ZIP market identifier 85043 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not an area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. At the stated Zillow endpoint, ZORI was $1,970 per month, after a 2.83% same-month increase. This is Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types rather than a quote for a particular available home. Applying the arithmetic 30% required-income screen to that index produces $78,800 of annual income, slightly above the matched ZCTA’s $78,257 median household income. The screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule; it simply frames the current asking-rent level against a broad household-income measure.
The longer rent path is mixed rather than uniformly accelerating. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 2.83% over one year, 1.06% over three years, and 4.57% over five years. Thus, the latest direction confirms improvement from the relatively muted medium-term path, yet remains slower than the longer historical pace. Monthly index changes translate to 3.21% annualized variability, so a single current rent reading warrants moderate rather than absolute confidence. The most severe historical peak-to-trough decline was 2.83%, showing that the index did experience retreats despite positive multiyear change. Coverage is 100%; transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,464 for momentum, 1,923 for stability, and 1,853 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom ladder is a modelling exercise, not a set of measured ZIP bedroom rents. It scales the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom pattern, producing modelled monthly estimates of $1,561 for a studio, $1,701 for one bedroom, $1,970 for two bedrooms, $2,627 for three bedrooms, and $2,928 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is $1,450, $1,580, $1,830, $2,440, and $2,720, respectively. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation. The alignment of the modelled middle estimate with the aggregate ZORI does not establish that an available two-bedroom unit rents for that amount; unit type, condition, lease terms, and included charges remain unobserved here.
The matched ACS five-year survey reports a $1,697 median gross rent, with a reported $125 margin of error. Median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, making it a different evidence universe from Zillow’s current asking-rent index. The $1,970 asking-rent index is 16.1% above that ACS median, but the gap should not be treated as a rent increase for the same homes or households. It can reflect the contrast between current listings represented by an index and rents paid in occupied homes measured by a multiyear survey. The ACS income and gross-rent fields are therefore useful for an affordability screen and household context, while Zillow remains the relevant source for the current aggregate asking-rent signal.
Housing composition and renter stress create a second tension. The ZCTA housing stock is predominantly single-family, with 9,749 single-family units compared with 337 units in large multifamily structures. Its 2.7% vacancy rate is low in the surveyed stock, but that does not prove that any particular rental is scarce, available, or competitively priced. Renters account for 34.4% of occupied homes, and 46.0% of surveyed renter households report paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent. That burden measure concerns occupied renter households, not prospective tenants shopping current listings. It nevertheless indicates that the current asking-rent screen sits alongside material cost pressure in the established renter population.
Broader benchmarks place the ZIP above each named rent context, while remaining only context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence: Phoenix city context rent is $1,569, Maricopa County context rent is $1,729, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context rent is $1,733. The ZIP’s renter share and vacancy rate are below the Phoenix city and Maricopa County context measures, while its surveyed renter burden share is also below those wider geographies’ burden shares. The metro’s rent-to-income screen is less intensive than the ZIP’s screen. These comparisons help locate 85043 within wider city, county, and metro scopes, but none is a ZIP rental comp, an individual-property comp, or evidence that rents will converge across geographies.
For-sale evidence provides a meaningful counterweight to the rent snapshot. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $368,417, down 3.14% year over year. There were 74 homes sold, median marketing time was 52 days, reported inventory was 72 homes, and months of supply stood at 3.0. Average sale-to-list was 98.4%, while 26.4% of sales closed above list; the separately reported share off market within two weeks is also a resale-liquidity signal, not leasing velocity. These conditions challenge a simple reading of the positive recent rent change: asking rent was rising while the direct resale median was declining and typical sale outcomes averaged below list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 6.42% only as a cross-source screening ratio, never a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The packet cannot establish lease concessions, actual achieved rents, unit-level vacancy, landlord expenses, household composition, or property cash flow. Zillow is an aggregate asking-rent index; ACS is a survey of occupied homes; HUD supplies administrative standards; and Redfin describes ZIP resale transactions. A property-level review would need the current listing date and asking rent, bedroom count, home type, condition, lease length, utility treatment, deposits and recurring fees, availability, and genuinely comparable nearby listings. It would also need to distinguish a specific home’s resale condition and transaction terms from the ZIP’s rolling resale statistics. The central decision tension is therefore clear but limited: current asking-rent pressure and low surveyed vacancy coexist with a less firm direct resale signal, without proving outcomes for any individual rental or sale.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI of $1,970 produces a $78,800 annual-income figure under the arithmetic 30% screen, slightly above the matched ZCTA median household income of $78,257. This does not describe tenant eligibility or a household budget. It identifies a narrow aggregate relationship between a current asking-rent index and a broad survey-based income measure.","title":"Current asking-rent screen is tight against local income"},{"body":"The one-year ZORI change of 2.83% exceeds the three-year annualized change of 1.06%, indicating firmer recent direction than the medium-term history. However, the five-year annualized change was 4.57%, so the latest pace remains below the longer historical rate. Historical variability and drawdown support caution in treating one current index value as definitive.","title":"Recent rent growth improved, but the full history remains mixed"},{"body":"The displayed studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled estimates that apply the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder to aggregate ZIP ZORI. They are not observed bedroom-specific asking rents, lease transactions, or unit-level rental comps. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, while Zillow ZORI is an observed asking-rent index blended across rental types.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from HUD scaling"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation showed a year-over-year decline in median sold price alongside below-list average sale outcomes and a 52-day median marketing period. That for-sale evidence does not measure rental demand or achieved rents, but it challenges a simple interpretation that positive recent asking-rent movement necessarily coincides with uniformly firm housing-market conditions.","title":"Resale conditions complicate the rental signal"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is an aggregate, blended asking-rent measure and cannot verify the rent, concessions, utility treatment, condition, availability, or lease terms of a particular studio, house, or apartment.","ACS estimates describe occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and carry sampling uncertainty, so they should not be read as current listing rents or as precise household-level affordability evidence.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit the ZIP ZORI level and HUD ladder assumptions. They are useful for relative sizing only and may differ materially from observed rents for actual available units.","Redfin resale metrics concern rolling ZIP for-sale transactions, not rental transactions or property economics. The ZORI-to-price screen excludes operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and vacancy experience."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different populations and time concepts. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Neither figure converts directly into the other or identifies rent for one available property.","q":"Why does Zillow rent differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"It is a mathematical screen that annualizes the current Zillow asking-rent index and divides by 30%. It is not underwriting, leasing advice, a recommended budget, or an applicant qualification standard. Comparing it with ACS median household income provides broad context only, because the two sources cover different universes.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling aggregate Zillow ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard rather than asking rent. Actual unit rents can differ because the packet does not observe a listing’s property type, condition, included utilities, fees, timing, or concessions.","q":"Are the bedroom rents actual observed rents in 85043?"},{"a":"Use it only to describe direct ZIP for-sale market conditions during its rolling resale window. Median sold price, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures are not rental comps and do not establish property cash flow. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is merely a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, yield, or expected return.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data be used with the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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