At $1,453, the current 85210 Zillow Observed Rent Index is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and it was 0.45% higher than a year earlier. That quiet rent movement sits beside a direct ZIP Redfin resale median sold price of $384,413, down 10.6% year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that sold-price median produces a 4.54% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The central tension is therefore modestly positive current asking-rent movement alongside a substantially lower observed resale price.
The Zillow ZIP history is classified as high variability and contains 105 monthly observations with 104 consecutive changes at full coverage. Exact same-month rent changes annualize to 0.45% over one year, negative 0.37% over three years, and 2.06% over five years. Recent direction breaks from the medium-term decline while remaining consistent with positive longer-path growth. Monthly rent movements translate into 3.93% annualized variability, so one current rent snapshot deserves measured confidence rather than a strong directional reading. Separately, the series experienced a 6.85% maximum drawdown, documenting material historical slippage. Transparent discovery ranks were 2,353 for momentum, 2,559 for stability, and 2,737 for the balanced score among history-eligible ZIPs; these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions explain why several rent figures do not match. The matched Census ZCTA five-year ACS survey reports $1,497 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, a measure that includes selected utilities, placing the Zillow asking-rent index slightly below it. HUD’s 2-bedroom Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent standard is $1,730, leaving ZIP ZORI 16% lower; HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,151 for a studio, $1,251 for one bedroom, $1,453 for two bedrooms, $1,940 for three bedrooms, and $2,150 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The arithmetic affordability screen starts with ACS ZCTA median household income of $61,957. At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, a $1,453 monthly asking-rent screen requires $58,120 in annual income. This is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule, and a ZIP-wide household-income median cannot describe any particular renter’s earnings. ACS also estimates that 53.4% of occupied renter households pay at least 30% of income toward rent. That burden share identifies broad survey-measured exposure among renter households; it does not prove burden, affordability, utility costs, or lease terms for a selected unit.
ACS reports 16,235 housing units in the matched ZCTA and a 6.1% vacancy rate. Its 8,718 renter-occupied homes represent 57.2% of occupied housing, indicating that renters form the larger occupied tenure group in this statistical area. The reported housing stock includes both single-family structures and larger multifamily structures, so the blended ZORI should not be read as a building-type-specific quote. Vacancy is an area-level count and rate across units, while availability, condition, concessions, and rent at a particular property can differ. Neither the vacancy figure nor renter share establishes that a chosen home is vacant or financially suitable.
For wider context, the Mesa city-context asking-rent value is $1,549, the Maricopa County context asking-rent value is $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro-context asking-rent value is $1,733. Each is broader context rather than a substitute observation for 85210, and all sit above the ZIP’s direct Zillow asking-rent index. Mesa city, Maricopa County, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro figures each cover different geographic populations and housing mixes. Their comparison helps locate the ZIP’s level, but it does not turn city, county, or metro rents into ZIP rental comparables.
Redfin’s direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation describes the for-sale market, not rental transactions. It recorded 79 homes sold with median marketing time of 52 days, inventory of 75 homes, and 2.9 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 98.19%, while 15.6% of sales closed above list and 33.31% went off market within two weeks. Those liquidity and pricing signals stay entirely in the resale universe. Together with the earlier-reported sold-price decline, they challenge any simple reading of the lightly positive current asking-rent change as a uniformly strengthening housing signal. Conversely, they do not refute the rent history or establish a property’s operating economics.
The five-digit label 85210 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. This report also cannot reconcile ZORI’s blended asking-rent index with a specific unit, ACS survey estimates, HUD administrative standards, or a resale record. Property-level checks should verify the exact bedroom count, current asking rent, utility treatment, lease duration, concessions, availability date, unit condition, sale listing history, and the applicability of any relevant HUD standard. Those checks determine whether broad ZIP evidence maps to the individual property under review.
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index was nearly flat year over year, but the history shows a negative three-year annualized change and positive five-year annualized growth. Recent direction therefore breaks from the medium-term path without erasing the longer record. High variability and the historical drawdown reduce the confidence that should be placed in a single current rent reading.","title":"Rent path is mixed"},{"body":"At the stated 30% threshold, the current ZIP asking-rent index requires annual income slightly below the ACS ZCTA median household income. Yet more than half of ACS renter households are estimated to pay at least 30% of income toward rent. This combines an arithmetic screen with a broad burden measure; neither result determines affordability for a specific applicant or home.","title":"Affordability screen is narrow"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale median sold price declined materially while current asking rent edged upward. Redfin’s sales volume, marketing time, supply, sale-to-list result, above-list share, and off-market timing are for-sale observations only. Their coexistence with the rent data creates a useful tension: the rent snapshot is not confirmed by a similarly positive resale-price movement.","title":"Resale and rent signals diverge"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, and HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks. The bedroom figures in this report are modelled from the local HUD ladder and ZIP ZORI. They should be used as scaled estimates rather than measured market rents by bedroom.","title":"Definitions drive comparisons"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI blends rental types and reflects a typical observed asking-rent index, so it may not match the bedroom count, condition, utilities, concession package, or lease terms of an individual available home.","ACS ZCTA values are survey estimates for a statistical area, carry sampling uncertainty, and describe occupied renter homes rather than current listings, a particular household, or an individual landlord’s pricing decision.","The annualized rent-to-price screen combines Zillow asking-rent data with Redfin resale data. It excludes operating expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, and property-specific transaction costs.","Redfin resale indicators cover a rolling three-month for-sale observation and cannot be used as rental comparables. Marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list signals do not establish rental demand or a unit’s availability."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a matched ZCTA five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, geographic definition, occupancy status, and utility treatment can all produce different values.","q":"Why does Zillow rent differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates produced by scaling the ZIP Zillow rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured ZIP rents by bedroom, listing averages, lease transaction averages, or evidence that a particular unit can be rented at the stated amount.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen: annualizing the stated monthly Zillow asking-rent index and dividing by 30%. It is not financial advice, a landlord standard, or an applicant qualification rule. ZIP-wide ACS household income and renter-burden estimates cannot establish whether a particular household can afford a specific lease.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"Use it only to describe the direct ZIP for-sale market during the rolling three-month observation. Median sold price, price change, homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals are resale evidence, not rental transactions. The Zillow-rent-to-Redfin-price calculation is a cross-source screening ratio, not a property yield or return.","q":"How should the Redfin resale evidence be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":882.885928},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":888.807508},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":902.03429},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":903.081963},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":913.147346},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":919.044274},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":940.083362},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":932.208157},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":936.756843},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":935.568953},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":953.509986},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":949.65553},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":959.334907},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":964.074053},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":980.329614},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":993.147417},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":992.613053},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":998.143027},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":992.261037},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1007.46242},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1020.665971},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1034.080526},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1038.671299},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1053.173754},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1060.61047},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1068.08225},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1064.635172},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1070.950813},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1081.903773},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1075.911449},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1069.684363},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1059.183267},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1060.969405},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1074.982596},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1080.842159},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1101.168971},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1115.864206},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1128.03819},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1131.51861},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1146.73797},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1148.816248},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1175.496078},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1197.939728},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1261.915612},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1311.968421},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1342.054393},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1373.365126},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1386.84844},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1411.971756},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1440.511952},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1474.369429},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1500.980677},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1510.365957},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1506.590136},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1516.015699},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1487.277465},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1486.863209},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1468.889917},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1468.39113},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1458.452288},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1461.55536},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1463.371544},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1471.509345},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1466.01781},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1474.223104},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1478.060411},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1481.431618},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1483.239123},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1469.113302},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1486.585692},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1483.574369},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1482.262275},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1472.873704},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1466.541754},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1474.281799},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1462.313443},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1462.936293},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1448.148244},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1442.312049},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1443.845383},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1456.552126},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1463.155795},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1484.04786},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1491.610152},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1490.346519},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1465.041956},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1438.719045},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1441.422536},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1445.733774},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1464.343921},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1469.152444},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1468.685443},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1446.149548},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1433.757145},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1417.143996},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1412.14406},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1414.719504},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1433.532999},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1446.284161},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1449.571685},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1443.902124},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1436.227431},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1435.189118},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1436.829167},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1452.661575}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":105,"firstPeriod":"2017-10-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":105,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1446.149548,"endRent":1452.661575,"change":0.004503010777139993,"cagr":0.004503010777139993},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1469.113302,"endRent":1452.661575,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