85008’s distinctive decision question is whether a current ZIP-level rent benchmark can anchor a search when the relevant household and housing measures come from a matched, but not identical, statistical geography. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZORI is $1,418 per month, following a 1.84% year-over-year decrease. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the match supports a disciplined comparison rather than a claim of identical boundaries. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it orients a current market view, not the rent, availability, utilities, or condition of any particular home.
Source construction matters more than the superficial proximity of rent figures. The ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,403 among occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, and gross rent includes selected utilities. That survey result is not an asking-rent quote, and its closeness to the $1,418 ZORI does not turn either series into the other. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR is $1,640, while the ZIP ZORI is 13.5% lower. FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the percentage is a comparison of benchmarks, not evidence that a particular two-bedroom is priced below a market norm. These distinct universes should remain separate in a rent decision.
Bedroom estimates add an internally consistent way to size the ZIP benchmark, with an important limitation. The modelled estimates—not measured bedroom rents—are $1,124 for a studio, $1,219 for one bedroom, $1,418 for two bedrooms, $1,894 for three bedrooms, and $2,101 for four bedrooms. They are generated by scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder, which runs from a $1,300 studio standard to a $2,430 four-bedroom standard. The sequence describes the model’s relative bedroom steps and retains the same broad ZORI starting point. It does not observe unit inventories, concessions, utilities, renovation level, or the rent of an available unit in each bedroom class.
Income and burden answer a separate question from listing rents. The matched ZCTA’s median household income is $66,353, while renter-occupied homes account for 68.7% of occupied homes, or 15,580 households. Of those renter households, 6,734, or 43.2%, are recorded as spending 30% or more of income on gross rent. This is an observed ACS burden measure across surveyed occupied renter homes; it does not establish the burden, lease terms, or eligibility for a given unit. Applying a 30% share to the monthly $1,418 ZORI produces a $56,720 annual required-income screen. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Annualized ZORI equals 25.6% of the ZCTA-wide median household income, a cross-population ratio rather than a renter-household affordability finding.
Housing availability signals need equally careful handling. Within all 24,630 housing units, 22,679 were occupied and 1,951 were vacant, a 7.9% housing vacancy rate. The vacancy total includes 703 units classified for rent and 226 classified for sale, with other vacancy statuses making up the remainder. For housing-stock composition, 9,423 single-family units and 5,789 large multifamily units are separately counted. These categories show that the stock is not one uniform form, but they do not reveal condition, asking terms, concession use, or current marketability. A vacant-for-rent count is not evidence that a particular home is available or affordable.
At broader scope, the City of Phoenix context rent is $1,569, the Maricopa County context rent is $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context rent is $1,733, against the ZIP’s $1,418 ZORI. Thus the current ZIP asking-rent index sits below each wider rent comparator. The City of Phoenix context, Maricopa County context, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context are reference scopes only; none replaces ZIP ZORI or matched-ZCTA ACS measurements. The ZIP’s renter share is higher than the city and county contextual renter shares, but those broad composition measures neither identify a listing’s tenure mix nor establish a property’s resident profile. The comparison is descriptive, not a ranking, forecast, or explanation of rent differences.
Important limits remain: ZORI averages across rental types; ACS is a survey with sampling uncertainty and uses a ZCTA proxy; and HUD is an administrative ladder. Their reference periods and treatment of utilities are not fully aligned, and modelled bedroom estimates inherit those choices. At property level, check the exact address and postal ZIP, advertised monthly rent, bedroom count, included and separately billed utilities, recurring fees and deposits, concessions and expiry, availability date, lease term, and occupancy or application terms. Also determine whether an advertised rent is asking or effective and whether any HUD standard being used is the relevant ZIP SAFMR or county-derived standard. Those checks preserve the distinction between aggregate evidence and a specific property.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI is $1,418 after a 1.84% annual decline, furnishing the current ZIP-level orientation point. It is a blended typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. It should not be treated as a quote for a particular unit because property type, utilities, terms, condition, and availability are outside that index.","title":"Current benchmark is an index, not a unit quote"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent is $1,403 for occupied renter homes and incorporates selected utilities. The $1,418 ZORI instead tracks typical observed asking rent across rental types. HUD’s $1,640 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Similar or differing levels do not authorize combining the series into one rent estimate.","title":"Rent benchmarks have different source universes"},{"body":"ZIP modelled estimates step from $1,124 for a studio to $2,101 for four bedrooms, with the ZORI-aligned two-bedroom point at $1,418. They scale the ZIP index with the local HUD ladder rather than observe rents by bedroom. They are useful for consistent scenario sizing only and cannot indicate available inventory, effective rent, concessions, condition, or included utilities.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"ACS counts show renter occupancy is the majority tenure and report a substantial share of renter households at the stated gross-rent burden threshold. Housing vacancy and vacant-for-rent classifications describe aggregate stock, not listings. The ZIP index is below city, county, and metro context rents, but those wider scopes are context only and do not explain the difference.","title":"Vacancy and context remain aggregate signals"}],"risks":["The geographic link is imperfect: 85008 is used as a Zillow market label and ACS ZCTA match, but the ZCTA is a statistical proxy rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Boundary differences can affect which households and homes contribute to each measure.","ACS income, gross rent, renter share, burden, and vacancy are survey estimates with margins of error and a different reference period from ZORI. They describe aggregate occupied homes or housing units, not live inventory or a specific applicant.","The bedroom amounts are modelled by the HUD ladder rather than measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is administrative and may be ZIP SAFMR or county-derived under the supplied ladder, so it must not be read as a direct asking-rent schedule.","Vacant-for-rent and burden figures cannot verify the price, availability, utilities, fees, concessions, tenancy rules, or affordability of any individual property. Broader city, county, and metro comparators also cannot establish conditions at a particular address."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, reporting gross rent with selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical and not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP, so methods, populations, dates, and geography differ.","q":"Why are ZORI and ACS median gross rent not interchangeable?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom figure is a modelled estimate created by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the supplied local HUD ladder. It supplies a consistent relative ladder from studio through larger bedroom classes, but it does not measure current asking rents, effective rents, concessions, utilities, or available inventory for any bedroom class.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed listing rents?"},{"a":"At the stated monthly ZORI, the required-income screen converts rent into an annual income amount by applying a 30% rent share. It is arithmetic only. It does not account for taxes, debt, household size, utilities, fees, savings, or underwriting, and it is not advice or an applicant qualification rule.","q":"What does the required-income screen show?"},{"a":"No. The for-rent vacancy count is a broad ACS category within the ZCTA’s housing stock, while metro apartment vacancy uses a separate wider-scope measure. Neither reveals whether a specific home is available, market-ready, correctly advertised, concessioned, or suitable; listing-level confirmation remains necessary.","q":"Does the vacancy information establish availability at a particular property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":664.674062},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":704.838289},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":695.199853},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":714.395526},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":715.075634},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":729.787241},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":731.161104},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":748.024355},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":757.508095},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":766.504161},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":785.88833},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":770.569958},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":776.829513},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":767.799107},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":792.577323},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":797.689208},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":797.501687},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":796.153838},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":797.973716},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":803.274987},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":807.152221},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":807.970284},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":813.427252},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":819.410959},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":835.39144},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":836.519256},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":849.504908},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":844.079984},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":862.383359},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":856.244721},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":871.143197},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":867.749588},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":879.591112},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":886.413216},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":897.206216},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":913.190367},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":920.480773},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":930.657449},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":927.238685},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":936.380078},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":943.947263},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":955.405353},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":963.439265},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":971.367653},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":984.706663},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":991.606036},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":996.64267},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":992.046898},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":992.338767},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1001.384625},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1008.537178},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1019.608762},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1020.69612},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1031.944014},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1033.826671},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1044.388118},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1042.76052},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1049.919967},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1054.940018},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1066.129268},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1081.897382},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1082.446933},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1074.288071},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1073.924942},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1075.704061},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1071.922507},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1072.401694},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1087.641785},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1096.882959},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1103.121584},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1099.339248},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1112.46143},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1127.26002},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1146.20234},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1173.510941},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1197.669133},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1219.940338},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1258.767346},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1298.250431},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1334.618928},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1355.170538},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1385.292787},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1414.063933},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1428.409202},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1432.011128},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1448.849696},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1453.414934},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1470.848239},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1480.547979},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1489.046041},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1479.407971},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1465.278868},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1474.810525},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1468.385947},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1474.634888},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1461.567349},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1479.730206},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1471.018106},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1477.338746},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1460.727727},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1463.011124},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1458.942441},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1464.904401},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1463.697619},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1458.417662},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1462.004852},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1453.262652},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1463.693924},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1447.107467},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1459.611757},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1461.219684},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1476.923522},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1478.015112},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1469.501548},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1467.398797},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1459.648718},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1461.89789},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1451.583177},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1460.024002},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1458.634748},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1466.91783},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1459.520469},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1453.600688},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1444.917231},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1440.55489},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1445.233778},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1443.385588},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1449.422659},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1445.400233},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1448.670756},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1440.722641},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1434.802161},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1428.280339},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1424.36724},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1421.769079},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1418.354233}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":136,"firstPeriod":"2015-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":136,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1444.917231,"endRent":1418.354233,"change":-0.018383750591455028,"cagr":-0.018383750591455028},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1460.727727,"endRent":1418.354233,"change":-0.029008482016717352,"cagr":-0.009764529709607395},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1197.669133,"endRent":1418.354233,"change":0.18426215882112063,"cagr":0.03440252135269506}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04747456160087937,"annualizedVolatility":0.038129297904559704,"consecutiveReturnCount":135}}