Rather than showing current asking-rent strength, ZIP 85021’s Zillow Observed Rent Index is $1,220 for June 2026, a 1.9% decline from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a measured rent for a particular bedroom count, building, lease, or renter household. The immediate reading is therefore softer than a year ago, but it is also an index snapshot rather than a guarantee that all available properties are priced similarly. The later resale evidence creates the central tension: the rental index has weakened while direct ZIP for-sale observations show a sharply different price direction.
The exact same-month annualized Zillow history measures show a one-year change of -1.9%, a three-year change of -1.8%, and a five-year change of 1.2%. Recent direction thus confirms the intermediate three-year weakness but breaks from the positive five-year path. The history has complete 100% coverage, with 118 observations and 117 consecutive monthly returns, making the backward-looking series fully observed over its available window. Variability measures 4.2% annualized, so a reader should place less confidence in any one current rent snapshot than in a smooth, low-movement series. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 8.1%, documenting the largest historical peak-to-trough decline rather than projecting another drop. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,800 for momentum, 2,666 for stability, and 2,873 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. These are historical discovery measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched ACS ZCTA five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,313, placing the current Zillow asking-rent index 7.1% below that survey measure. These figures have different populations and concepts: ACS median gross rent covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even when the shared label is 85021. For wider context only, Phoenix city context rent is $1,569, Maricopa County context rent is $1,729, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context rent is $1,733. Each of those city, county, and metro values is a broader-geography comparison, not a substitute for ZIP-level rental evidence.
The bedroom view is a modelling exercise, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $967 for a studio, $1,051 for one bedroom, $1,220 for two bedrooms, $1,627 for three bedrooms, and $1,803 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom estimate happens to equal the current blended ZIP index because it is the scaling anchor, not because all two-bedroom listings were observed at that amount. HUD’s corresponding two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR administrative standard is $1,590. HUD FMR/SAFMR is bedroom-specific administrative program standardization, not asking rent, so it supplies the local ladder shape without validating a particular market listing or lease quote.
The income screen offers a useful arithmetic reference but cannot establish household affordability. ACS median household income is $59,768, while annual income required to keep a $1,220 monthly rent at 30% of gross income is $48,800. That puts the index-derived asking-rent-to-median-income relationship at 24.5%, below the stated screen, but the calculation is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. Burden evidence adds a different lens: 5,388 of 10,183 renter households, or 52.9%, reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. Renters account for 60.6% of occupied homes. Neither the area burden share nor the income screen proves what any particular renter, unit, utility package, or lease will cost.
The matched ZCTA housing base contains 18,091 housing units, including 7,930 single-family units and 4,191 units in larger multifamily structures. Its overall vacancy rate is 7.2%, while 528 units were recorded as vacant for rent. These are area-level stock and vacancy measurements rather than a live inventory of available homes. In particular, a vacant-for-rent count does not confirm current condition, asking price, lease readiness, bedroom configuration, or whether a specific property is available. The stock mix nevertheless matters for interpreting the blended ZORI: the index spans rental types, while the local housing base includes both single-family and larger multifamily structures.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs entirely to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. It reports a median sold price of $573,370, up 33.3% year over year, with 86 homes sold and a median 50 days on market. Inventory was 131 homes and months of supply was 4.6. Sale-to-list signals were also below a uniformly competitive reading: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.2%, and 9.5% of homes sold above list price. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 2.55% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The contrast is material: rent softness and the income screen coexist with sharply higher observed resale pricing, challenging any simple single-source conclusion.
The evidence supports comparison, not prediction. ZORI does not reveal concessions, utilities, lease duration, property condition, or the mix of listings behind the index; ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied homes; HUD is administrative; and Redfin describes resale outcomes rather than rental economics. Property-level review therefore needs actual current asking quotes, bedroom and square-footage fit, included and excluded utilities, fees and deposits, lease terms, address-level condition, availability status, and sale or list records that match the property type. The key unresolved question is whether a specific property’s current lease terms resemble the blended ZIP rental index more closely than the broader survey, modelled ladder, or resale indicators.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI was $1,220 in June 2026 and declined 1.9% over one year. The exact same-month three-year change was also negative, while the five-year change remained positive. This makes the recent movement a break from the longer path, not evidence that the five-year gain remains intact.","title":"Recent rent weakness reverses the longer path"},{"body":"The Zillow index is a blended ZIP-level asking-rent measure, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The ZCTA match is statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD standards are administrative and bedroom-specific, not observed listing rents.","title":"Rent measures describe different universes"},{"body":"The 30% calculation places the current index below the median-income screen, but more than half of renter households reported rent burdens at or above that threshold. That contrast does not identify the experience of a particular household, yet it shows why median-income arithmetic alone is incomplete.","title":"Area burden complicates the income screen"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a sharply higher median sold price despite a declining asking-rent index. Sales pace, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list measures remain for-sale evidence only. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is useful solely as a cross-source screen and does not measure property economics.","title":"Resale direction conflicts with rental softness"}],"risks":["The current ZORI reading is a blended index, and its decline follows meaningful historical variability and a recorded drawdown; a single snapshot may not characterize every listing, concession package, or executed lease.","ACS, Zillow, HUD, and Redfin use distinct populations, timing, and concepts. Treating their values as interchangeable would blur occupied-home survey rent, asking rent, administrative standards, and for-sale outcomes.","The bedroom figures are modelled from the ZIP index using the HUD ladder. They do not observe actual studio through four-bedroom listings and cannot replace current property-specific rental quotes.","Vacancy and rent-burden statistics are area-level measures. They cannot prove that a particular unit is available, affordable to a particular household, in suitable condition, or offered on comparable lease terms."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS geography is a matched ZCTA, which is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why does the Zillow rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR supplies an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than observed asking rent, so neither the modelled figures nor HUD values establish a particular listing’s rent.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"The historical series has full available coverage, but the annualized monthly-return variability and maximum drawdown show that rents have not followed a perfectly smooth path. The current figure is useful as a current index observation, while the history supports caution about treating it as a stable long-term level or forecast.","q":"How much weight should be placed on the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"The ratio divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price from a direct rolling-three-month resale observation. It is only a cross-source screening comparison between asking-rent and sale-price measures. It excludes expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, and property-specific rental evidence, so it is not a return measure.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":680.274755},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":675.010387},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":689.687017},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":700.489111},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":696.623756},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":694.012105},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":683.620755},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":686.222123},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":691.383468},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":701.134829},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":706.963739},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":725.513366},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":724.110012},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":738.063917},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":726.590925},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":735.090765},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":733.741399},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":745.732059},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":764.398634},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":773.598272},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":778.3382},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":769.063583},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":771.731365},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":786.756589},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":798.091328},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":810.098935},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":813.680765},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":826.17599},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":828.252409},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":833.894247},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":836.993688},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":841.682029},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":849.140028},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":865.912466},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":870.912779},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":861.063342},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":862.583438},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":860.473922},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":873.844357},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":870.216468},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":882.759519},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":884.840505},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":900.627935},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":894.01989},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":918.649695},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":927.367693},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":949.918075},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":949.115267},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":967.489409},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":979.789635},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":989.084932},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":997.637043},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1002.692655},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1018.453559},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1045.593477},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1078.960174},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1116.579816},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1147.499701},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1182.748698},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1225.485158},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1266.31534},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1290.995982},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1293.423426},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1294.314787},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1304.36691},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1323.434041},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1318.84101},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1307.260796},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1283.772403},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1290.305272},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1284.271209},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1278.261078},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1256.863567},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1259.338156},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1266.880576},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1283.250664},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1285.487471},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1289.860079},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1301.677097},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1312.365499},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1312.979551},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1287.84888},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1273.911245},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1256.104432},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1261.785092},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1246.490065},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1254.019431},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1254.393457},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1265.622665},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1263.277555},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1263.91728},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1262.212366},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1263.863897},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1263.987291},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1272.412509},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1272.926564},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1283.869024},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1284.307356},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1288.660181},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1282.1867},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1267.44843},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1259.955947},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1250.706201},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1244.895714},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1232.329901},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1243.504243},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1239.641551},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1242.935495},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1230.79412},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1231.802247},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1219.25296},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1216.452719},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1217.294951},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1219.022665},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1220.291153},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1220.787351},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1226.895211},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1220.107702}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":118,"firstPeriod":"2016-09-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":118,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1243.504243,"endRent":1220.107702,"change":-0.018815006970587467,"cagr":-0.018815006970587467},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1287.84888,"endRent":1220.107702,"change":-0.0526002538434478,"cagr":-0.017850149949378613},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1147.499701,"endRent":1220.107702,"change":0.06327496289256129,"cagr":0.012346341052500653}},"maxDrawdown":-0.080836157062398,"annualizedVolatility":0.04169629097873181,"consecutiveReturnCount":117}}