A current rent snapshot is especially incomplete in 85027: the ZIP Zillow Observed Rent Index was $1,449 in June 2026, down 0.6% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a lease-transaction series or a bedroom-specific quote. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey instead reports a $1,607 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. The asking index equals 90.2% of that survey median, but the gap does not show disagreement in identical measures. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation provides a counterweight rather than rental evidence. Redfin recorded a $374,915 median sold price, 1.3% above the prior-year reading, alongside 110 homes sold and a 43-day median marketing time. Inventory stood at 102 homes and months of supply at 2.8. Sellers received 97.9% of list price on average; 16.8% of sales closed above list, while 24.5% went off market within two weeks. Those resale signals challenge any simple claim that asking-rent cooling automatically means parallel resale weakening, yet the below-list average also prevents a uniformly strong reading. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 4.64%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.
The longer rent record clarifies why the latest asking-rent observation deserves context. The exact same-month annualized change was negative 0.6% over one year and negative 1.6% over three years, whereas the five-year annualized result remained positive at 1.4%. Recent direction therefore confirms the intermediate cooling path but breaks from the older positive path. The history has 138 observations with 100% coverage, which supports continuity of the measurement rather than a forecast. Measured annualized monthly-return variability of 2.7% indicates that month-to-month rent-index movement has not been negligible, so confidence in one current snapshot should be measured. Separately, the maximum drawdown of 7.0% shows the scale of the largest observed retreat from an earlier peak. National discovery ranks of 2,637 for momentum and 1,102 for stability are transparent sorting tools among history-eligible ZIPs, not investment recommendations.
Bedroom detail is modelled rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the supplied local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,152 for a studio, $1,449 for a two-bedroom, and $2,143 for a four-bedroom. The corresponding HUD Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent standards are $1,510, $1,900, and $2,810. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and its ladder supplies relative sizing for the model rather than direct local rent quotes. Consequently, these are modelled bedroom estimates, never measured bedroom rents. A listing’s actual bedroom count, condition, included utilities, lease term, and concessions can diverge from both the blended ZORI index and the HUD-derived ladder.
The income and burden evidence creates a second distinction. The current asking-rent screen requires $57,960 in annual household income to place the ZIP index at 30% of gross income; against the ZCTA median household income of $76,605, the arithmetic screen equals 22.7%. This is arithmetic only, not affordability advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS survey universe, 2,939 of 7,316 renter households were burdened at or above that threshold, a 40.2% share. That burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter households across the ZCTA, while ZORI describes advertised asking rents. Neither statistic establishes the income, housing costs, lease terms, or burden status of a particular household or unit.
The matched ZCTA’s housing stock supplies scale but not a vacancy verdict for a specific listing. It contained 17,619 housing units, of which 16,811 were occupied and 808 were vacant, for a 4.6% vacancy rate. The Census count identified 428 units as vacant for rent, while renter-occupied homes represented 43.5% of occupied units. These classifications show a meaningful renter presence and a defined for-rent vacancy count in the survey geography. They do not identify unit condition, rent level, landlord terms, turnover timing, or whether a currently advertised property is available. Vacancy also cannot prove negotiating leverage, future rent movement, or the experience of any individual renter.
Broader context is lower-resolution evidence, not a substitute for ZIP measurement: the Phoenix city asking-rent context is $1,569, the Maricopa County asking-rent context is $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro asking-rent context is $1,733. Each exceeds the direct ZIP ZORI, placing the current ZIP asking-rent index below these wider-area context values. The comparison is useful for scale, but it should not be converted into a neighborhood ranking, a unit-quality adjustment, or a claim that any particular property is discounted. City, county, and metro geographies aggregate housing types and listing patterns beyond the ZIP market identifier, while the ACS values remain tied to the matched statistical ZCTA.
The evidence is strongest when kept in its own lane. Confirm a property’s current advertised rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, concessions, lease duration, and availability before comparing it with the blended asking-rent index. Check whether a HUD standard is being used as an administrative benchmark rather than as a market quote, and distinguish ACS occupied-home survey results from listing data. For a resale comparison, verify the specific sale’s timing, condition, list-price history, and whether it belongs in the direct ZIP rolling resale series. What remains unresolved by these datasets is how closely any individual available rental aligns with the ZIP-level asking-rent index, the modelled bedroom ladder, and the separate resale evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index and the one- and three-year rent history indicate cooling, while the direct ZIP resale series showed a higher median sold price than a year earlier. This is a cross-universe tension, not proof that either market drives the other. Below-list sale-to-list performance adds further nuance to the resale observation.","title":"Cooling asking-rent path conflicts with a firmer resale reading"},{"body":"The bedroom sequence is generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. It can organize a broad studio-through-four-bedroom comparison, but it does not measure actual rents for those unit sizes. HUD is an administrative standard, while ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so neither replaces a property-specific listing check.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaling tools, not local rent observations"},{"body":"The required-income calculation places the ZIP asking-rent index below the matched ZCTA median household income on a simple gross-income basis. Yet the ACS survey shows a substantial share of occupied renter households reporting rent burden at or above the same threshold. The arithmetic screen and the burden survey answer different questions and should remain separate.","title":"Household-level burden remains material despite the median-income screen"},{"body":"The ZCTA housing inventory includes occupied homes, vacant homes, renter occupancy, and units classified as vacant for rent. Those measures establish survey-scale housing context and a renter presence, but they cannot confirm that a particular advertised unit is available, competitively priced, recently renovated, or representative of the ZIP asking-rent index.","title":"Housing counts provide context, not unit availability"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards answer different questions. Treating their gaps as a direct unit-level discount or premium would erase differences in utilities, occupancy, rental type, survey design, and administrative purpose.","Historical rent figures are backward-looking measurements, even with complete supplied coverage. The cooling pattern, return variability, and drawdown describe prior index movement and do not establish a future rent path or an investment outcome.","ACS ZCTA estimates are survey-derived and carry sampling uncertainty. They describe a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so household income, gross-rent, burden, and vacancy measures should not be assigned to a particular address.","Redfin’s ZIP series is a rolling resale observation, not rental transaction data. Sale prices, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list measures can contextualize a cross-source screen but cannot establish property-level rental economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They cover different evidence universes. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences can therefore reflect definitions, occupancy status, utility treatment, and survey versus advertised-rent measurement.","q":"Why does the ZIP asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Actual listings can differ because of property condition, utilities, concessions, lease terms, and availability.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured rents for available apartments or houses?"},{"a":"It only divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the direct ZIP median sold price from the resale dataset. Because it combines an asking-rent index with a for-sale median price, it is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio. It does not include operating costs, financing, taxes, vacancies, unit condition, or property-level income.","q":"What does the rent-price screening ratio establish?"},{"a":"The historical record shows both a recent cooling direction and meaningful measured month-to-month index variability, alongside a prior peak-to-trough decline. Complete coverage improves continuity of the series, but it does not remove ordinary index movement or make the latest ZIP-level asking-rent observation representative of every available property.","q":"Why should readers be cautious about one current rent reading?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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