85281 poses a narrow current-rent question: does the ZIP’s asking-rent signal provide a sensible starting point for examining a specific available home, while remaining separate from household-survey and administrative benchmarks? The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI was $1,687 per month, down 2.29% year over year. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it describes a ZIP-level market signal rather than a quoted contract, a count of listings, or an all-in cost for any one property. Its main decision use is setting the current ZIP reference point before unit details are reviewed.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 5-year median gross rent was $1,677, with a 90% margin of error of $50. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks a different, asking-rent universe at a later point in time. The $10 gap is therefore an alignment check, not a basis to combine records, label either source more accurate, or infer a current listing’s utilities. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $2,010, above ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its difference from ZORI should not be called a discount, a premium, an achieved-rent result, or evidence about a particular lease.
The local HUD ladder supplies the scaling pattern, not observed bedroom transactions or rent quotes. Anchoring the two-bedroom modelled estimate to ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,334 for a studio, $1,452 for one bedroom, $1,687 for two bedrooms, $2,249 for three bedrooms, and $2,493 for four bedrooms. The associated FY2026 HUD standards are $1,590, $1,730, $2,010, $2,680, and $2,970, respectively. These modelled estimates scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder and preserve its bedroom progression; they are never measured bedroom rents. They support a size-consistent initial comparison only, until the listed home’s actual bedroom configuration, advertised terms, and included charges are established.
Household capacity and observed burden provide a separate ACS lens on the ZCTA. The ACS median household income is $64,538. Applying the current ZIP ZORI to a 30% required-income screen yields $67,480 annually, above that area median household income. The screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and it says nothing about a household’s assets, debts, other income, or a landlord’s criteria. The ZCTA has 22,347 renter-occupied units, or 76.3% of occupied units. In the ACS burden tabulation, 10,880 of those renter households, 48.7%, paid at least that share of income toward rent. This is an observed area distribution, not proof that a particular unit or prospective household will face rent burden.
At the ACS snapshot, the matched ZCTA held 33,978 housing units, of which 4,671 were vacant, a 13.7% vacancy rate. Of the vacant stock, 2,135 units were classified for rent, compared with 735 seasonal units and 211 for-sale units. These describe composition within a survey snapshot, not a count of units currently available to a given searcher. They cannot show whether a certain property is vacant, rent-ready, affordable to a particular household, or offered at the index level. Stock also spans structure types, with 10,202 single-family units and 13,253 units in larger multifamily structures. This count-based composition gives context for the rental market but does not establish turnover, lease terms, building condition, or the rent of any building.
Broader values frame, but do not replace, the ZIP signal. In the City of Tempe context, the median gross rent is $1,743; in the Maricopa County context, the median gross rent is $1,708; and in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context, rent is $1,733. The ZCTA’s ACS median gross rent is below the city and county context values, while ZIP ZORI is below the metro context rent. Those city and county measures are broader median-gross-rent contexts, and the metro measure is a wider rent benchmark; none is an alternate ZIP observation or a property quote. Separately, the ZCTA’s renter concentration and all-housing vacancy rate are higher than their City of Tempe context and Maricopa County context counterparts. This makes the wider comparison useful for scale but not for substituting a city, county, or metro statistic for the ZIP identifier. The metro comparison is especially a wider-market benchmark, not a finding about the availability, terms, or demand for a ZIP property.
Several limits remain material to a property decision. ZORI is a typical asking-rent index rather than the advertised price of a named home; ACS is a ZCTA-based survey with sampling uncertainty; HUD is an administrative standard; and the size figures are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Neither the observed burden share nor the vacancy categories establish outcomes for a particular property, household, or application. A property-level review should verify the advertised asking rent, exact bedroom count, occupancy status, utilities included in rent, mandatory recurring fees, deposits, concessions, lease term, and availability date. It should also establish whether the property’s geography is actually represented by the market identifier. Those checks retain the distinction among sources and prevent an area statistic from being presented as a unit fact.
","findings":[{"body":"At $1,687 in June 2026, 85281 Zillow ZORI is 2.29% below its year-earlier level. The matched ACS 2024 5-year median gross rent is $1,677. The $10 spread does not make the series interchangeable: ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index, while ACS covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities.","title":"Current index and historical reference"},{"body":"The studio, one-, two-, three-, and four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not measured rents. They range from $1,334 to $2,493 and are derived by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local FY2026 HUD ladder. The corresponding HUD standards range from $1,590 to $2,970, confirming the ladder is an administrative input rather than a property-rent dataset.","title":"Bedroom screen is modelled"},{"body":"The ACS median household income is $64,538, while the current ZORI translates to $67,480 under the 30% required-income arithmetic. Renter-occupied units represent 76.3% of occupied units. The ACS burden tabulation records 48.7% of renter households at or above the same income share, an area pattern rather than a prediction for a specific tenant or lease.","title":"Income and burden are separate lenses"},{"body":"The ZCTA has a 13.7% all-housing vacancy rate, with 2,135 units classified for rent among 4,671 vacant units. Its stock includes 10,202 single-family units and 13,253 units in larger multifamily structures. These survey categories illuminate area composition but cannot confirm a specific unit’s readiness, asking terms, or availability.","title":"Vacancy is composition, not listing supply"}],"risks":["Geographic matching risk: the label joins a Zillow ZIP market identifier to a Census ZCTA, but the ZCTA is statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so an address can require separate verification.","Universe-comparison risk: treating ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR as equivalent prices would erase differences in asking rents, occupied homes with selected utilities, and administrative bedroom standards.","Bedroom-model risk: the studio through four-bedroom values inherit ratios from the local HUD ladder and ZIP ZORI anchor; they are modelled screening figures, not measured rents for listings, leases, or buildings.","Property inference risk: area vacancy and rent-burden observations cannot determine whether one unit is vacant, its all-in monthly cost, a household’s burden, or whether an applicant meets any owner’s criteria."],"qa":[{"a":"For 85281, it is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, reported at $1,687 for June 2026. It is not an advertised quote for a named property, an achieved-rent series, a bedroom-specific measurement, or evidence that a unit is available.","q":"What does Zillow ZORI represent here?"},{"a":"ACS 2024 5-year median gross rent is a survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index. Their near numerical level is informative context, but their populations, timing, and included cost concepts should not be merged.","q":"What separates ACS median gross rent from ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. The method scales the ZIP ZORI according to the local HUD bedroom ladder and is anchored at the two-bedroom level. HUD FMR/SAFMR is administrative, so the outputs do not measure listings, signed leases, or individual property rents.","q":"Are the bedroom values direct observations?"},{"a":"Verify the advertised asking rent and whether utilities, mandatory recurring fees, deposits, or concessions alter the total payment. Confirm bedroom configuration, availability status, lease term, and address geography. These checks are required because ZIP, ZCTA, ACS, HUD, and broader context fields cannot supply unit-specific terms or applicant outcomes.","q":"Which property facts remain necessary?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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