85209 opens with a measured supply-versus-rent tension: a 17.3% housing-unit vacancy rate, including 3,087 seasonal homes within 3,854 vacant units, sits beside a $1,775 Zillow asking-rent index. That ZIP-level index exceeds the $1,549 Mesa city context value, the $1,729 Maricopa County context value, and the $1,733 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro context value. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a count of currently available listings or a quote for a particular home. The sizeable vacancy figure therefore should not be read as proof that comparable rentals are readily available at the index level; its seasonal composition is an important limitation.
Recent rent direction breaks from the longer path. The one-year exact same-month annualized change was -0.2%, and the three-year measure was -0.7%, while the five-year measure remained positive at 2.0% annually. The history has complete 100% coverage, with 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns, so the stated pattern is based on a continuous series rather than isolated readings. Annualized variability was 3.0%, indicating relatively contained month-to-month movement but still enough movement to limit confidence in a single current snapshot. The worst historical peak-to-trough decline was 3.0%, reinforcing the cooling classification. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,519 for momentum, 1,582 for stability, and 2,490 for balanced history; lower ranks indicate higher placement, and these are descriptive ranks rather than forecasts or investment judgments.
Scope prevents treating the Zillow index and Census rent statistic as substitutes. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS 2024 five-year data report a $1,864 median gross rent with a $72 90% margin of error, placing the current asking-rent index 4.8% below that survey median. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks observed asking rents across rental types. The ACS median household income was $84,432 with a $5,531 margin of error, but that all-household statistic is not a distribution of incomes among applicants for a specific rental.
The bedroom ladder is useful only as a modelled translation of the ZIP index. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the supplied local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,406 for a studio, $1,526 for one bedroom, $1,775 for two bedrooms, $2,367 for three bedrooms, and $2,624 for four bedrooms. These are not measured bedroom rents or listing-based bedroom averages. The corresponding local HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,070, making the modelled two-bedroom estimate 14.3% lower. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard that may be ZIP SAFMR or county-derived in this packet; it is not an asking-rent measure and should not be used to redefine the Zillow or ACS series.
The affordability screen adds a separate, arithmetic tension. At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, annual income of $71,000 corresponds to the $1,775 monthly asking-rent index. This is a calculation, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS ZCTA survey, 53.6% of 4,957 renter-occupied households reported gross-rent burdens of at least 30%; that is a population-level survey measure, not evidence about the payment capacity of a prospective tenant or the burden attached to one unit. The housing stock is also weighted toward single-family structures, with 14,225 such units out of 22,295 total units and 1,066 units in larger multifamily buildings. ACS classifies 445 units as vacant for rent, but that category cannot identify active, comparable, or currently advertised homes.
Redfin provides a different direct ZIP observation: a rolling-three-month for-sale and resale record, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $429,903, down 4.5% year over year, with 207 homes sold and 63 median days on market. Inventory stood at 142 homes, 15.0% below its year-earlier level, while months of supply was 2.1. Sale-to-list evidence also stayed within the resale universe: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.8%, 9.5% of sales closed above list, and 20.9% went off market within two weeks. The $1,775 ZORI annualized and divided by the median sold price creates a 4.95% cross-source screening ratio only. The falling sold-price reading and the recent rent declines both support a cooling interpretation, while the limited months of supply makes the resale evidence less one-directional than price change alone.
Wider comparisons should remain in their lanes. The Mesa city, Maricopa County, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro figures cited above are city, county, and metro context respectively, not replacements for the ZIP asking-rent measure. Their lower asking-rent context values describe broader geographies that can contain different housing mixes, renter shares, survey populations, and listing patterns. Likewise, county and metro HUD standards are administrative context, whereas the matched ZCTA ACS figures describe surveyed occupied homes and Redfin describes direct ZIP resales. The useful conclusion is not that one source corrects another, but that each answers a distinct question about asking rents, occupied-household costs, administrative standards, or resale conditions.
Several limits remain before any property-level conclusion. Zillow’s index cannot identify a listing’s exact bedroom count, lease term, furnishing, concessions, condition, utility responsibility, or availability date. ACS sampling uncertainty, seasonal vacancies, and the distinction between USPS delivery geography and a ZCTA further narrow what the local aggregates can establish. The rent history is backward-looking, not a forecast or investment recommendation, and Redfin’s aggregate resale signals do not create rental comparables or property economics. Concrete checks should include the live quoted rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease terms, concessions, current listing status, property condition, and whether the property is actually within the intended ZIP market identifier. Does the specific listing remain consistent with those verified details after the broad ZIP indicators are separated by source?
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index remains above the named Mesa, Maricopa County, and metro context values, yet exact same-month rent history declined over both one and three years. The positive five-year annualized result shows that the recent cooling period has not erased the full longer-run increase. Moderate historical variability supports using the index as a broad benchmark, not as a precise quote.","title":"Cooling rent history offsets a still-elevated asking index"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI measures typical observed asking rents across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, and HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks. Because their timing, universe, and included costs differ, the lower Zillow index relative to ACS gross rent does not demonstrate that new leases are cheaper on a like-for-like basis.","title":"Source differences are material, not contradictory"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen is below the reported ACS median household income, while more than half of surveyed renter households were burdened at the gross-rent threshold. At the same time, much of the ZIP vacancy count is seasonal rather than necessarily available for lease. Neither aggregate burden nor vacancy evidence establishes affordability or availability for an individual household or property.","title":"Burden and vacancy measures require cautious reading"},{"body":"Direct Redfin ZIP resale data show a year-over-year decline in median sold price and marketing times measured in months rather than immediate turnover. However, months of supply remained limited, and sale-to-list measures indicate that transactions were generally closing below list without implying a fully inactive market. The rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio and does not represent property economics.","title":"Resale evidence supports cooling but preserves liquidity tension"}],"risks":["Seasonal homes make up a substantial portion of measured vacant units, so the aggregate vacancy rate may overstate the number of currently marketed rentals comparable by location, condition, bedroom count, and lease terms.","The ACS gross-rent statistic includes selected utilities and reflects occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period, creating timing and cost-coverage differences from Zillow’s current asking-rent index.","Redfin resale indicators concern sold homes and for-sale inventory, not rental transactions; median sold price and sale-to-list signals cannot establish rent levels, operating costs, or economics for any specific property.","Historical rent cooling and measured variability are backward-looking observations only, and the continuous series cannot identify future lease pricing, concessions, tenant demand, or the outcome for an individual listing."],"qa":[{"a":"The supplied five-digit label functions as a Zillow ZIP market identifier and matches a Census ZCTA for ACS reporting. A ZCTA is a statistical area constructed for census tabulation, whereas a USPS delivery ZIP is an operational mail-routing geography. This distinction limits direct property-level interpretation of the ACS figures.","q":"Why does the report distinguish the ZIP label from the Census geography?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not observed bedroom-specific asking rents, completed leases, or active listing averages, and they should not replace verification of a unit’s actual quoted rent.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for available units?"},{"a":"It is arithmetic based on the current monthly asking-rent index: annualized rent divided by a 30% threshold produces the stated income screen. It is not financial advice, a tenant-screening standard, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability depends on household income, utilities, debts, concessions, and lease terms not reported here.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"The ratio divides annualized ZIP Zillow asking rent by Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price, placing two separate source universes beside each other for broad screening. It omits operating expenses, taxes, insurance, financing, maintenance, vacancy performance, property condition, and rental comparability, so it cannot describe returns for a particular property.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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