At $1,393 in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 85202 is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than the recorded price of every home on the market. The latest exact same-month movement is a 1.84% increase. For wider, noninterchangeable current-rent context, Mesa city-wide is about $1,549, Maricopa County-wide is $1,729, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro-wide is $1,733; each is above the ZIP index. The label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so its boundary and aggregation can differ from mail-delivery geography. That makes it an area-level benchmark, not a statement about any particular property.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,594 median gross rent with a $50 90% margin of error. This is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and it includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent series. The Zillow index is below that ACS median, but the difference does not value or describe an individual lease because the populations and cost definitions differ. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom fair-market-rent standard is $1,850, and the current ZIP index is 75.3% of that benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so neither the ACS measure nor HUD standard should be read as a competing live listing price.
Backward-looking history shows the stronger change in pattern. Direct Zillow ZIP ZORI observations through the stated endpoint rose 1.84% on the exact same-month one-year comparison, fell at a 0.59% annualized rate across three years, and gained 1.64% annualized over five years. The recent positive direction therefore breaks from the intermediate three-year path while remaining directionally consistent with a positive five-year net path; it does not establish a forecast. The series has 100% coverage, 138 observations, and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 3.01%, and its maximum drawdown was 6.10%. The variability and prior decline reduce the confidence that belongs in one current-rent snapshot.
Bedroom figures provide a transparent sizing device, not a new set of observations. The studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and four-bedroom figures of $1,107, $1,197, $1,393, $1,860, and $2,063 are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder, with the two-bedroom rung aligned to the ZIP index. This preserves HUD’s relative bedroom pattern rather than claiming a local lease sample by bedroom count. The underlying HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, so listing mix, utility treatment, condition, and lease terms can make an actual advertised unit materially different from its modelled estimate.
Affordability and burden point to a separate tension. Applying the conventional 30% screen to the current monthly asking index produces $55,720 in annual required income, beside a matched-ZCTA ACS median household income of $71,619. That screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; area median income cannot be assigned to a household or listing. In the ACS survey, 4,646 renter households, or 56.1% of those measured for rent burden, paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. Because gross rent includes selected utilities and the survey is aggregate, the burden statistic cannot prove a specific unit’s payment, burden, eligibility, or affordability.
Housing stock describes the ZCTA’s composition and reported vacancies, not immediate supply. It contains 18,154 housing units and has 49.3% renter occupancy. The stock includes 8,723 single-family units and 3,083 units in larger multifamily structures. There are 1,356 vacant units, of which 707 are classified as for rent, producing a 7.47% overall vacancy rate. These are area-wide ACS classifications rather than a live count of apartments, turnover, or a signal that any particular residence is available. They should not be used as proof about the price, condition, or vacancy of an individual unit.
The history discovery results add a final limit rather than an outlook. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national ranks are 1,992 for momentum, 1,648 for stability, and 2,139 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. These past-measurement summaries are not forecasts or investment recommendations. The packet does not identify unit condition, availability date, advertised rent, concessions, lease length, deposit, fees, utility inclusions, or an exact bedroom count. At the property level, the listing and lease can be checked for those terms and for alignment between the advertised address and the applicable geography. Which listing-specific term, if any, explains a gap between a unit’s offer and this area-level index?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZIP asking-rent index is below the stated Mesa, Maricopa County, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler context figures. This is a geographic comparison only: the city, county, and metro values represent wider areas, while the ZIP label is paired with a Census ZCTA statistical area. It does not establish an individual property’s price, utility treatment, or lease terms.","title":"Asking-rent level sits below wider context"},{"body":"Exact same-month history combines a latest-year increase, a negative annualized intermediate interval, and a positive annualized longer interval. Complete series coverage supports the stated calculations, but monthly-return variability and the prior peak-to-trough decline limit how much confidence a reader should place in a single current index observation. These are backward-looking measurements, not a rent forecast.","title":"Recent improvement follows a mixed historical path"},{"body":"The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They retain the ladder’s relative sizing but are never measured bedroom rents and cannot substitute for a lease sample. Utility inclusion, unit condition, listing mix, concessions, and lease design can all separate an advertised unit from the modelled figure.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"Income screening and rent-burden results answer different questions. The screen converts the ZIP index into an arithmetic annual-income benchmark; it is neither advice nor an applicant rule. ACS burden describes surveyed renter households paying a share of income toward gross rent, including selected utilities. Vacancy and stock categories are similarly area-level classifications, not evidence that a particular home is vacant or affordable.","title":"Burden and vacancy remain aggregate measures"}],"risks":["The ZIP identifier and Census ZCTA are matched reporting geographies, but their boundaries are not identical to USPS delivery areas; this can affect comparisons for a property near an edge.","Zillow’s index combines observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS reports occupied renter households and selected utilities; a difference between them cannot be attributed to condition or any lease term.","The bedroom amounts are proportional HUD-ladder estimates, not observed rents. A property’s actual bedroom count, fees, concessions, utility inclusions, availability timing, and lease duration may produce a materially different offer.","Vacancy, tenure, and burden data are survey aggregates with margins of error and classifications. They cannot verify that a specific unit is vacant, affordable, or occupied by a household with any income."],"qa":[{"a":"It is a ZIP-level ZORI, described here as a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes an area-level market measure rather than an inventory count or contract rent. It can frame a comparison, but it does not identify the rent, utility treatment, condition, or availability of a particular advertised home.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"The ACS figure comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is an asking-rent index. Different populations, timing, and cost definitions mean the measures need not align. The comparison identifies a source-universe difference; it cannot identify why a particular listing differs or establish which measure is the unit’s price.","q":"Why is the ACS gross-rent figure different from ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP ZORI. HUD’s standards are administrative and bedroom-specific, not asking rent. The resulting amounts preserve relative sizing for comparison, but they do not count listings or measure leases in each bedroom category.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed local rents?"},{"a":"Rent burden is an ACS aggregate describing surveyed renter households whose gross rent consumes a stated income share, while vacancy is an area-wide housing classification. Neither statistic attaches to a property. They should be kept separate from the arithmetic income screen and from live listing facts such as price, concessions, utility inclusions, lease duration, and availability.","q":"How should the burden and vacancy results be read?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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