At $1,318 in June 2026, ZIP 84116's Zillow Observed Rent Index records a typical observed asking-rent level blended across rental types, not the quote for a single home. The exact same-month one-year change is 4.67%, versus annualized exact same-month changes of 0.76% over three years and 4.35% over five years. Thus the recent rise breaks from the subdued middle-horizon path while more closely resembling the longer path; it is a backward-looking measurement, not a forecast. The history has 100% coverage, 3.68% annualized monthly-return variability, and a -3.81% maximum drawdown. This high-variability record calls for less confidence in any isolated current snapshot. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,187 for momentum, 2,405 for stability, and 1,927 for balanced results, with lower ranks higher.
Dollar proximity does not make the sources equivalent. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey reports $1,338 median gross rent, with a supplied $54 margin of error, for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and is a survey median rather than Zillow's blended asking-rent index. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the geographic match is useful but not literal delivery-area identity. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,494. That HUD value is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and its function differs from both ZORI and ACS. Consequently, close-looking dollar figures across these universes should be read as differently constructed benchmarks, not confirmation that the same units transact or advertise at the same level.
Broader context makes the ZIP reading comparatively low, but it does not turn a context average into a local quote. Salt Lake City city-wide rent context is $1,629, Salt Lake County county-wide rent context is $1,639, and the Salt Lake City, UT metro-wide rent context is $1,638. All are above the direct ZIP ZORI. The city, county, and metro values are wider context only and should stay named at those scopes; they do not substitute for the ZIP-level asking-rent index or establish an advertised rent for a particular residence. The spread is decision-relevant because a reader comparing geographies could otherwise mistake a wider-area benchmark for this ZIP's rent level. It does not identify why the readings differ or imply a likely direction for either market.
Bedroom detail should not be inferred as if it were observed listing data. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $953 for a studio, $1,060 for one bedroom, $1,318 for two bedrooms, $1,764 for three bedrooms, and $2,094 for four bedrooms. These modelled estimates follow the local HUD bedroom relationship rather than a measured ZIP distribution of asking rents. The ladder is useful for keeping bedroom comparisons internally consistent, but it cannot establish the rent of an actual unit. HUD FMR/SAFMR remains an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; therefore these outputs are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents or evidence of available inventory.
The income and burden evidence is more mixed than a single index-to-income ratio suggests. Annualizing the current index produces a $52,720 income screen at 30% of income. Against the ACS median household income of $66,751, the index is 23.7% of that median. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice, an affordability conclusion, or an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter-household universe, 3,617 of 6,919 households—52.3%—reported rent burdens at or above the screen's threshold. That survey result describes households and their gross-rent circumstances, not a particular building, lease, or prospective renter; it should not be used to infer a unit's cost, tenant profile, or payment outcome.
The physical-stock and vacancy picture requires the same separation of evidence. In the matched ZCTA, the vacancy rate is 7.59%, while the housing stock includes 8,008 single-family units and 4,013 units in large multifamily structures. These are aggregate stock classifications, not a count of comparable homes currently advertised for rent. A vacancy rate reflects the survey's vacant-unit universe and cannot by itself establish whether a specific property is rentable, competitively priced, occupied, in usable condition, or available on a target date. Nor does the mix of structure types identify amenities, lease terms, or quality. It provides scale and composition context, while the direct asking-rent index remains the distinct current rental measure.
The limits point to a property-level verification task rather than a mechanical conclusion. ZORI summarizes observed asking-rent conditions, ACS summarizes surveyed occupied renter homes, and HUD supplies an administrative standard; none is a listing record for a target home. The historical changes, volatility, drawdown, and discovery ranks describe the past only and are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations. For any specific listing, the relevant checks are the advertised base rent, bedroom count, lease term, included utilities, mandatory fees, concessions, actual availability, and condition. Those checks also determine whether the listing matches the bedroom model's assumptions. The operative question is whether the documented terms of that actual property align with the evidence universe being used, rather than whether one aggregate benchmark appears persuasive.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's $1,318 index rose 4.67% from the matching month a year earlier, but its annualized rate was only 0.76% across three years and 4.35% across five years. With 3.68% annualized variability and a -3.81% maximum drawdown, the current level is a useful benchmark but carries less snapshot certainty than a stable historical series would.","title":"Recent movement versus series stability"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA ACS survey's $1,338 median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a blended observed asking-rent index. HUD's $1,494 two-bedroom figure is an administrative FMR/SAFMR standard. The close values do not make the measures interchangeable, and the ZCTA boundary is a statistical match rather than a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Benchmarks are not interchangeable"},{"body":"Applying the local HUD ladder to ZORI yields modelled monthly estimates of $953 for a studio, $1,060 for one bedroom, $1,318 for two, $1,764 for three, and $2,094 for four. These are scaling outputs, not observed bedroom rents. Their value is consistency with the local HUD ladder, while their limitation is the absence of a measured ZIP bedroom series.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled"},{"body":"An arithmetic 30% screen requires $52,720 in annual income for the current index, below the $66,751 ACS median household income. Yet 52.3% of surveyed renter households were burdened above that threshold. The ZCTA also has a 7.59% vacancy rate, but that aggregate result cannot verify a particular unit's availability, price, or tenant cost.","title":"Income screen and burden signal differ"}],"risks":["ZORI represents a blended typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. It cannot establish the advertised price, availability, lease terms, utility treatment, concessions, or fees for any specific unit.","ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a matched statistical ZCTA, not a current listing census or an exact USPS delivery ZIP geography. Its median gross rent includes selected utilities.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, and the bedroom ladder here is modelled from that standard and ZORI. Neither supplies measured bedroom asking rents for currently available units.","The historical record is complete but classified high variability, so a current index may move materially relative to prior observations. Its ranks and returns describe history only and cannot predict future pricing."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey median for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Each has a different universe, timing, geography, and intended use, so agreement or disagreement does not make any one measure a substitute for another.","q":"Why do ZORI, ACS, and HUD rent figures differ?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the direct ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not observed listings, signed leases, or measured bedroom-specific rents. They preserve the ladder's relative bedroom structure, while a target property's actual bedroom rent can differ because the source does not provide a measured ZIP bedroom series.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents?"},{"a":"The screen divides annualized current ZORI by thirty percent to show the income level that would place that index at the stated share of income. It is arithmetic only, not financial advice, a budget conclusion, a tenant-screening policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Survey burden measures describe surveyed renter households and cannot determine one household's situation.","q":"What does the required-income screen establish?"},{"a":"The history shows observed ZORI movement through its endpoint, including a recent rise alongside variability and a past drawdown. It is backward-looking, not a forecast or investment recommendation. Vacancy and stock are aggregate ZCTA counts, not live listing data. A property-level review still has to establish advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities, fees, term, condition, concessions, and availability.","q":"How should history and vacancy be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":985.519005},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":979.969166},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1004.599562},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1028.14702},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1065.316841},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1080.679507},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1112.988554},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1142.086425},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1167.840051},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1197.312928},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1205.37779},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1228.803503},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1237.41344},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1267.125584},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1285.110575},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1299.530407},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1302.650882},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1303.031803},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1305.766139},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1301.755495},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1303.153834},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1299.1624},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1303.183502},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1301.601013},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1304.961842},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1299.188567},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1289.447837},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1288.479438},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1288.520602},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1290.811907},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1277.677448},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1269.431558},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1275.722567},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1287.455687},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1294.295529},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1291.343999},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1288.079697},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1286.311864},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1285.87377},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1286.856347},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1292.493222},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1294.518105},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1293.713256},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1292.877986},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1278.919677},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1272.65658},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1269.188585},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1284.260242},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1286.224919},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1295.379638},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1287.549243},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1275.809189},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1259.23126},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1256.074103},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1261.147597},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1265.94361},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1273.416331},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1274.253222},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1275.149752},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1267.826381},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1270.897176},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1270.042776},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1283.507009},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1299.136415},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1318.022705}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1259.23126,"endRent":1318.022705,"change":0.046688362072587086,"cagr":0.046688362072587086},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1288.520602,"endRent":1318.022705,"change":0.022896105001509293,"cagr":0.007574516836835965},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1065.316841,"endRent":1318.022705,"change":0.23721193007968222,"cagr":0.0434912694712184}},"maxDrawdown":-0.038055846690936534,"annualizedVolatility":0.03684974730445025,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}