At the June 2026 snapshot, the Zillow ZORI for ZIP 84401 is $1,450 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market benchmark rather than a quote for one available home. Only as wider context, the Ogden city-context rent is about $1,310, the Weber County context rent is $1,479, and the Ogden-Clearfield, UT metro-context rent is $1,614; these city, county, and metro figures are not ZIP estimates. The ZIP index therefore sits above the city contextual value but below the county and metro contextual values, a cross-scope pattern worth keeping separate from a property comparison.
The comparison with Census requires a universe change, not a judgment that either value is wrong. In the matched 84401 ZCTA, ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,267, or 14.4% below the Zillow index. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The two rent series thus answer different questions and should not be substituted for one another.
Bedroom specificity is available only as a model, not as a set of observed ZIP rents. The modelled monthly estimates are $1,085 for a studio, $1,151 for one bedroom, $1,450 for two bedrooms, $1,943 for three bedrooms, and $2,347 for four bedrooms. They scale the ZIP ZORI with the local FY2026 HUD ladder. That ladder ranges from a $1,208 studio standard to a $2,612 four-bedroom standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; consequently, the modelled ladder is a comparability tool and never measured bedroom rent.
An arithmetic screen shows why index-level affordability and household experience should not be collapsed. Applying the headline index at a 30% gross-income screen produces a $58,000 required annual income. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA median household income is $80,758, and the index equals 21.5% of that annual income when annualized; that all-household median is not renter income or proof of affordability for an individual. Separately, ACS records 3,098 of 7,277 renter households at 30% or more of income toward rent, a 42.6% burden share. Burden data describe surveyed households, not the terms or affordability of a particular unit.
The ACS housing inventory supplies a separate stock lens. The ZCTA contains 19,199 housing units: 17,826 are occupied and 1,373 are vacant, yielding a 7.2% vacancy rate. Of the vacant stock, 549 units are identified as for rent, while renter-occupied homes account for 40.8% of occupied homes. These counts are not a live availability feed, and the for-rent count does not establish the price, condition, lease terms, location, concessions, or availability of any particular listing. Likewise, vacancy is not proof that a prospective unit will be easy to rent or that a renter will receive a given price. It is a broad survey-era measure of stock status.
History adds the main caution to the current benchmark. Exact same-month Zillow measurements through June 2026 show a 1.3% change over one year, a 1.5% annualized change over three years, and a 4.1% annualized change over five years. The latest direction remains positive and therefore does not reverse the longer upward path, but it is slower than both longer growth rates. The history is classified high variability: annualized monthly-return volatility is 3.8%, and the maximum drawdown is 2.6%. Coverage is 99.2%. Transparent national discovery ranks are 1,803 for momentum, 2,494 for stability, and 2,472 for balanced history among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; variability reduces confidence in treating one current rent snapshot as fixed.
Taken together, the ZIP ZORI is useful for a current blended asking-rent reference, the ACS figures illuminate surveyed occupied renter households and stock, and HUD supplies a standard for modelling bedroom relationships. None determines an actual lease outcome. Property-level resolution requires the active advertised rent, exact bedroom count, rental type, unit condition, availability date, lease length, included utilities, mandatory fees, and any concessions; it also requires confirming that the property is actually within the relevant market geography. Only after those listing facts are known can the distinct index, survey, and administrative measures be compared without treating contextual city, county, or metro values as ZIP evidence. Does a specific available home match the assumptions embedded in this benchmark?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $1,450 for ZIP 84401. The wider Ogden city context is about $1,310, Weber County context is $1,479, and Ogden-Clearfield metro context is $1,614. This places the ZIP between the city value and the county and metro values. These are cross-scope reference points only; ZORI remains a blended typical observed asking-rent index, not a unit-level quote.","title":"Current ZIP benchmark sits between wider contextual rents"},{"body":"The Zillow index exceeds the matched ZCTA's ACS median gross rent, but the gap is not a direct measure of market change. Zillow captures a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is a statistical area and is not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Asking index and ACS gross rent are different evidence universes"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, created by scaling the blended ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard rather than asking rent, so the ladder is best read as a consistent modelling relationship, not as evidence that an available unit rents at the displayed amount.","title":"Bedroom values are modelled through the HUD ladder"},{"body":"Same-month history remains positive at every supplied horizon, but the one-year pace is below the longer-window annualized rates. Annualized monthly-return volatility and maximum drawdown support the high-variability classification, limiting certainty around one current observation. The discovery ranks are transparent comparative labels among eligible ZIP histories, with lower ranks being higher; they neither forecast rents nor rank property quality.","title":"Positive history has slowed amid high variability"}],"risks":["The Zillow reading is a blended index across rental types. It cannot confirm the rent, bedroom count, condition, availability, fees, utilities, or concessions for an individual active listing.","The ACS rent, income, tenure, vacancy, and burden figures are survey estimates from a five-year ZCTA file and have stated margins of error. They cannot establish current conditions for any household, building, or delivery ZIP.","The vacant-for-rent count is a stock classification, not active inventory. It does not evidence a particular unit's availability, price, lease term, condition, concessions, or the likelihood of securing it.","High historical variability and a recorded drawdown mean that a single current index reading may be less stable than a smooth trend implies. Historical comparisons remain backward-looking and do not predict future rents."],"qa":[{"a":"They describe different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level, blended typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and reports median gross rent with selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical geography, not a USPS delivery ZIP, so neither figure is a direct replacement for the other.","q":"Why does the Zillow rent reading differ from the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. A particular studio or larger unit can differ because the model does not observe that property's terms, utility treatment, condition, or active advertised price.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured rents for available apartments or houses?"},{"a":"No. The history shows same-month past changes, volatility, drawdown, coverage, and comparative discovery ranks through its endpoint. The latest annual pace is positive but slower than the longer windows, while high variability weakens confidence in a single snapshot. Those observations describe prior index behavior only and are not a rent forecast, investment view, or recommendation.","q":"Does the recent rent history support a forecast?"},{"a":"No. The burden share describes surveyed renter households and the vacant-for-rent count describes survey-era stock classified that way. Neither identifies an available unit, its lease terms, price, condition, or a particular household's budget. They can sit alongside listing facts but cannot prove availability or affordability for a specific property.","q":"Can the burden and vacancy figures establish affordability or availability for a specific home?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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