ZIP 85213 presents a measured affordability tension: its June 2026 Zillow ZORI of $1,669, a typical observed asking-rent index, sits 3.5% below the matched ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent of $1,730. That relationship occurs alongside a ZCTA median household income of $103,969, while the arithmetic 30% required-income screen for the current ZORI is $66,760. Yet 48.4% of ACS renter households reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. The screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the burden figure does not establish affordability for any particular available unit.
The recent rent direction is positive but slower than the longer path. The one-year exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 1.6%, the three-year measure was 1.0%, and the five-year measure was 3.2%. Thus, the latest increase confirms continued upward asking-rent movement rather than reversing it, but it does not match the stronger five-year pace. Annualized monthly-return variability registers at 4.4%, so a single current ZORI reading deserves measured confidence rather than being treated as a fixed price point. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 4.9%, showing that the series has experienced declines. Coverage is complete at 100%, with 88 observations and 87 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,825 for momentum, 2,737 for stability, and 2,575 for the balanced measure; lower ranks indicate stronger placement. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source differences matter before treating the current figure as a tenant payment or a bedroom quote. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard and not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,325 for a studio, $1,439 for one bedroom, $1,669 for two bedrooms, $2,225 for three bedrooms, and $2,473 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom reference is $1,890. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Wider geography provides context rather than substitute evidence: for city context, Mesa, AZ has a rent figure of about $1,549; for county context, Maricopa County is at $1,729; and for metro context, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ is at $1,733. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index is therefore above the city-context figure but below both county- and metro-context figures. Those comparisons do not make the surrounding geographies rental comps, and they should not be blended with the direct ZIP ZORI, ZCTA survey statistics, or HUD administrative standard. Their value is limited to locating the ZIP’s current index within explicitly broader city, county, and metro scopes.
The housing-stock evidence also counsels against reading the vacancy headline as immediately rentable supply. The ZCTA contains 15,223 housing units and has a 13.8% vacancy rate, but 1,329 vacant units are seasonal while 267 are classified as for rent. A 21.5% renter share indicates that renter households are a minority of occupied households in this ZCTA. Structure counts show 9,663 single-family units compared with 298 units in large multifamily buildings. These ACS figures describe the area’s housing stock and vacancy categories, not current leasing inventory, physical condition, landlord terms, or availability of a particular home.
Redfin’s direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation shows a for-sale market that should remain separate from rental evidence. Median sold price was $584,868, down 0.9% year over year, with 117 homes sold and a median 48 days on market. Redfin reported 219 active listings, inventory of 117 homes, and 3.0 months of supply. Sale-to-list evidence was also below full list price on average at 97.9%; 10.5% of sales closed above list, while 29.4% went off market within two weeks. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals for ZIP 85213, not rental transactions, lease comparables, or property-level operating results.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 3.42% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or estimate of owner economics. The main cross-market tension is that asking rent rose over the latest year while the direct ZIP median sold price declined modestly. That challenges any simple reading that recent rent movement is confirmed by resale pricing, even though the resale data also show completed sales and limited months of supply. The affordability screen adds another unresolved layer: area-level income and current asking rent look less strained than the ACS burden share, but none of these aggregates identifies a household’s actual payment capacity.
Important limits remain at the property level. ZORI does not reveal the rent, concessions, bedroom count, utility responsibility, lease duration, condition, or availability of an individual listing. ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin measures completed for-sale activity rather than leasing. A concrete review should verify the advertised rent and effective rent after concessions, confirm which utilities are included, match the actual bedroom and bathroom configuration to the modelled ladder, inspect current listing status, and distinguish seasonal or other vacant units from units truly offered for rent. The central question is whether those property-specific facts support or materially diverge from this ZIP-level evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 ZIP ZORI is below the matched ACS median gross-rent measure, and the arithmetic income screen is below ZCTA median household income. However, nearly half of ACS renter households reported gross-rent burdens of at least 30% of income. The contrast is useful for screening aggregate conditions, but it cannot determine affordability or qualification for a particular renter or listing.","title":"Current rent and burden point in different directions"},{"body":"One-year and three-year rent changes are positive, while the five-year annualized pace is stronger. Recent direction therefore extends the longer upward history but at a slower pace. Complete historical coverage improves confidence in the measurement record, yet elevated monthly variability and a recorded drawdown mean a single current asking-rent snapshot should not be treated as unusually precise or permanent.","title":"Rent growth remains positive, with meaningful variation"},{"body":"The bedroom ladder scales the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index using local HUD bedroom standards. It provides internally consistent modelled estimates for studio through four-bedroom units, but it does not measure asking rents for actual apartments or houses of those sizes. ACS gross rent, ZORI, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions and should not be substituted for one another.","title":"Bedroom figures are a HUD-scaled model, not market observations"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a modest year-over-year decline in median sold price even as ZIP asking rent rose over the latest year. Completed sales, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list measures describe for-sale liquidity only. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price calculation is a cross-source screening ratio, not a property yield, return, or operating-income measure.","title":"Resale pricing does not fully confirm recent rent movement"}],"risks":["The apparent gap between ZORI and ACS gross rent may reflect different populations, time structures, and utility treatment rather than a change in what a currently available unit costs.","High historical variability and a documented rent drawdown reduce the confidence that should be placed in one current asking-rent index reading, especially for property-specific pricing decisions.","The vacancy rate includes seasonal and other vacant units, so it cannot demonstrate immediate rental availability, leasing competition, condition, concessions, or the suitability of any individual home.","Redfin resale observations and the annualized-rent-to-price screening ratio omit financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, management, renovations, and transaction-specific differences that shape property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen that annualizes the current ZIP ZORI and divides it by 30% of gross income. It is not rent advice, a leasing standard, an applicant qualification rule, or proof that a household with that income can afford a specific unit after utilities, debt, taxes, or other expenses.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"They represent separate evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a direct measure of asking rent.","q":"Why can Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR differ?"},{"a":"Redfin does not describe rental transactions in this packet. Its rolling three-month ZIP observation reports for-sale outcomes, including median sold price, completed sales, marketing time, listings, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. Those figures can test whether resale evidence aligns with rent indicators, but they are not lease comps or rental operating results.","q":"What does the Redfin information say about the rental market?"},{"a":"Verify the current advertised and effective rent, concessions, lease length, utility responsibility, actual bedroom and bathroom count, listing status, and whether the unit is genuinely available. Also distinguish the property’s physical condition and rental terms from ZIP-level modelled bedroom estimates, ACS survey values, HUD standards, and Redfin’s separate resale-market observations.","q":"Which property-level facts should be checked before relying on the ZIP summary?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1108.631021},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1123.745398},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1121.164374},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1121.441437},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1127.228848},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1137.778719},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1155.099019},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1183.03571},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1198.967316},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1220.287463},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1239.699654},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1266.515305},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1256.843184},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1253.425846},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1245.877596},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1230.230698},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1238.177488},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1248.917619},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1265.189741},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1274.04784},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1282.315793},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1278.585683},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1283.742028},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1282.561294},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1302.789679},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1327.247984},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1371.914996},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1427.174893},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1467.251646},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1510.719761},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1528.900752},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1541.053246},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1548.586922},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1576.887198},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1624.802259},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1657.468141},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1665.173782},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1663.30814},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1642.297806},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1631.250493},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1623.151614},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1621.582952},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1636.196631},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1644.468695},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1657.499008},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1640.867029},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1611.395669},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1599.853068},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1594.478367},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1618.249161},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1613.439617},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1621.271387},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1611.442513},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1615.682521},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1596.980155},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1602.848841},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1600.270483},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1624.902141},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1632.814732},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1642.86181},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1657.513712},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1645.499585},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1655.431499},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1644.349022},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1664.584536},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1652.970496},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1647.573706},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1583.434547},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1592.141107},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1596.22556},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1641.631346},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1659.519487},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1661.278394},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1651.724855},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1651.838073},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1641.697963},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1637.311515},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1647.707728},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1661.456488},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1708.765547},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1703.609475},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1693.535085},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1660.944872},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1646.829151},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1642.617653},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1653.910712},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1654.009096},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1668.744444}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":88,"firstPeriod":"2019-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":88,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1641.697963,"endRent":1668.744444,"change":0.016474699737444753,"cagr":0.016474699737444753},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1621.271387,"endRent":1668.744444,"change":0.029281375950169553,"cagr":0.009666712221854112},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1427.174893,"endRent":1668.744444,"change":0.16926415408850648,"cagr":0.03176912357457096}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04908751019477675,"annualizedVolatility":0.04435756796322913,"consecutiveReturnCount":87}}