Rent and resale signals diverge in this ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $2,131 per month, 3.94% above its same-month prior-year level. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, the median sold price is $504,886, 6.76% below the year-earlier result. Those opposite signs are the central tension: the asking-rent index accelerated while a for-sale price measure declined. They do not establish a shared cause, and neither converts into the other. The rent reading is an observed asking-rent index, whereas the resale reading comes from sales; it should not be interpreted as rental transactions, a property appraisal, or a forecast.
ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not the price of a standard unit. Its backward-looking same-month history shows annualized change of 3.94% over one year, 1.53% over three years, and 3.40% over five years. Thus, recent direction confirms the longer positive path, accelerates relative to the three-year pace, and slightly exceeds the five-year pace; the supplied history category is accelerating. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.18%, and maximum drawdown is -2.29%. The record has 100% coverage across 138 monthly observations. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,158 for momentum, 1,896 for stability, and 1,546 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher. These measurements describe past index movement only, not a forecast or investment recommendation. Full coverage improves confidence in the history’s completeness, while variability means any one current rent snapshot remains an index point rather than a fixed market quote.
Resale liquidity needs its own reading. The Redfin three-month ZIP resale observation records 140 homes sold, a median 52 days on market, and 123 homes of inventory, alongside 2.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result is 98.08%, and 14.72% of sales closed above list. These are direct for-sale measures: they describe completed sale activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and price negotiation in the ZIP, not lease signings or rental availability. Combined with the price decline in the opening comparison, the below-list average challenges any simple claim that the rent index alone represents uniformly strengthening housing conditions. Yet the resale record also contains completed transactions and a stated supply reading; none of those facts measures a landlord’s rent, expenses, or transaction outcome.
Bedroom figures add scale, not new observations. Applying the local FY2026 HUD studio-through-four-bedroom ladder to the ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,691 for a studio, $1,835 for one bedroom, $2,131 for two bedrooms, $2,838 for three bedrooms, and $3,153 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they cannot substitute for active listing comparables. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; it supplies the proportional ladder used here, not a survey of current offers. The Zillow index is still a typical asking-rent index blended across rental types, so its match to the modelled two-bedroom figure reflects the scaling construction. Unit condition, utility treatment, lease terms, and availability are not supplied by this ladder.
The ACS 2024 five-year matched ZCTA reports median gross rent of $1,972, with a reported $108 margin of error. That is a different evidence universe: ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, rather than an asking-rent series. The current asking index is 8.1% above this survey median, a cross-source level comparison rather than proof that a newly advertised unit costs that much more than every occupied home. Recall periods, included utilities, rental-type mix, and sampling precision all limit direct equivalence. This ACS figure is useful as occupied-home context, but not as a replacement for the Zillow asking-rent index or the HUD administrative standard.
The affordability screen likewise combines aggregate measures cautiously. At the structural 30% screen, annualizing the ZIP asking-rent index produces required income of $85,240. Against the matched ZCTA’s $111,160 median household income, that index-to-income arithmetic is 23.0%. It is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; a median across households cannot establish any renter’s pay, household composition, or ability to pay. ACS further records 1,824 of 4,135 renter-occupied households with gross rent at or above the burden threshold, or 44.1%. Because that is a survey measure for occupied renter households, it indicates aggregate burden context only and cannot prove the burden, rent, or occupancy status of a particular unit.
Stock and vacancy context reinforces the need to avoid unit-level conclusions. The matched ZCTA contains 15,711 housing units and a 2.5% vacancy rate, while renters occupy 27.0% of occupied homes. Its disclosed stock includes 13,185 single-family units and 728 units in large multifamily structures, a mix that helps describe the surveyed housing base but not the rental choices presently offered. There are 161 units classified as vacant for rent. That category is not evidence that any named property is vacant, available, priced at the index, or suitable for a particular household. The ACS/ZCTA stock count and vacancy measures should remain distinct from Zillow asking data and Redfin’s direct resale counts.
Geographic matching imposes another limit. The five-digit label 85233 is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context only, the City of Gilbert city-context rent figure is $2,019, Maricopa County’s county-context rent figure is $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro-context rent figure is $1,733. These wider scopes are comparisons, not ZIP estimates. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price is 5.06%, only a cross-source screening ratio—not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. A property-specific conclusion would require current unit-level asking terms, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease duration, availability, condition, and sale/list/closing records. The remaining question is whether a specific property’s documented terms actually align with these separate aggregate evidence universes?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index rose 3.94% over the latest same-month year, exceeding its three-year annualized pace. Meanwhile, Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median sold price was 6.76% lower year over year, with sales averaging below list. This is a meaningful cross-source tension: it supports neither a blanket strengthening nor weakening conclusion because asks and completed sales measure different markets.","title":"Asking-rent acceleration and resale repricing point in different directions"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are constructed by scaling the blended Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They make household-size comparisons possible within the supplied framework, but they are not observed rents by bedroom and are not active listing comps. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, while ZORI reflects typical observed asks across rental types.","title":"HUD-scaled bedroom numbers are model outputs"},{"body":"Annualizing the ZIP asking index gives a 30% required-income screen below the matched ZCTA median household income, while ACS reports 44.1% of renter households at or above the gross-rent burden threshold. These measures answer different aggregate questions and neither determines eligibility or affordability for any applicant. ACS also covers occupied homes and selected utilities rather than only fresh asking rents.","title":"Aggregate affordability is below the median-income screen but burden remains material"},{"body":"The ZORI series has complete reported coverage and a limited historical drawdown, which improves confidence that the trend record is not sparsely observed. However, its annualized monthly-return variability and the difference between survey, asking-rent, HUD, and resale universes limit the precision of a single current number. Unit-level terms, utilities, condition, and live availability remain unobserved.","title":"Strong historical coverage does not eliminate current-snapshot risk"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index can differ from the price, condition, bedroom mix, utility treatment, lease length, and actual availability of a currently marketed unit in this ZIP.","ACS is a multiyear survey of occupied renter homes, carries sampling uncertainty, and includes selected utilities, so it cannot establish the current asking rent or burden for a specific household.","Redfin records completed ZIP resale activity in a rolling window rather than rentals; sale price, supply, days on market, and negotiation signals do not quantify landlord operating economics.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard, and the resulting bedroom ladder is modelled from ZORI; neither confirms a live unit’s rent, features, tenancy status, or transaction terms."],"qa":[{"a":"In this report, ZORI is Zillow’s ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for the asking-rent direction and level supplied, but it is not a lease transaction series, a standard-bedroom quote, or a measure of utility-inclusive occupied-home cost.","q":"What does the current Zillow ZORI reading represent?"},{"a":"ACS uses a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while Zillow tracks a ZIP asking-rent index. Their timing, population, utility treatment, and rental mix differ. The gap is therefore a descriptive cross-source comparison, not evidence of an error or a unit-level spread.","q":"Why do the ACS and Zillow rent measures differ?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates produced by applying the local HUD ladder to the ZIP ZORI level. HUD FMR/SAFMR supplies administrative bedroom relationships, while ZORI is blended across rental types. The packet provides no measured bedroom-specific asking-rent sample.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the direct ZIP median sold price, allowing a cross-source screening comparison of the supplied level measures. It omits operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, property type, and transaction-specific facts. It is not a cap rate, yield, or expected return.","q":"What can the Redfin rent-price screen show?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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