Resale pricing and rent momentum point in different directions in ZIP 85041. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, was $2,207 per month and rose 0.65% year over year. By contrast, the direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation reported a $384,913 median sold price, up 1.56%, alongside 134 homes sold, 48 median days on market, 161 homes of inventory, and 3.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 98.83%, while 23.87% of homes sold above list. Annualized ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 6.88% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The resale evidence supports modest price firmness but challenges a reading of rapidly expanding current asking rents.
The 85041 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters because the ACS 2024 five-year survey describes occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, whereas ZORI describes asking rents in Zillow’s ZIP market. ACS median gross rent was $1,739 and includes selected utilities, making it a different measure from the asking-rent index. The gap between the two measures should not be treated as a rent increase for a particular property, lease, or renter household; it instead signals that the current asking-rent snapshot and the survey-based occupied-home median belong to different evidence universes.
The longer ZORI record describes stable growth, but its recent pace is slower than its extended path. Exact same-month annualized change was 0.65% over one year, 0.78% over three years, and 3.57% over five years. Thus, the latest direction remains positive but does not confirm the stronger five-year growth rate. Monthly rent changes showed 2.24% annualized variability, which suggests limited historical movement around the trend and supports moderate confidence in a single current index reading. Separately, the largest historical decline was 1.50%, a shallow backward-looking drawdown rather than a forecast of future downside. History coverage was 100%; the transparent discovery ranks were 2,148 for momentum, 337 for stability, and 1,384 for the balanced measure. These are retrospective discovery measures, not investment recommendations.
In wider-context rent comparisons, Phoenix city context was $1,569 per month, Maricopa County context was $1,729, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context was $1,733; each is a broader-geography reference rather than a substitute for ZIP 85041 evidence. The ZIP’s $2,207 asking-rent index sits above all three context figures, while the Zillow index’s blended rental-type construction prevents a direct statement about any one bedroom count or building type. These comparisons frame relative level, not the availability, quality, utility package, or lease terms of a specific rental.
Bedroom figures are best used as a transparent scale rather than as observed bedroom rents. Applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,744 for a studio, $1,903 for one bedroom, $2,207 for two bedrooms, $2,947 for three bedrooms, and $3,264 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the FY 2026 two-bedroom HUD standard is the ladder reference, and the ZIP asking-rent index is 32.16% above it. That spread does not establish whether a particular advertised two-bedroom will be above or below either benchmark.
The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Paying the ZIP’s current asking-rent index at that share of income implies $88,280 in annual household income, compared with an ACS median household income of $75,301. On that simple comparison, asking rent equals 35.17% of the area median household income. ACS also estimates that 41.80% of occupied renter households paid 30% or more of income toward gross rent. Because that burden measure is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and gross rent includes selected utilities, it cannot prove affordability, burden, utility costs, or eligibility for any particular unit or household.
The matched Census ZCTA contained 20,095 housing units, with a 3.88% overall vacancy rate. Its stock was predominantly single-family: 17,175 units were single-family, compared with 661 units in large multifamily structures. Renter-occupied households represented 27.53% of occupied homes, which helps explain why an area-level asking-rent index should not be read as a complete description of the local housing stock. Overall vacancy is not a direct count of available rentals, and the structure mix does not establish property condition, leasing competition, tenant demand, or the experience of a specific renter.
The practical limitation is that each source answers a different question. ZORI is a current ZIP asking-rent index; ACS is a survey of occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin is direct ZIP resale evidence rather than rental transactions or property economics. The resale figures do show measurable sales activity and marketing conditions, but they cannot validate rental income, operating costs, lease renewal outcomes, or a property-level return. Property-level review should separately verify the advertised bedroom count, asking rent, utility responsibility, concessions, lease duration, availability date, condition, comparable active listings, recent closed sales, list prices, and marketing time. No source in this packet supplies a forecast.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 85041’s current Zillow asking-rent index increased over the latest year, yet the increase is materially slower than the recorded five-year pace. The historical pattern is therefore one of stable growth with deceleration rather than a fresh acceleration. Modest variability and a shallow historical drawdown make the current index useful as a benchmark, while still leaving property-level rents unobserved.","title":"Current asking rent is positive but slow-moving"},{"body":"The ACS median gross-rent figure measures occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while Zillow ZORI summarizes typical asking rents across rental types. HUD’s bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative standard. The modelled bedroom estimates scale ZORI through that HUD ladder, so they provide a consistent framework but are not measured rents for studio through four-bedroom listings.","title":"Survey rent, asking rent, and HUD standards are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a rising median sold price, completed transactions, active marketing time, finite inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes below full list on average. That evidence is for-sale-market evidence only. It supports price firmness while the rent history shows muted recent growth, making the annualized-rent-to-price figure useful solely as a cross-source screen rather than a property return measure.","title":"Resale conditions create a cross-market tension"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen places current ZIP asking rent above the area median-income benchmark at a 30% share. ACS also reports a substantial share of renter households paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent. However, those are area-level measures, not findings about an individual unit. The ZCTA’s predominantly single-family stock and low overall vacancy rate do not independently establish rental availability or lease conditions.","title":"Affordability pressure and stock composition require separate interpretation"}],"risks":["The current asking-rent index exceeds the ACS gross-rent median, but the measures cover different populations and utility treatments. Treating their difference as a direct market rent change would overstate what the packet establishes.","Recent rent growth remains positive but trails the longer historical rate. A reader relying only on the current month could miss that the observed trend has slowed, despite relatively low recorded variability.","Redfin resale statistics concern sold homes and listing-market conditions, not rental transactions, operating costs, tenant demand, or property cash flow. The rent-to-price screen cannot be converted into a cap rate or expected return.","Overall ZCTA vacancy and housing-stock counts cannot identify which units are rentable, available, comparable in condition, or offered with similar utilities and concessions. Property-level evidence remains necessary before interpreting local availability."],"qa":[{"a":"The Zillow figure is a ZIP-level ZORI measure: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a surveyed median for occupied households, a bedroom-specific rent comp, a lease quote, or evidence that every available property in the ZIP is offered at that amount.","q":"What does the Zillow rent number represent?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for a consistent size-based screen, but they are not measured rents, advertised rents, or verified market comparables for specific bedroom categories.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"No. Redfin provides a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation covering sold prices, sales, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. Annualized asking rent divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio and excludes expenses, financing, vacancies, taxes, insurance, and property-specific rent.","q":"Does the resale information show rental profitability?"},{"a":"A property-level review should verify the advertised rent, actual bedroom count, utility responsibility, concessions, lease term, availability date, unit condition, and competing listings. For a sale comparison, it should also verify recent closed sales, list prices, days on market, and whether the selected properties are genuinely comparable.","q":"What should be checked for an individual property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1029.040743},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1040.426717},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1039.425869},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1054.184324},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1057.889662},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1059.268677},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1057.776553},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1063.979632},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1073.226883},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1085.406383},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1092.083452},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1106.722663},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1113.997768},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1114.294839},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1122.75572},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1123.309294},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1130.169983},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1132.996281},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1140.47165},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1141.651466},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1140.359716},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1141.04391},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1148.374871},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1148.737648},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1159.635212},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1168.934984},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1178.799144},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1188.504983},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1191.993165},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1205.337746},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1208.330756},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1218.424513},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1220.503731},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1228.262272},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1237.218507},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1242.020567},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1248.668183},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1243.505519},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1244.519167},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1238.214164},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1241.60336},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1249.454437},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1266.241907},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1279.857248},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1296.069276},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1307.323775},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1321.460487},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1330.446807},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1330.434436},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1346.766286},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1360.256091},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1381.600413},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1398.08042},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1407.031286},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1413.806956},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1421.339297},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1432.360148},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1444.739569},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1453.544298},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1471.235429},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1493.827288},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1510.740255},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1524.427309},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1521.139706},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1524.517051},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1540.702149},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1562.087852},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1610.257861},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1628.311098},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1659.948862},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1666.41503},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1687.295358},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1701.925168},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1707.686298},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1739.353155},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1773.571017},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1816.19643},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1851.985984},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1877.55006},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1901.971661},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1937.139942},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1966.922349},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1969.45656},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1981.848117},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2004.171824},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2037.267171},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2043.790665},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2048.560383},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2057.908399},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2052.700953},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2064.418462},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2059.684031},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2066.844769},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2069.06176},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2087.550501},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2102.35914},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2110.706816},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2104.048305},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2113.831621},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2138.088273},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2147.320026},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2156.38276},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2135.743472},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2142.772227},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2134.883141},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2139.288755},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2150.144578},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2150.931728},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2153.5743},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2155.016073},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2166.989059},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2163.386713},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2164.590571},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2165.508933},{"period":"2024-07-0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