ZIP 85212 recorded a Zillow Observed Rent Index of $2,204 in June 2026. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market-level asking-rent measure rather than a lease for a particular home or apartment. The level is useful as a current snapshot, but it should be read alongside its history, the stock of renter homes, and the separate for-sale evidence. Its ZIP label matches a Census ZCTA, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The sharpest cross-source tension is between still-positive rent history and a softer direct resale reading. Redfin's rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation showed a median sold price of $551,375, down 2.41% year over year, with 271 homes sold. Marketing time was 58 days, inventory was 297 homes, and months of supply stood at 3.3. Sellers received an average 98.49% of list price, while 9.86% of sales closed above list. This is direct ZIP for-sale evidence, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 4.80% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. Falling resale prices challenge any simple interpretation of the positive asking-rent path.
Backward-looking Zillow history nevertheless describes stable growth rather than a rent decline. The exact same-month one-year change was 1.54%, the three-year annualized change was 0.92%, and the five-year annualized change was 3.00%. Recent direction therefore confirms that rents remained above the prior year, but it breaks from the faster growth pace embedded in the longer five-year path. Annualized monthly-return variability measured 2.58%, which supports somewhat more confidence in this single current rent snapshot than a highly erratic series would. The maximum drawdown was 2.47%, showing that declines occurred even within the broader upward record. Coverage was 100% across 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,868 for momentum, 843 for stability, and 1,479 for the balanced measure; lower ranks indicate stronger placement among history-eligible ZIPs, not a forecast or investment recommendation.
Source differences matter because the near match between current ZORI and the ACS figure does not mean the datasets measure the same thing. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reported median gross rent of $2,209 with a $202 margin of error for occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom standard was $2,360; HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation. The bedroom ladder scales ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder, producing modelled monthly estimates of $1,746 for a studio, $1,896 for one bedroom, $2,204 for two bedrooms, $2,942 for three bedrooms, and $3,259 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and should not replace property-specific asking-rent checks.
The local income and burden evidence presents another distinction. The matched ZCTA's median household income was $125,902, while applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the $2,204 ZORI produces required annual income of $88,160. That arithmetic screen puts the asking-rent-to-income relationship at 21.01%, but it is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In ACS renter-household data, 1,574 of 2,745 renter households, or 57.34%, reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. This burden measure includes household and utility circumstances that the ZORI screen does not observe, so it cannot prove affordability or unaffordability for a particular available unit.
The matched ZCTA had 18,043 housing units, with 16,788 single-family units and 373 units in larger multifamily structures. Its 795 vacant units translate to a 4.41% vacancy rate, but vacancy is a housing-stock measure rather than evidence that a specific rental is available. Only 152 units were classified as vacant for rent, and the renter share was 15.91%, indicating that renter households are a minority of occupied homes in this statistical area. These composition figures help explain why broad rental indexes, renter-survey measures, and individual listing availability can diverge. They do not establish lease-up conditions, turnover, concessions, or vacancy at any specific property.
For wider context only, Mesa city context had Zillow rent of $1,548.58, Maricopa County context had $1,729, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context had $1,733. ZIP ZORI was therefore 42.3% above the Mesa city context, 27.5% above the Maricopa County context, and 27.2% above the metro context. Those are geography-scope comparisons, not substitutes for ZIP measurements: city, county, and metro series include homes and renter populations outside 85212. The gap supports the view that the ZIP's current asking-rent index is locally elevated relative to broader benchmarks, while the direct ZIP resale price decline cautions against treating that rent level as a complete market signal.
Several limits remain material. ZORI does not identify unit condition, lease term, included utilities, concessions, furnishing, pets, or precise bedroom mix; ACS is a five-year survey rather than a current listing feed; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin describes only the rolling resale market. A property-level review should verify the actual asking rent, bedroom count, utility responsibility, lease concessions, availability date, address-to-ZIP match, and any recent comparable rental listings. It should also separate a home's resale facts from its rental terms. The central decision question is whether the specific unit's documented terms align with the modelled rent ladder and household budget, rather than whether one broad index alone appears favorable.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow rent history remained positive over one, three, and five years, but the direct Redfin ZIP resale observation showed a year-over-year decline in median sold price. That contrast does not invalidate either measure because they cover different markets. It does make the current rent index insufficient as a standalone indicator of broader housing-market direction.","title":"Positive rents meet softer resale pricing"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are constructed by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The result is a coherent relative schedule for screening different unit sizes, but it does not measure asking rents by bedroom count. Actual listings can differ because of condition, utilities, concessions, furnishing, lease length, and other unobserved terms.","title":"The bedroom schedule is a model, not a rent survey"},{"body":"The 30% required-income calculation is a mechanical comparison of current ZIP asking rent with annual household income. ACS gross-rent burden instead reflects surveyed occupied renter households and includes selected utilities. A high burden share cannot establish that a particular listing is unaffordable, just as the arithmetic screen cannot determine an individual applicant's qualification.","title":"Income screen and burden rate answer different questions"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA has a relatively small renter share and housing stock heavily concentrated in single-family units. Vacancy counts are also broader than the for-rent supply because they include homes vacant for other reasons. Readers should avoid translating area vacancy or tenure composition into a conclusion about availability at one property.","title":"Rental evidence sits in a mostly owner-occupied stock"}],"risks":["Current ZORI is an index of typical observed asking rents across rental types, so it may not match the rent, condition, utility treatment, bedroom count, concessions, or lease terms of a specific available property.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year renter survey estimates may differ from current ZIP listing conditions, household composition, and rental inventory.","Redfin resale data are direct ZIP for-sale observations, not rental transactions; a declining median sold price cannot by itself determine future rents, landlord economics, or the value of any individual home.","The 30% income screen and renter burden rate are population-level arithmetic and survey measures. Neither should be used as proof of an individual household's ability to pay or eligibility."],"qa":[{"a":"Their numerical proximity does not make them interchangeable. Zillow ZORI measures a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, unit composition, and survey uncertainty can still produce similar dollar levels.","q":"Why are Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent so close here?"},{"a":"It allocates the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index across bedroom sizes according to the local HUD bedroom-standard ladder. It is a modelled monthly estimate for screening unit sizes, not a measured record of asking rents for studios, one-bedroom homes, or any other specific bedroom category.","q":"What does the modelled bedroom ladder actually represent?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's direct ZIP median sold price. The calculation can help compare two market-level series, but it omits operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy at a property, and actual lease terms. It is not a cap rate, property yield, or return estimate.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be used?"},{"a":"Verify the property's actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, concession terms, lease duration, furnishing status, availability date, and exact address geography. Also separate recent resale information from rental evidence, because a home's sale history does not establish its current lease terms or rental-market position.","q":"What should be verified before using these figures for a particular home?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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