The key tension in 85205 is that the current Zillow ZIP asking-rent reading has softened only modestly while the direct ZIP resale market shows a larger price retreat. Zillow ZORI is $1,753 and is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease comp for a particular home. The Redfin median sold price is $379,814, down 6.79% year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that sale price produces a 5.54% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or valuation conclusion. The 85205 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Backward-looking Zillow history places the current cooling in a longer but uneven path. The exact same-month 1-year ZORI change is -0.46%, breaking from annualized gains of 1.07% over 3 years and 3.96% over 5 years. Monthly rent changes annualize to 2.89% variability, which means a single current ZORI observation deserves more confidence as a broad ZIP signal than as a precise property-level target. The worst recorded peak-to-trough setback was 2.09%, a relatively contained historical decline that does not erase the current slowdown. History has 100% coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,373 for momentum, 1,419 for stability, and 2,301 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks indicating higher placement; these are discovery tools, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The rent sources answer different questions and should not be substituted for one another. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,446 for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities, making current ZIP ZORI 21.23% higher. That gap does not prove that a newly listed unit will rent above the survey median because the ACS figure reflects occupied homes and a different survey universe. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom administrative standard is $1,610, while the ZIP ZORI reading is 8.88% higher. HUD is bedroom-specific program administration rather than an asking-rent measure, so it should not be treated as a market rent observation.
The bedroom ladder is useful only as a modelling device. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the relative local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates, respectively from studio through four-bedroom, of $1,394, $1,513, $2,341, and $2,613, with the ZIP index serving as the two-bedroom anchor. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Their purpose is to preserve the local HUD spacing between bedroom categories while retaining the ZIP-wide asking-rent level. Actual rents can differ because the ZORI blend, HUD standards, building form, condition, included utilities, concessions, and lease terms need not match a particular listing.
The supplied income screen is arithmetical rather than an affordability recommendation or applicant qualification rule. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, a household would need $70,120 in annual income to support the current ZIP ZORI. The ZCTA median household income is $73,283, putting the index at 28.71% of that benchmark, just below the screen. This is not renter-income evidence and cannot establish what any applicant can pay. ACS burden data present a separate retrospective result: 2,855 of 5,236 renter households, or 54.53%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above the screen. Neither the burden rate nor the median-income comparison proves affordability for a particular unit.
Housing composition adds an important limit to any ZIP-wide rent reading. The matched ZCTA contains 23,590 housing units, has a 16.69% vacancy rate, and has a renter share of 26.64%. Its stock includes 14,365 single-family units, so the ZORI blend may span rental types that do not resemble a given apartment or house. The reported vacancy rate exceeds the city and county context rates, but aggregate vacancy is not evidence that a specific rental is available, competitively priced, or in comparable condition. For-rent, for-sale, and seasonal vacant homes are distinct ACS categories; their combined presence cannot be converted into a current listing count or a unit-level negotiating conclusion.
Wider geographies provide reference points but not substitutes for ZIP evidence. Mesa city-context rent is $1,548.58, while Maricopa County-context rent is $1,729 and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro-context rent is $1,733. Each comparison is broader in scope than the Zillow ZIP market identifier, and none is a rental comp for 85205. The ZIP reading sits above all three context values, whereas its renter share is below the city and county context shares. That combination describes cross-geography differences in the supplied datasets, not a cause of rent levels or evidence about a property’s tenant pool, expense profile, or future performance.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation describes for-sale transactions, not rental transactions. It recorded 153 homes sold with a median marketing time of 51 days, inventory of 154 homes, and 3 months of supply. Sellers received an average 98.7% of list price, and 11.42% of sales closed above list. Those liquidity signals sit beside the sharper resale-price decline stated above: they confirm that current conditions are softer than a simple rent snapshot might imply, while challenging any attempt to use the income screen as a transaction-pricing answer. Before extending either dataset to a property, check the address geography, current comparable asks, bedroom count, structure type, condition, utility treatment, concessions, lease terms, list history, and closed-sale record. Do those property-specific records support using a ZIP-level rent index and a separate ZIP resale observation for the same decision?
","findings":[{"body":"The current asking-rent index has moved into a slight year-over-year decline after positive multi-year growth, while the direct resale median shows a noticeably larger annual decrease. That divergence is the report’s main decision tension. It does not establish a causal relationship between rents and sale prices, but it limits confidence in any single-source reading of current conditions.","title":"Rent cooling is mild relative to resale repricing"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI describes a ZIP-level typical asking-rent index. ACS median gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The differences between these figures are expected source-universe differences, not confirmation that one measure is correct and the others are incorrect.","title":"Asking rent, gross rent, and HUD standards are separate measures"},{"body":"The required-income calculation is simple arithmetic using the current ZIP asking-rent index and a fixed share of income. ACS burden data instead describe reported gross-rent burdens among renter households in the survey. The supplied household-income benchmark is not a renter-income distribution, so neither measure can determine whether an individual household qualifies for or can sustain a specific lease.","title":"The income screen and burden data answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin provides direct ZIP for-sale evidence, including sales activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Those measures are useful for describing resale liquidity but are not rental transactions or property operating data. A property-level assessment still requires matching the actual unit’s type, condition, lease terms, current asking comparables, listing history, and relevant closed sales.","title":"Resale liquidity needs unit-level confirmation"}],"risks":["The ZIP asking-rent index blends rental types and is not a rent roll, signed-lease dataset, utility schedule, or verified asking price for a particular address, bedroom count, or condition level.","ACS gross rent and rent-burden results are survey measures for occupied renter homes, so they can lag current listings and cannot demonstrate that any vacant unit has the same cost, utility treatment, or tenant payment capacity.","The Redfin data concern direct ZIP resale transactions rather than rentals. Sale prices, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list outcomes therefore cannot be used as rental comparables or as property-level operating economics.","Aggregate vacancy includes different vacant-home statuses and does not establish availability, quality, concessions, lease flexibility, or negotiating leverage for a particular rental home or apartment listing."],"qa":[{"a":"The Zillow figure is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It tracks asking-rent conditions rather than signed leases, utility-inclusive gross rent, HUD limits, or the rent of a particular bedroom count. It is useful as a current ZIP screen, but it is not a unit-specific quote.","q":"What does the Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"The two sources use different evidence universes. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities in gross rent, while Zillow reflects a typical observed asking-rent index. The difference does not show an error or prove that currently available rentals will achieve the Zillow level.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than the Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index with the relative local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve the supplied administrative spacing across bedroom classes, but they are not measured studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit asking rents in the ZIP.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"No. The Redfin observation describes ZIP for-sale and resale conditions, while annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio. It excludes property-specific expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, operating income, and actual lease terms, so it cannot establish return or yield.","q":"Does the resale information establish a property investment return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":853.175154},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":849.672589},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":845.273057},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":835.343481},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":849.437337},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":845.161194},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":850.445688},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":850.63963},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":862.210147},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":875.002062},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":877.854896},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":878.777372},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":881.103114},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":894.88453},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":898.911325},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":908.881681},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":901.440129},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":912.532046},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":906.539882},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":912.411756},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":914.712633},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":931.081619},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":939.230767},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":942.959651},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":939.835677},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":945.072629},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":955.177459},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":961.229552},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":963.581002},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":960.073915},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":971.606442},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":976.740248},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":984.811743},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":968.184682},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":978.720833},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":981.595413},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1004.461839},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1002.146943},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1010.37738},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1017.592358},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1040.327615},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1042.687654},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1049.884759},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1044.530272},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1062.733267},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1065.930358},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1067.099645},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1065.245776},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1067.069185},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1084.786745},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1087.568476},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1092.961195},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1091.719195},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1106.949058},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1114.691597},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1133.9581},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1133.949043},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1156.773858},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1169.887562},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1191.945066},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1202.583982},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1212.728078},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1208.948275},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1217.952327},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1226.35527},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1217.647433},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1222.040836},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1226.599557},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1252.200847},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1251.738695},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1277.013986},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1301.013197},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1328.54249},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1333.600816},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1352.874308},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1379.330695},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1419.315561},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1443.312573},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1476.488806},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1501.161701},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1522.553316},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1551.0748},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1573.328004},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1592.023142},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1603.442822},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1623.323651},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1623.381125},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1631.013831},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1621.321104},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1633.463316},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1624.387133},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1633.377158},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1633.123738},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1651.248969},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1632.817756},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1632.88452},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1639.134113},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1657.019076},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1678.084094},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1686.416293},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1697.250351},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1698.031944},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1710.314659},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1718.465793},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1721.034906},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1713.895837},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1711.227722},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1710.678672},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1696.894207},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1703.237275},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1711.486454},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1715.620614},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1714.080696},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1714.123607},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1712.133953},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1722.511329},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1725.790599},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1730.855678},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1739.555548},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1729.357966},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1746.857067},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1745.838661},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1757.765821},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1755.291758},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1762.409507},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1761.064265},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1765.958485},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1759.257992},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1762.195538},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1763.478857},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1766.729326},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1778.941368},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1774.5517},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1771.315621},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1756.688651},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1756.737653},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1751.687713},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1752.90303}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1761.064265,"endRent":1752.90303,"change":-0.004634263020492302,"cagr":-0.004634263020492302},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1698.031944,"endRent":1752.90303,"change":0.03231451928444984,"cagr":0.010657520188153136},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1443.312573,"endRent":1752.90303,"change":0.21449993770684084,"cagr":0.03963166654086048}},"maxDrawdown":-0.020900366022613914,"annualizedVolatility":0.0288696991333776,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}