At June 2026, Zillow ZIP ZORI for this market was $2,267 per month, up 5.3% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote or a measure of every occupied unit. For wider context, the Mesa city context rent was $1,549, the Maricopa County context rent was $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context rent was $1,733; each is a broader-area comparison rather than a substitute for ZIP evidence. The ZIP reading therefore shows a materially higher current asking-rent level than these city, county, and metro reference points, while the current annual change remains positive.
The backward-looking Zillow history supports that current direction, but not a claim of smooth rent movement. Exact same-month rent changes annualized to 5.3% over one year, 3.0% over three years, and 4.7% over five years, so the latest advance confirms rather than breaks from the longer positive path. The history has complete coverage across 138 observations. Monthly movements produced 3.6% annualized variability, which reduces confidence in treating one current index reading as a permanently settled level. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 5.0%, showing that periods of decline have occurred within the broader rise. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 607 for momentum, 2,328 for stability, and 1,283 for the balanced measure; these are descriptive discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The 85207 five-digit label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters because the ACS 2024 five-year estimate describes occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, while Zillow describes current asking-rent conditions in the ZIP market. ACS median gross rent was $1,791 and includes selected utilities, placing the current asking-rent index 26.6% higher. HUD FY 2026 provides a different universe again: its two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard was $1,800, and the ZORI reading was 25.9% above it. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so neither comparison converts ACS or HUD values into market listings.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,801 for a studio, $1,952 for one bedroom, $2,267 for two bedrooms, $3,023 for three bedrooms, and $3,350 for four bedrooms. These figures are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they retain the limitations of both the ZIP-level asking-rent index and HUD's administrative bedroom ladder. They are useful for seeing the implied spacing across unit sizes, but they do not establish the asking price, utility treatment, condition, availability, or lease terms of a particular home.
The income screen and the burden evidence create an important internal tension. Applying the arithmetic 30% screen to the current ZIP asking-rent level produces required annual household income of $90,680, below the matched ZCTA median household income of $108,699; the annualized asking-rent-to-income screen is 25.0%. That is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. Meanwhile, ACS reports that 50.3% of renter households paid at least 30% of income toward rent, showing that a ZIP-wide median-income comparison does not describe every renter household. The housing stock is concentrated in single-family structures, with 17,241 such units and 1,130 units in large multifamily buildings. Overall vacancy was 13.4%; 323 vacant units were for rent and 1,900 were seasonal. Those vacancy categories cannot prove availability, pricing, or negotiating conditions for any specific unit.
Direct ZIP resale evidence supplies a separate counterweight to the rent history. In Redfin's rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, median sold price was $569,871, down 12.3% year over year. The period recorded 197 homes sold, a median 51 days on market, inventory of 201 homes, and 3.1 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals were also measured within this resale universe: the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.0%, while 12.5% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale market observations, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence about lease performance. Still, they describe resale liquidity and pricing conditions that do not mirror the positive current rent direction.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price produces a 4.8% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening calculation joining an asking-rent index to a resale price observation, and it cannot establish the economics of a particular property. The key tension is that asking rents have recently risen and the longer rent path remains positive, while the direct resale median declined and sale-to-list signals remained below parity. That conflict does not invalidate either source. Instead, it limits any simple interpretation that a stronger current rent snapshot is accompanied by equally strong resale evidence, especially given the history's variability and drawdown.
Several limits remain material before ZIP-level data are applied to a property. ZORI blends rental types and does not reveal unit-level condition, concessions, utility obligations, pet charges, lease duration, or availability. ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes with sampling uncertainty, and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities. HUD is a program standard, while Redfin describes completed resale activity rather than rentals. Property-level checks should compare the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, recurring fees, lease terms, and current availability with the modelled ladder. For any sale comparison, confirm the relevant closed-sale features and transaction timing rather than treating ZIP medians as interchangeable. Does the specific listing support the broad ZIP signal, or does it differ on the details the ZIP measures cannot observe?
","findings":[{"body":"Current Zillow ZORI rose from the same month a year earlier, and the one-, three-, and five-year annualized changes were all positive. However, the historical path included meaningful month-to-month variation and a measurable maximum drawdown. The current asking-rent snapshot is therefore supported by the longer direction of travel, but its precision is limited by prior movement around that trend.","title":"Rent momentum is positive but not low-variation"},{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index exceeds the matched ZCTA ACS median gross rent and the local HUD two-bedroom administrative standard. These are not conflicting measurements of the same thing: ACS covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific program benchmark. The gaps show different rent universes, not proof that any particular listing is overpriced.","title":"Asking rent sits above both ACS and HUD reference measures"},{"body":"The ZIP-wide median household income clears the arithmetic income level associated with the current asking-rent index under a 30% screen. Yet roughly half of surveyed renter households were rent burdened under the ACS definition. This contrast means a median-income comparison can describe broad capacity while still missing the distribution of renter incomes, household sizes, and utility obligations.","title":"Income screen and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale observation showed a year-over-year decline in median sold price, marketing time above a month, and an average sale-to-list ratio below full list price. Those for-sale signals are separate from rental evidence, but they challenge an uncomplicated interpretation of the positive rent trend. The rent-to-price figure remains only a cross-source screening ratio rather than a property-level result.","title":"Resale conditions challenge a simple rent-strength reading"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP-level asking-rent index, so it cannot confirm the rent, concessions, utilities, lease terms, condition, or availability of a particular unit advertised in the market.","The ACS burden estimate describes occupied renter households in the matched statistical ZCTA, not current applicants or specific rentals, and survey uncertainty limits precision for smaller household subgroups.","Redfin resale indicators are direct rolling-period for-sale observations rather than rental transactions. A declining resale median does not prove weaker rental demand, nor does rent growth prove stronger resale conditions.","Bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZORI with the HUD ladder. They should not be treated as measured studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit rents without listing-level verification."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Existing leases, utility treatment, survey timing, and the distinction between occupied homes and advertised units can all create a gap.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent figure higher than the ACS median gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply divides the annualized ZIP asking-rent index by 30% to produce an arithmetic household-income reference point. It is not applicant advice, a leasing qualification rule, or a conclusion about individual affordability. The ACS renter-burden result demonstrates why household-level circumstances can differ substantially from a ZIP-wide median-income comparison.","q":"Does the required-income screen show that renters can afford this ZIP?"},{"a":"The current reading is supported by positive same-month change over multiple historical horizons and by complete observation coverage. Confidence should still be moderated because monthly rent changes showed elevated annualized variability and the history experienced a drawdown. The snapshot is useful as a current benchmark, but it should not be interpreted as a stable endpoint or forecast.","q":"How much confidence should be placed in the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"It is the annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's ZIP median sold price. The calculation is useful only for comparing two broad data series from separate source universes. It does not include operating expenses, financing, taxes, repairs, vacancy at a property, transaction costs, or property-specific rents, so it cannot establish an individual asset outcome.","q":"What does the rent-to-price screening ratio mean in this report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1088.585165},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1094.434654},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1114.789819},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1114.359312},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1116.611249},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1118.051903},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1128.243058},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1130.977786},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1141.045833},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1141.637126},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1147.311827},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1150.862519},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1157.16121},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1154.754219},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1146.486307},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1148.407093},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1150.553834},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1151.315877},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1156.175264},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1164.697786},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1167.668189},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1171.543152},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1175.717275},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1184.795346},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1206.217571},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1219.336609},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1224.468703},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1229.370164},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1229.432302},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1243.457484},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1232.845355},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1239.554969},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1249.676086},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1258.343186},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1268.632561},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1269.808849},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1271.430206},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1280.22393},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1288.126008},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1278.046247},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1284.762055},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1291.064866},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1329.029395},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1322.559243},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1322.82238},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1325.828949},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1326.682109},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1346.352842},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1364.445595},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1382.879402},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1395.460747},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1420.551602},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1433.725129},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1439.055062},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1429.077101},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1445.049645},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1454.084685},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1460.797119},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1467.000703},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1460.14619},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1450.159239},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1436.958525},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1449.483348},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1482.628632},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1507.224202},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1523.338905},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1525.314671},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1545.779099},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1568.845434},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1594.648154},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1628.026884},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1664.378858},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1724.022317},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1730.459187},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1731.043391},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1733.612323},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1743.124386},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1799.543247},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1831.887199},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1887.251037},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1897.938835},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1917.282018},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1924.555414},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1922.355344},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1914.588909},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1974.216225},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2025.205348},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2072.989777},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2061.667496},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2045.981969},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2063.997159},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2055.850152},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2063.495067},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2064.830042},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2051.232271},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2078.177807},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2071.103893},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2072.277138},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2047.796124},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2032.512611},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2061.358},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2072.606675},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2088.167146},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2081.667986},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2096.544828},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2080.508847},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2087.410139},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2057.87896},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2095.59076},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2079.183858},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2137.396043},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2145.808691},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2175.249262},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2158.780489},{"period":"2024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