The central ZIP reading is a close match between current asking-rent and survey rent, alongside a meaningful difference between a household-income screen and reported renter burden. The 85226 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI for 2026-06 was $1,906, up 1.32% from a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-level rent survey. The matched ACS median gross rent was $1,892, placing the two series near each other, but they describe materially different housing and respondent universes.
ACS 2024 five-year data describe occupied renter homes and include selected utilities in gross rent, whereas ZORI reflects asking rents. The ZCTA reported median household income of $114,817 with a $10,647 margin of error. Annualizing the current ZORI produces a $76,240 income figure under the 30% required-income screen, and annualized asking rent equals 19.9% of the reported median household income. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Still, ACS recorded 6,592 renter households, of which 2,689, or 40.8%, reported paying at least 30% of income toward rent. The income screen therefore should not be used to dismiss the burden measure, which reports a different household-level survey outcome.
Backward-looking rent history shows steady but unevenly paced gains rather than a straight-line pattern. The one-year exact same-month annualized change was 1.32%, the three-year measure was 0.56%, and the five-year measure was 2.51%. Recent direction therefore improves on the slower three-year path but does not match the longer five-year pace. Monthly-return variability was 2.69%, indicating that individual monthly changes have moved around the trend and limiting confidence in any single current rent snapshot. The maximum drawdown was 4.16%, showing that the history included a retreat from a prior high despite its overall positive multi-year result. Coverage was 100%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,989 for momentum, 1,040 for stability, and 1,744 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. Those backward-looking ranks reinforce the distinction between comparatively stronger historical stability and weaker momentum; they are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Wider geographies provide context only, not substitutes for ZIP evidence. In Chandler city context, rent was $1,903 and the renter-burden share was 45.6%; in Maricopa County context, rent was $1,729 and burden was 52.6%; in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context, rent was $1,733, the rent-to-income screen was 23.6%, and apartment vacancy was 8.1%. The ZIP’s current Zillow index is thus close to the city-context rent measure and above the county and metro context values. Its reported burden share is lower than the city and county context shares, while the ZIP-specific income screen is also less demanding than the metro-context screen. These comparisons describe differently scoped city, county, and metro aggregates and should not be treated as ZIP-level rental comps.
The bedroom ladder is best read as a standardized modelling device, not a set of observed unit rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,511 for a studio, $1,637 for one bedroom, $1,906 for two bedrooms, $2,544 for three bedrooms, and $2,821 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and the ladder uses that standard only to distribute the ZIP-level ZORI across bedroom counts. Consequently, none of these modelled estimates establishes what an available unit of that size is asking, what utilities are included, or what a signed lease would show.
Housing-stock data add a second constraint on broad ZIP interpretation. The ACS ZCTA counted 17,435 housing units, including 12,567 single-family units and 2,194 units in larger multifamily structures. The overall vacancy rate was 3.5%. These counts show a housing base that is not limited to one building form, while leaving the mix of rental listings, lease terms, condition, and unit size unresolved. Vacancy is a population-level measure rather than proof that a particular rental is available or competitively priced. Similarly, the stock composition does not establish that a specific renter can access either the ZORI level or a modelled bedroom estimate.
Redfin supplies a separate direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, and its evidence creates a useful tension with the calmer rent path. ZIP median sold price was $509,885, up 3.85% year over year, with 89 homes sold and a median 36 days on market. Redfin reported inventory of 94 homes and 3.2 months of supply, while the average sale-to-list result was 99.3%. These are for-sale market and resale-liquidity signals, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 4.49% screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Price growth in the resale series exceeded the current one-year rent-index increase, which challenges any simple reading that a stable asking-rent snapshot alone captures cross-market pricing conditions.
Several limits remain material. ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year survey with respondent and utility-treatment differences; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin covers resale activity rather than rentals. The ZCTA and ZIP relationship is geographic matching, not proof of identical delivery boundaries or identical housing inventories. Property-level review should separately verify the actual asking rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease fees, availability date, physical condition, and whether a relevant sale observation is truly comparable. The decision question is not whether one broad metric is definitive, but whether a particular unit’s terms remain consistent with these distinct ZIP, survey, administrative, and resale reference points.
","findings":[{"body":"The $1,906 Zillow ZORI and $1,892 ACS median gross rent are close numerically, but they should not be treated as interchangeable. ZORI is a current asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Their proximity is informative, not confirmation that available units lease at the ACS median.","title":"Current rent is near the ACS gross-rent benchmark"},{"body":"The one-year rent change of 1.32% exceeds the three-year annualized change of 0.56%, indicating improvement from the slower intermediate path. It remains below the five-year annualized change of 2.51%. The 2.69% variability and 4.16% maximum drawdown mean the current index should be read as a useful benchmark with historical movement around its trend.","title":"Recent rent momentum is positive but below the longer-run pace"},{"body":"A $76,240 annual income corresponds mechanically to paying the current ZORI at 30% of income, below the reported ZCTA median household income. Yet 40.8% of surveyed renter households reported burden of at least 30%. The first measure is a standardized rent-to-income calculation; the second is a household survey result and may reflect incomes, rents, utilities, and household circumstances not captured by the screen.","title":"Income arithmetic and renter burden point to different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show 89 homes sold, 36 median days on market, and 3.2 months of supply. Those figures describe for-sale market activity only. The 4.49% annualized-rent-to-sold-price screening ratio is a cross-source comparison, not an operating-income measure. Resale price growth outpacing the current rent-index change is a reason to keep sale-market and rent-market evidence separate.","title":"Resale activity is liquid enough to observe, but it is not rent evidence"}],"risks":["The close relationship between ZORI and ACS gross rent may be overread because one is a current asking-rent index and the other is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes with selected utilities included.","The reported renter-burden share is subject to survey uncertainty and describes households in aggregate, so it cannot establish affordability, payment history, or qualification prospects for any particular available rental unit.","Bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with a HUD administrative ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents and may differ from actual listings because unit quality, utilities, fees, and lease terms vary.","Redfin resale figures describe sold homes and market liquidity, not rental transactions. The annualized-rent-to-price screening ratio excludes financing, operating costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property-specific income information."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at a current point in time. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A close dollar result is a useful cross-check, but it does not make the series interchangeable or prove that current listings match surveyed occupied-home rents.","q":"Why can Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent be close but still mean different things?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP-level ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, not asking rent. These outputs provide a consistent size-based reference, but an actual unit’s rent can differ because its included utilities, condition, lease terms, fees, and availability may differ.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed asking rents for 85226?"},{"a":"The history is backward-looking and shows positive annualized change over one, three, and five years, with the latest one-year pace above the three-year pace but below the five-year pace. Monthly-return variability of 2.69% and a 4.16% maximum drawdown show that the index has moved around its broader path. Complete coverage improves confidence in the historical record, but it does not turn one current reading into a forecast.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current ZORI snapshot?"},{"a":"The 4.49% figure is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price in the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. It can help compare broad rent and sale-price levels across sources, but it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. It omits property-specific rents, expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy, and transaction costs.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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