows, so the recent direction does not break from the broader positive path. However, monthly-return variability and the recorded drawdown show that the series has not moved smoothly. A single current ZORI reading therefore warrants less confidence than a stable, uninterrupted trend would support.","q":"What does the Zillow history say about current rent direction and confidence?"},{"a":"No. It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price from Redfin’s resale observation. It combines two different source universes and contains no operating expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, or unit-specific rent. It must not be interpreted as a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"Does the 6.2% rent-to-price screen describe a property return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1432.729904},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1441.537959},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1455.904005},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1480.291059},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1498.960645},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1501.629202},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1511.72741},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1514.646122},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1535.986676},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1530.163515},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1518.08252},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1518.647145},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1547.383848},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1542.754115},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1535.509048},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1508.376915},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1533.589717},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1525.3161},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1544.29989},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1548.351082},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1547.909388},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1563.717291},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1568.677092},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1601.993917},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1604.728071},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1584.597922},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1575.713539},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1620.964309},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1658.543878},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1691.621601},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1676.669943},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1693.371068},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1716.012108},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1755.003958},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1800.003534},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1789.750716},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1794.268933},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1810.827073},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1866.164899},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1877.07788},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1883.638673},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1890.92815},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1918.987057},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1929.856411},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1935.545716},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1928.184576},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1930.786793},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1939.223131},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1951.992225},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1950.968365},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1930.84831},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1914.05635},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1907.972565},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1899.172713},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1896.603877},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1889.453579},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1901.796303},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1895.009233},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1887.796046},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1888.039768},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1880.816536},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1882.24162},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1888.21957},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1913.212356},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1921.268339},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1906.341226},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1906.088634},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1903.775044},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1907.215117},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1894.755684},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1901.656089},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1896.056267},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1888.306348},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1872.748084},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1883.498415},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1886.258568},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1887.56118},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1888.713931},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1895.67789},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1907.894725},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1902.124603},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1918.740004},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1918.592929},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1924.415762},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1933.707713},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1946.875243},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1940.166577},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1931.395638},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1929.657899},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1938.981373},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1934.786445},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1928.70827}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":92,"firstPeriod":"2018-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":92,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1907.894725,"endRent":1928.70827,"change":0.01090916848150525,"cagr":0.01090916848150525},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1889.453579,"endRent":1928.70827,"change":0.020775684269933592,"cagr":0.006877815296545853},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1693.371068,"endRent":1928.70827,"change":0.13897556563190339,"cagr":0.026367475985840994}},"maxDrawdown":-0.040596545408883467,"annualizedVolatility":0.03191892660228036,"consecutiveReturnCount":91}}