Resale conditions create the clearest tension in this ZIP. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026 recorded a $469,894 median sold price, 7.41% below the prior-year reading. It logged 134 homes sold, a 48-day median marketing time, 148 homes of inventory, and 3.4 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 97.54%; 11.55% sold above list, while 32.2% went off market within a fortnight. These are direct for-sale/resale measures of marketed and sold homes, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property-level economics. They provide a contemporaneous sales-market read that must remain separate from the asking-rent series.
Zillow’s ZIP ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, stood at $1,584 in June 2026. Direct Zillow history through June 1, 2026 is backward-looking and places this ZIP in cooling: exact same-month annualized change was -0.38% over one year and -0.53% over three years, after a 2.65% annualized gain over five years. Thus the latest direction confirms the short and intermediate erosion but breaks from the longer positive path. Data coverage is 100% across 138 monthly observations. Across historical monthly returns, annualized variability reached 2.64%. This amount of past variation gives a reader more reason to treat a single current index level as reasonably anchored than if the series were highly erratic, but it does not make it a quoted rent. Separately, a -2.98% maximum drawdown shows that prior peaks were not continuously retained. The transparent national discovery ranks are 2,544 for momentum, 948 for stability, and 2,193 for balance among history-eligible ZIPs; lower ranks are higher. They are backward-looking discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
An identifier distinction keeps the geography precise. The five-digit 85282 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so its survey results should not be assumed to describe each delivery address. For broader context, Tempe city’s context rent is $1,667.30, Maricopa County’s context rent is $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context rent is $1,733; each is a city, county, or metro value rather than the ZIP observation. All three sit above the ZIP index, but they are benchmarks with wider scopes, not substitutes for it.
The ACS and HUD values answer different questions. The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey has median gross rent of $1,745. It describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, rather than new asking rents; the ZIP index is 90.8% of that survey median. The supplied FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder sets a $2,010 standard for a two-bedroom unit. That is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent or a lease quote. Scaling ZIP ZORI by this local HUD bedroom ladder yields modelled, not measured, monthly estimates: $1,253 studio, $1,363 one-bedroom, $1,584 two-bedroom, $2,112 three-bedroom, and $2,341 four-bedroom. The ladder changes relative bedroom sizes; it does not demonstrate actual bedroom-specific asking rents in the ZIP.
The income and burden screens deliberately use separate constructs. Applying the 30% arithmetic screen to the ZIP index yields $63,360 required annual income. The ZCTA’s $79,036 median household income is above that benchmark, and annualized asking rent equals 24.0% of this median income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Yet the ACS count shows 6,820 renter households bearing gross-rent burdens at least at the screen threshold, or 54.6% of surveyed occupied renter households. That rate and the income screen can coexist because they summarize a distribution of actual renter households versus an index-to-median calculation. Neither establishes affordability, burden, or eligibility for a particular person or unit.
Housing composition puts the survey signals in scale but does not identify an available rental. The matched ZCTA contains an estimated 25,593 housing units, with a 7.88% vacancy rate and a 52.97% renter share. Its inventory includes single-family and large-multifamily structures, so neither the total count nor the renter share converts directly to a same-bedroom supply measure. The ACS vacancy result is a five-year statistical estimate of units, not a count of currently marketable rentals. It cannot prove a vacancy, concession, condition, or burden outcome at any particular address; it only frames the aggregate housing and occupancy base behind the survey measures.
When read without merging sources, evidence points to shared cooling but different intensity. Rental history has only mild recent slippage, whereas the direct resale price movement is considerably steeper; that confirms a cooling direction but challenges any reading of the rent index as a complete market summary. The resale time, supply, and sale-to-list signals further describe sales liquidity only; they do not validate a rent, property expense, or lease outcome. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals a 4.05% cross-source screening ratio. It is a screening ratio only and cannot be interpreted as a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The gap between the median-income screen and observed renter burden is a separate tension that a blended metric cannot resolve.
Several limits should govern any property-level use. Match the address to the relevant ZIP identifier and ZCTA boundary, then verify the actual asking rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease length, concessions, availability date, and condition for the specific rental. For a resale, verify the sold-price record, listing terms, marketing exposure, and whether the observed property is comparable in type and timing. Check which local HUD ladder basis applies before using the modelled bedroom scaling. Zillow, ACS, HUD, and Redfin have distinct periods, populations, and definitions; none supplies a forecast, an investment recommendation, or evidence about a particular tenant’s qualification. The practical unresolved question is whether the unit-level facts align with the aggregate indicator being used.
","findings":[{"body":"The asking-rent index declined on both the one-year and three-year same-month comparisons, while the five-year comparison remained positive. Full history coverage and a limited historical drawdown make the record usable as a backward-looking trend series. The divergence between short and long windows is the key reading: recent cooling is visible in the index, but it does not describe the entire multiyear path or predict the next move.","title":"Short-horizon ZORI cooling has not erased the longer history"},{"body":"ZORI captures typical observed asking rents across rental types. ACS gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. HUD’s bedroom ladder is an administrative standard. The supplied bedroom amounts are derived by applying that ladder to ZIP ZORI, so they retain a consistent relative bedroom structure but remain modelled estimates rather than observations of what available units ask.","title":"The ZORI-to-ACS and HUD gaps are definitional, not competing rent quotes"},{"body":"The required-income calculation compares a current asking-rent index with the area’s median household income. The burden statistic instead reports a surveyed share of occupied renter households crossing the stated gross-rent threshold. Since the inputs, populations, and timing differ, a pass on the arithmetic screen does not negate observed burden, and burden cannot classify a specific household or listing.","title":"Median-income arithmetic and renter burden answer different screens"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling resale data show price and liquidity conditions for homes sold or marketed in the ZIP, not leasing outcomes. Its much larger annual price decline supports the broad cooling direction visible in ZORI but is more pronounced than rent movement. The rent-to-price percentage is therefore only a cross-source screening ratio; without property-level rent and expense facts, it cannot represent property economics.","title":"Resale cooling is sharper than rental cooling"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin differ in timing, populations, definitions, and geography. Combining their dollar figures as though they were interchangeable can manufacture a conclusion that none of the individual series directly supports.","The ZCTA survey is statistical rather than a USPS delivery geography, and its estimates are aggregate. A particular address may not share the observed household mix, vacancy condition, utility treatment, or rent burden.","Bedroom figures are scaled from ZIP ZORI using the HUD ladder rather than measured listings. Their usefulness depends on the relevant bedroom classification and HUD ladder basis matching the property under review.","Redfin price, marketing, and sale-to-list statistics reflect rolling ZIP resale activity. They cannot establish lease demand, actual in-place rent, expenses, condition, or value for any individual rental property."],"qa":[{"a":"These measures do not sample the same universe. ZORI is a ZIP asking-rent index built from observed listings and blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities. Different timing, geography construction, household occupancy, and utility treatment can leave the two figures apart without either serving as a correction to the other.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent higher than ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They start with the blended ZORI level and apply the relative pattern in the supplied HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than a sample of asking rents. Consequently, the results should not be treated as observed asking rents, advertised availability, or rent comparables for a specific unit.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"Direct Zillow history documents prior same-month changes, full coverage, monthly-return variability, and maximum drawdown only through its stated endpoint. The shorter horizons show cooling, whereas the five-year result stays positive. The discovery ranks are transparent national comparison tools with lower rank stronger; they are backward-looking descriptions, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or evidence that a particular listing will rent at the current index.","q":"What does the history say about current asking rent?"},{"a":"No. Redfin observes the rolling three-month ZIP resale market: median sold prices, price change, sale volume, market time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It does not report rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by the median sold price is a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"Do Redfin resale measures determine rental economics?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":837.673036},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":845.002943},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":845.499452},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":847.215929},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":849.661144},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":856.608656},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":859.856344},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":869.888607},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":874.710808},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":876.40536},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":874.385688},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":880.660212},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":887.493653},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":893.043577},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":891.388085},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":891.460981},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":894.783101},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":902.882712},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":912.233134},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":913.141387},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":915.838812},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":915.654413},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":922.708632},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":928.894666},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":932.194727},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":936.483534},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":945.004269},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":955.383129},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":963.186112},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":964.620568},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":968.54443},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":970.030971},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":979.373608},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":990.189017},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":998.796002},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":996.730926},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":995.583604},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1003.366823},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1014.401144},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1028.587341},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1031.753806},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1040.380527},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1047.187531},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1058.899752},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1062.321739},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1063.463006},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1062.099989},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1074.430369},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1087.63512},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1096.758768},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1099.325269},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1098.518592},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1107.680762},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1115.022907},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1122.706411},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1129.860669},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1139.627706},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1151.631784},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1165.687593},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1174.667656},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1183.548301},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1191.268743},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1198.197038},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1193.712695},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1181.87327},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1176.760925},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1177.859605},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1176.680146},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1183.751217},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1190.951989},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1210.361907},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1228.638375},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1241.571683},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1259.761877},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1277.35912},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1309.083692},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1347.399861},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1389.608423},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1431.499397},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1477.950472},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1517.556075},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1548.254328},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1558.446632},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1569.058833},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1579.733944},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1584.224033},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1580.703035},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1587.168034},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1600.730071},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1611.707101},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1613.145582},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1603.95778},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1603.263891},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1600.141116},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1601.228401},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1603.014286},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1600.196411},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1602.315164},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1613.592253},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1619.500828},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1612.989219},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1609.353045},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1609.59823},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1614.241895},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1596.448804},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1597.719704},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1594.31394},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1596.81433},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1597.764392},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1599.157668},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1600.857746},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1598.407016},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1606.542333},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1609.801149},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1613.19112},{"period":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